1999 german economic development and population migration flow analysis of the quantitative relatio.docx

1999 german economic development and population migration flow analysis of the quantitative relatio.docx

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1999germaneconomicdevelopmentandpopulationmigrationflowanalysisofthequantitativerelatio

1999-2009Germaneconomicdevelopmentandpopulationmigrationflowanalysisofthequantitativerelationship

Abstract:

Economicdevelopmentandpopulationmigrationflowsbetweentheinherentcorrelation.Germany,asEurope’seconomicandsocialdevelopmentofthetypicalcase,itseconomicdevelopmentandpopulationgrowthhasastrongrepresentationoftherelationship,ofcourse,theeconomicrelationshipbetweenmigrationandpopulationflowtrajectoriesshowedstrongpersonality.Nevertheless,itseconomicdevelopmentandpopulationmigrationflowscanstillgiveourrelationshipastronginspiration.Thiscanbethrougheconomicdevelopmenttoguidetherationalflowofthepopulation,thesamecanalsoResettlementinregulationandmanagementtostimulateeconomicdevelopmentandpromoteeconomicandsocialdevelopmentandprosperity.

Keywords:

economicstructure,economicdevelopmentandMigrantPopulation

Upsanddowns-GermanEconomicAnalysisofDevelopmentTrack

Germany’seconomywasonceapioneerinpromotingeconomicdevelopmentinEurope,butinrecentyearshasalwayshoveredattheedgeofstagnation,sinceGermanreunificationin1990,theGermaneconomyisweakappetite.Sincereunificationin1990to2001,Germanyhasexperiencedfourrecessions,includingthe1999-2000internationaloilpricesandtheU.S.economicrecessiontriggeredbythesevereeconomicrecessioninlate2001forthefourthroundofeconomicrecession.In2001,Germany’seconomicgrowthratefrom3.0%in2000,fellsharplyandintomildrecession,mainlyduetothreefactors:

First,thestructureofaging;twoexternalshocks;Thirdcycleconduction.Thus,theGermangovernmenthastakenaseriesofmeasuresofmacroeconomicpolicytostimulateeconomicgrowth,mainly:

fiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyfurtherexpansionefforts,notbreakthe‘MaastrichtTreaty’Standardsandunderthepremiseofincreasingpressuredeficitspending,2000thefouryearsoftheEuropeanCentralBankcutinterestratesinGermanyhaveamoresignificantstimulus;implementationoftaxreformandtaxcutstostimulatetheeconomybyreducingcorporateandpersonalincometaxtoachieveexpansionarypolicyobjectives;adjustlaborunionrelations,stability,andimprovetheemploymentsituation;positiveparticipationintheinternationalcoordinationofpapersdownloaded.

2003Germaneconomyfellto-0.2%,since1993tobecomethemostdifficultperiod,thedifficultyismainlymanifestedin:

2002economicrecoveryhasalreadyprovedvain,grewbyonly0.2percent,rankingtheEUattheend;unemploymentscalerankshighnolessthantheannualaveragemonthlyunemploymenthoveringat4.06millionscale;deficitamountedto77.2billioneuros,accountingfor3.7percentofGDP,breakingthe‘Mayo’standard.

In2004,theGermaneconomyisgraduallyrecovering,GDPgrowthrateof1.2%,followedbyeconomicgrowthtendstobegood,especiallysince2006,theeuro-zoneeconomicrecoveryisaccelerating,themaindrivingforceisfromGermany.Simultaneousincreaseinbothdomesticandforeigndemand,areallcontributingtoeconomicgrowthinthefirstquarter（seeFigure1）.TheEurostatdatashowthatin2006GDPgrowthto3.2%inGermany,becomingthefastestgrowingyearoverthepastdecade.Germanywasthemainrisksfacingtheeconomyishowtocutgovernmentspending,thedebtratiocontrolintheEU’s‘stabilityandgrowthpact’withinthelimitsprescribed.Butitisworthnotingthatinflationarypressurescannotbeignored,since2006,internationalcrudeoilpricesincreasedbyabout40%,copperandotherbasemetalspricesalsorosesharply,theeurozoneannualinflationratefor16consecutivemonthsexceed2%oftheEuropeanCentralBank’spolicyobjectives,2006Germaninflationrateof1.8%in2007to2.3%andmore,therefore,anti-inflationisalsoanimportanttaskoftheGermaneconomy（seeTable1）.

Germany’seconomicgrowthin2007fellto0.7%comparedtolastyear,in2008bytheU.S.subprimemortgagemarketcrisis,theappreciationoftheeuroandtheinternationalmarketoilpricesandotherfactors,economicgrowthsloweddownto1.3%,particularlyGDPinGermanyin2009thebiggestdropinnearly40years,is-5%.Meanwhile,in2008therateofinflationincreasedto2.8%didnotfall,theeconomicsituationismoresevere.2009undertheinfluenceofthefinancialcrisis,theinflationratealongwithadeclineineconomicgrowthwassignificantlylower（seeFigure2）.

GermanFederalMinistryofEconomicAffairsinJanuary22,2010releaseof‘2009AnnualEconomicReport’forecaststhattheGermaneconomyin2010anegativegrowthof2.25%,isGermany’sfastestone-yearhistoryoftheeconomicdownturn.Exportsandbusinessinvestmentinequipmentwillappearlargerlandslide,respectively,comparedwith2009decreasedby8.9%and11.9%,thenumberofunemployedwillincreaseby50millionpeople,theunemploymentrateroseto8.4%.

irregularmovement-GermanstateanalysisMigrantPopulation

Fromthetotalpopulationpointofview,Germany’stotalpopulationhasexperiencedindecades,andthenslowlyincreasingtrendofslowdecline,accordingtoEurostatstatistics,theGermanpopulationfrom2008to82.22millionin2009downto82million,butalsoreducethe200,000.Accordingtothedataanalysis,despitethefederalgovernmentintroducedtheauxiliaryyoungparentstoencouragefertilitypolicy,butin2009theGermannewbornsdigitalstilldown.Accordingtostatistics,in2009theGermanfigureisstillhigherthantheneonataldeaths,thusreducingthepopulationof190,000.Meanwhile,in2009thenumberofpeopleremovedfromGermany,isalsohigherthantheinflux.Itwasdeterminedthatin2030,in2050,theGermanpopulationwillbereducedto77.203millionand6,874.3million,equivalenttoonly2010populationsizeexpectedfor94%and84%,therateofdeclinerelativelyrapidly.Bythen,theabsolutesizeofthepopulationinGermanywillfallintoashortagesituation,theirsocio-economicdevelopmentcausedaseriesofseriousadverseornegativeeffects（Army,2009）.

Sincethe1990s,Germanyandforeigncountries’migrationbetweenthetotalnumberofpeoplecontinuetoshowadownwardtrend,thedeclinein1998closetothemaximum,whilethetotalnumberofpeoplemovingoutalmostshowingconsiderabletendency,littlechange.However,withthetotalnumberofpeoplemovingintothenetmigrationtrendsremainbroadlyconsistentdeclining.

Atthesametime,from1991to2007amongGermancitizensinGermanywithforeignnationshaveshownasignificantmigrationofthecharacteristicsofthetotalpopulationshowedadownwardmoveintothestate,whilethetotalnumberofpeoplemovingout,butriseslowlymovedoutin2005greaterthanthetotalpopulationofthetotalpopulationmoved,andmovedtotheGermanracewasrepatriatedtothetotalnumberofpersonsmovingalmostparalleltomaintainthestate,showingadownwardtrend,andlargerdecline（seeFigure3）.

Germanimmigrantsfromoverseasrisingtrendofpopulationdeclineinrecentyearsbecomeyetanotherleakchannels.December31,2007,inGermany,thenumberofforeignresidentsstayingaccumulated6744.9thousand.Thesourcestructure,showedasubstantialincreasecomparedto2006thepopulationofthecountryoforiginincludingBulgaria（19.9%）,Luxembourg（13.3%）,Romania（15.3%）,Montenegro（168%）andSerbia（171%）.However,theGermanandforeignpopulationmovementsbetweenthedatashowthatin2006emigratedGermanthanreturntoGermany’snumberreached66,000in2007,161,000Germancitizenshaveemigrated.FromGermanyandabroad,populationmovementsbetweensuccessivedataanalysis,Germantransnationalnetinflowofpopulationdifferenceappearssignificantdiminishingtrend.Netinternationalmigrationfromthenumberofchangesofview,relyingontheinfluxofdomesticnaturalpopulationgrowthtomakeupthegaphasbeenunabletocompletethetask.

ForeigncitizensinGermanyandforeignstates’migrationin1991-2007haveshownadecliningtrend,whilemaintainingroughlythesamenumberofpeoplemovingoutthenumberhasbeenrelativelystable,butthenumberofpeopleseekingasylumimmigrationcontinuedtodecline.Germanpopulationinadditiontolabormigrationflows,visitingendures,thenumberofpeopleseekingasylumimmigrationaccountedforaconsiderablepart,butwiththegrowingeconomicandsocialdevelopment,therelativereductioninthenumberofpeopleindistress,andbecauseasylumandimmigrationpopulationofGermanyisrelativelydecreased（seeFigure4,Figure5）.

Germany’seconomicdevelopmentandpopulationmigrationflowanalysisofthequantitativerelationshipResettlementinoneimportantreasonistheeconomicfactor,theworld‘migrationtrendisalsostrongevidence,thevastmajorityofcurrenttrendsinmigrationfromrelativelybackward,poorregions,theflowisrelativelydeveloped,affluentareas.Andwhilecomparingthelawisthattheflowofmigrantsandmobilefrequencyscaleeconomicdevelopmentiscloselyrelatedtotheeconomicdevelopmentofbettertimes,economicgrowthandimprovethewholesocialenvironmentpresentingaprosperousappearance,thistimetoResettlementThescaleandspeedisalsoincreasing.Germany’seconomicdevelopmentanditstrajectoryResettlementinfullyconfirmstheaboveargument.

2000Germaneconomyingoodshape,atthesametime,theratioofpopulationtomaintainahighlevelofmigrationflows,amountingto1.63%,butwiththerisinginternationaloilpricesandtheU.S.recession,in2001theGermaneconomydownwardpressureby20003.2%to1.2%growth