绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译.docx

1、绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译外文文献翻译原文及译文文献出处：Pack Damon . The research of green new energy velucles fJ. Journal of Cleaner Production，2017, 1(6): 17-26.原文The research of sreen new energy vehiclesPack Damon1. IntroductionProvision of environmentally sustainable (or green) private transport throughout the world fac

2、es two main challenges. The first is urban and even regional air pollution, particularly in the rapidly growing cities of the industrializing world. The second is global climate change, caused mainly by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. These two barriers to green c

3、ar mobility differ in several important ways. First, road traffic air pollution problems are more localized, because of the short atmospheric lifetimes of most vehicle pollutants and Thus regional solutions are often not only possible, but also essential - Australian cities, for example, can (and mu

4、st) solve their air pollution problems themselves- Matters are very different for global climate change. Except possibly for geo-engineering measures such as placing large quantities of sulphate aerosols in the lower stratosphere or erecting huge reflecting mirrors in space，one country cannot solve

5、this problem alone. Climate change is a global problem. Nevertheless, it is possible for some countries to freeload if the majority of nations that are important GHG emitter.Second，there is agreement that air pollution, especially in urban areas，is potentially a serious health hazard，and that road t

6、ransport can contribute greatly to urban pollutant level For these reasons, governments in many countries are already taking effective action on air pollution. But until recently, climate change was not recognized as a major problem by some key policy makers, and all countries have yet to take effec

7、tive action on reducing emissions.Third, vehicular air pollutant problems，at least in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, are already showing themselves amenable to various technical solutions, such as low-sulphur fuels, unleaded petrol, and three-way catalyti

8、c converters. Some researchers have argued explicitly that global transport emissions can be reduced to very low levels with a combination of two key technical solutions - large improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and a switch to alternative transport fuels, such as liquia biofuels and hydrogen

9、derived from renewable energy. A much larger group implicitly support this position by projecting large future increases in car numbers and travel and even a globally interconnected highway system.Further，governments throughout the world have endorsed theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climat

10、e Change (which came into effect in 1994), but at the same time are expanding their road networks，encouraging their car industry，and planning for future car traffic expansion. Overall, the majority of both researchers and policy makers appear to consider that climate change poses no threat to global

11、 car mobility. Nevertheless, other researchers argue in general that technology cannot solve the serious environment/resource problems the world faces global warming in particular. Also，the authors themselves have earlier questioned whether the current global transport system can continue on its pre

12、sent course. This paper attempts to resolve these competing claims.Transport, of course, is not the only source of either air pollution or global climate change. All energy-using sectors, and even land-use changes，can contribute to these two problems. It is thus important that any attempts to reduce

13、 transport emissions do not compromise similar efforts in other sectors of the economy. It is also possible that emission reduction policies in one country could adversely affect reduction efforts elsewhere.The aim of this paper is to show that private car travel cannot form the basis for a sustaina

14、ble global system of surface passenger travel. To simplify the analysis, only GHG emissions will be analysed. We argue that the risk of global climate change requires effective reductions in the next two decades or so, whereas technical solutions to drastically cut car traveFs greenhouse gas emissio

15、ns are only possible in a much longer time frame, and, in some cases，possibly not even then. Overall, the world will have to rely on alternative modes (various forms of public transport， walking and cycling), and，for much of the industrialised world， much-reduced levels of personal travel as well. O

16、f course, it is quite possible that the limited time frame available is also much too short for travel reductions and modal shifts of the magnitude proposed here. The conclusions of this paper have relevance for freight and air transport, and also for other sectors of the economy faced with the need

17、 for deep cuts in GHG emissions.2. Global climate change and global car travelThe vast majority of climate scientists support the view that emissions of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, particularly C02, from fossil fuel combustion and land-use changes, cause global warming by altering the e

18、arths radiation balance. The 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that sea levels are rising，glaciers and sea ice cover are diminishing，and 11 of the 12 warmest years since 1850 have occurred in the 1995-2006 period. Their latest estimate (with a probability o

19、f 66% or greater) for climate sensitivity - the equilibrium increase in global temperature resulting from a doubling of C02 in the atmosphere - is from 2.0 C to 4.5 C, with a best estimate of 3-0 C . Atmospheric C02 concentrations are currently rising by some two parts per million (ppm) annually.Mor

20、eover, large positive feedback effects could result in emissions, and thus temperatures，rising much more rapidly than expected on the basis of present fuel and land-use emission releases. One such feedback is large-scale methane release from northern tundra as permafrost melts. There is some prelimi

21、nary evidence that this process is already underway and. Further，studies of past climate have shown that abrupt climatic change can occur over the course of a decade or even a few years and James Hansen，a prominent US climate scientist，has argued on the basis of paleoclimatic data that if further gl

22、obal warming is not limited to 1 C beyond the year 2000 value， feedbacks could add to business-as-usual emissions，making the world a different planet. His 1 C rise above the year 2000 figure is only slightly below the EU value of 2 C above the pre-industrial value, given the estimated 0.74 C warming

23、 that has occurred since 1880. He concludes that we can only continue present trends for GHG emissions for another decade or so before committing the climate to irreversible change. Here, we take a position intermediate between den Elzen and Meinshausen and Hansen, and assume that by 2030 global emi

24、ssions of both C02 and other GHGs must be reduced to 25% their current value - a four-fold reduction in current global emissions.Thus, to limit dangerous climatic change, annual emissions to the atmosphere of C02 and other greenhouse gases will need to be greatly curtailed, unless geo-engineering or

25、 carbon sequestration techniques can be successfully deployed in time. Equal emissions per capita for all countries，as advocated by contraction and convergence proponents，are likely to be the only acceptable proposal, since it is improbable that industrialising countries such as China or India will

26、permanently accept lower per capita emissions than the already industrialised countries. They could go further，and demand parity in cumulative per capita emissions over the past century for C02, a long-lived gas. Such an approach would require the already industrialised countries to reduce emissions

27、 to near zero. In 2003，global C02 emissions from fossil fuels averaged 4.2 t/capita, but varied widely from country to country. The US, Australian and Japanese emissions were, respectively, 4.8, 43 and 2.2 times larger than the world average, implying reduction factors of roughly 19, 17 and 9. (The

28、US reduction value of 19 by 2030 can be compared with Hussmanns calculated value of 66，although his reduction is for 2050.) Although many tropical African countries emitted less than 5% of the average global value，most of the industrializing world would also need to reduce emissions. In the absence

29、of reliable national data, we assume here that other GHG emissions for each country follow the same pattern as fossil fuel C02 emissions.What are the implications for transport, and private car travel in particular, of these proposed reductions in GHG emissions? iransport contributed an estimated 19

30、% of global GHG emissions in 1971, but 25% in 2006 In 2003，there were roughly 715 million cars in the world (including light commercial vehicles in the US)，and 6270 million people, for an average car ownership of 114/1000 persons and. But when considered at the national level，ownership is far from n

31、ormally distributed Although the global average is 114/1000 persons，only about 18-5% of the world population lived in countries with between 20 and 200 cars/1000 persons. A further 65% lived in countries with less than 20 cars/1000 (including China and India), and the remaining 16.5% in countries wi

32、th greater - usually far greater - than 200 cars/1000.Clearly, car ownership is presently heavily polarised; people either live in highly motorised countries - usually in the OECD - or in countries with very low levels of car ownership. But the picture is changing. People in all countries，but partic

33、ularly those in Asia，want to own a car; indeed, Asia reportedly leads the world in aspirations for car ownership . Where incomes are rising rapidly, as in populous China and India, so too are car sales and ownership. In 2006, China，with sales of 4.1 million，became the worlds third largest market for cars, overtaking Germany (3.4 millio