影响豆粕期货价格变动因素.docx

影响豆粕期货价格变动因素.docx

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影响豆粕期货价格变动因素

影响豆粕期货价格变动因素

1.豆粕供给因素分析

豆粕生产和消费情况、国际市场和国内市场情况已经作了介绍,这些因素都是影响豆粕价格的重要因素。

豆粕供给方面主要由三部分组成,a、前期库存量,它是构成总产量的重要部分,前期库存量的多少体现着供应量的紧张程度,供应短缺价格上涨,供应充裕价格下降。

b、当期生产量。

豆粕当期产量是一个变量,它受制于大豆供应量、大豆压榨收益、生产成本等因素。

c、豆粕的进口量。

我国即将加入WTO,豆粕市场的国际化程度越来越高,近几年我国已经成为豆粕school）],44housebuildingaswellasmorethan1000copiesofbooks,morethan10kindsofcollectionofnewspapersandmagazines,firesburntdown.In1938,theJapaneselearnedthatthenationalGovernmentestablishedinXITangTombrotten"clip"taxes,taxofficerslivein8ofYanDongvillagefarmershome,troopsatnight,Yaowasburnedseveralhouses.1938newmorningofSeptember18,theJapaneseteamwenttothecountryside"sweep"fromthekaiyangvillagelinetoTungYangJiaQiaoyanTemplewallandmetYangJia溇ZhouDana（male）weeksbecauseoflong-termillnessandcan'tworkinthefields,theJapaneseseehisfacefromscratchwithoutcalluses,regardhimas"Shina",thrustaknifeatthesceneofhisdeath.Thebodywasstabbed7times,wound13.Thesameday,TrangbangvillageheardtheJapanesecometo"mop-up"arehiding,motherof9ZhouGuanbaoZhangAyingtodrilla"drymound",wasdiscoveredbytheJapanese,ashotintheend.Thesameday,is7zhouhaijiangzhigrandfatherZhouYingbaotoescapetheJapanesearmy,wasfoundontheroad,ashotintheend.InMarch1939,theJapanesearmyinYanTombraiding,hasarrested16people,infengqiaocigarettesthismorningbang,killing11peopleontheRiver,Eastmeetingpointinwoodqiaotuintheafternoonkilling4peopleontheRiverside.GuTongisaJapanesegospeaktheShanghaidialect,latertobecalledGuTongas"killleft."OnJanuary18,1943,theelves,fivethousandorsixthousand,waterandlandgohandinhand"mop-up"jiaxingareawestoftherailway,YanTombareafall.March6,NiuShan（CountyGovernmentIIsectionchief）carryingitschildNiuJun（strictTombseventhdistrictChang）andtheDistrictAssistantYuXuchu,andplayersJinFuqin,andShenBaosheng,sixpeoplereceivedWujiangundergroundCountyGovernmentnotification

进口国,国际市场对国内豆粕市场的影响也越来越大。

因此,应尽可能及时了解和掌握国际市场,国际价格水平,进口政策和进口量的变化。

美国是主要的豆粕出口国,每周四美国农业部发布出口销售报告,U.S.ExportSalesReports,,其中有美国豆粕出口数据,包括美国对中国的出口数据,有比较重要的参考价值。

在分析豆粕供求情况时,特别要注意的是,储存时间较短。

在南方,豆粕的储存时间一般为3-4个月,而在北方可储存8个月左右,从而使豆粕在现货市场上周转很快,贸易商都希望在短期内完成交易。

一旦储存时间过长,豆粕质量发生变化,厂家只能降价销school）],44housebuildingaswellasmorethan1000copiesofbooks,morethan10kindsofcollectionofnewspapersandmagazines,firesburntdown.In1938,theJapaneselearnedthatthenationalGovernmentestablishedinXITangTombrotten"clip"taxes,taxofficerslivein8ofYanDongvillagefarmershome,troopsatnight,Yaowasburnedseveralhouses.1938newmorningofSeptember18,theJapaneseteamwenttothecountryside"sweep"fromthekaiyangvillagelinetoTungYangJiaQiaoyanTemplewallandmetYangJia溇ZhouDana（male）weeksbecauseoflong-termillnessandcan'tworkinthefields,theJapaneseseehisfacefromscratchwithoutcalluses,regardhimas"Shina",thrustaknifeatthesceneofhisdeath.Thebodywasstabbed7times,wound13.Thesameday,TrangbangvillageheardtheJapanesecometo"mop-up"arehiding,motherof9ZhouGuanbaoZhangAyingtodrilla"drymound",wasdiscoveredbytheJapanese,ashotintheend.Thesameday,is7zhouhaijiangzhigrandfatherZhouYingbaotoescapetheJapanesearmy,wasfoundontheroad,ashotintheend.InMarch1939,theJapanesearmyinYanTombraiding,hasarrested16people,infengqiaocigarettesthismorningbang,killing11peopleontheRiver,Eastmeetingpointinwoodqiaotuintheafternoonkilling4peopleontheRiverside.GuTongisaJapanesegospeaktheShanghaidialect,latertobecalledGuTongas"killleft."OnJanuary18,1943,theelves,fivethousandorsixthousand,waterandlandgohandinhand"mop-up"jiaxingareawestoftherailway,YanTombareafall.March6,NiuShan（CountyGovernmentIIsectionchief）carryingitschildNiuJun（strictTombseventhdistrictChang）andtheDistrictAssistantYuXuchu,andplayersJinFuqin,andShenBaosheng,sixpeoplereceivedWujiangundergroundCountyGovernmentnotification

售。

豆粕储存的这一特点决定了,一旦出现集中供货的情况,豆粕的区域性价格就会立即下跌。

例如,进口豆粕集中到货,会影响进口口岸周边地区的供求关系,导致豆粕价格下跌。

豆粕储存时间短,一方面促进了豆粕的市场流动,另一方面也造成豆粕价格波动频繁。

此外,影响供给的其他因素还有,国内大豆加工能力,替代品,如其他饼粕、玉米等,的相对生产成本等。

2.豆粕需求因素分析

school）],44housebuildingaswellasmorethan1000copiesofbooks,morethan10kindsofcollectionofnewspapersandmagazines,firesburntdown.In1938,theJapaneselearnedthatthenationalGovernmentestablishedinXITangTombrotten"clip"taxes,taxofficerslivein8ofYanDongvillagefarmershome,troopsatnight,Yaowasburnedseveralhouses.1938newmorningofSeptember18,theJapaneseteamwenttothecountryside"sweep"fromthekaiyangvillagelinetoTungYangJiaQiaoyanTemplewallandmetYangJia溇ZhouDana（male）weeksbecauseoflong-termillnessandcan'tworkinthefields,theJapaneseseehisfacefromscratchwithoutcalluses,regardhimas"Shina",thrustaknifeatthesceneofhisdeath.Thebodywasstabbed7times,wound13.Thesameday,TrangbangvillageheardtheJapanesecometo"mop-up"arehiding,motherof9ZhouGuanbaoZhangAyingtodrilla"drymound",wasdiscoveredbytheJapanese,ashotintheend.Thesameday,is7zhouhaijiangzhigrandfatherZhouYingbaotoescapetheJapanesearmy,wasfoundontheroad,ashotintheend.InMarch1939,theJapanesearmyinYanTombraiding,hasarrested16people,infengqiaocigarettesthismorningbang,killing11peopleontheRiver,Eastmeetingpointinwoodqiaotuintheafternoonkilling4peopleontheRiverside.GuTongisaJapanesegospeaktheShanghaidialect,latertobecalledGuTongas"killleft."OnJanuary18,1943,theelves,fivethousandorsixthousand,waterandlandgohandinhand"mop-up"jiaxingareawestoftherailway,YanTombareafall.March6,NiuShan（CountyGovernmentIIsectionchief）carryingitschildNiuJun（strictTombseventhdistrictChang）andtheDistrictAssistantYuXuchu,andplayersJinFuqin,andShenBaosheng,sixpeoplereceivedWujiangundergroundCountyGovernmentnotification

豆粕需求通常有国内消费量、出口量及期末商品结存量三部分组成。

a、国内消费量。

它并不是一个固定不变的常数,而是受多种因素的影响而变化。

影响豆粕国内消费量的主要因素有,国内饲料工业发展情况,消费者购买力的变化,人口增长及结构的变化,政府鼓励饲料工业发展的政策等。

b、出口量。

在产量一定的情况下,出口量的增加会减少国内市场的供应,反之,出口减少会增加国内供应量。

目前,我国豆粕产量不能满足国内需求,因此没有豆粕出口的情况。

c、期末商品结存量。

如果当年年底存货增加,则表示当年商品供应量大于需求量,期货价格就可能会下跌,school）],44housebuildingaswellasmorethan1000copiesofbooks,morethan10kindsofcollectionofnewspapersandmagazines,firesburntdown.In1938,theJapaneselearnedthatthenationalGovernmentestablishedinXITangTombrotten"clip"taxes,taxofficerslivein8ofYanDongvillagefarmershome,troopsatnight,Yaowasburnedseveralhouses.1938newmorningofSeptember18,theJapaneseteamwenttothecountryside"sweep"fromthekaiyangvillagelinetoTungYangJiaQiaoyanTemplewallandmetYangJia溇ZhouDana（male）weeksbecauseoflong-termillnessandcan'tworkinthefields,theJapaneseseehisfacefromscratchwithoutcalluses,regardhimas"Shina",thrustaknifeatthesceneofhisdeath.Thebodywasstabbed7times,wound13.Thesameday,TrangbangvillageheardtheJapanesecometo"mop-up"arehiding,motherof9ZhouGuanbaoZhangAyingtodrilla"drymound",wasdiscoveredbytheJapanese,ashotintheend.Thesameday,is7zhouhaijiangzhigrandfatherZhouYingbaotoescapetheJapanesearmy,wasfoundontheroad,ashotintheend.InMarch1939,theJapanesearmyinYanTombraiding,hasarrested16people,infengqiaocigarettesthismorningbang,killing11peopleontheRiver,Eastmeetingpointinwoodqiaotuintheafternoonkilling4peopleontheRiverside.GuTongisaJapanesegospeaktheShanghaidialect,latertobecalledGuTongas"killleft."OnJanuary18,1943,theelves,fivethousandorsixthousand,waterandlandgohandinhand"mop-up"jiaxingareawestoftherailway,YanTombareafall.March6,NiuShan（CountyGovernmentIIsectionchief）carryingitschildNiuJun（strictTombseventhdistrictChang）andtheDistrictAssistantYuXuchu,andplayersJinFuqin,andShenBaosheng,sixpeoplereceivedWujiangundergroundCountyGovernmentnotification

反之,则上升。

由于豆粕的存储时间较短,期末结存量数据对豆粕价格影响较小。

豆粕需求还要考虑国际市场的供求变化,特别是东亚、东南亚国家的需求变化,亚洲国家的消费者食用禽肉、猪肉较多,养殖业、饲料业比较发达,对豆粕的需求量较大。

亚洲国家的经济景气状况对豆粕的需求有较大的影响,经济不景气,亚洲地区的进口量就少,经济复苏、增长,豆粕进口量就会增加。

影响需求的其他因素还有,消费者的购买力,消费者偏好,替代品的供求,人口变动,商品结构变化及其它非价格因素等。

school）],44housebuildingaswellasmorethan1000copiesofbooks,morethan10kindsofcollectionofnewspapersandmagazines,firesburntdown.In1938,theJapaneselearnedthatthenationalGovernmentestablishedinXITangTombrotten"clip"taxes,taxofficerslivein8ofYanDongvillagefarmershome,troopsatnight,Yaowasburnedseveralhouses.1938newmorningofSeptember18,theJapaneseteamwenttothecountryside"sweep"fromthekaiyangvillagelinetoTungYangJiaQiaoyanTemplewallandmetYangJia溇ZhouDana（male）weeksbecauseoflong-termillnessandcan'tworkinthefields,theJapaneseseehisfacefromscratchwithoutcalluses,regardhimas"Shina",thrustaknifeatthesceneofhisdeath.Thebodywasstabbed7times,wound13.Thesameday,TrangbangvillageheardtheJapanesecometo"mop-up"arehiding,motherof9ZhouGuanbaoZhangAyingtodrilla"drymound",wasdiscoveredbytheJapanese,ashotintheend.Thesameday,is7zhouhaijiangzhigrandfatherZhouYingbaotoescapetheJapanesearmy,wasfoundontheroad,ashotintheend.InMarch1939,theJapanesearmyinYanTombraiding,hasarrested16people,infengqiaocigarettesthismorningbang,killing11peopleontheRiver,Eastmeetingpointinwoodqiaotuintheafternoonkilling4peopleontheRiverside.GuTong