财务管理培训课件lecture8(ch8).pptx

财务管理培训课件lecture8(ch8).pptx

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,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,Chapter8,FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition,ProjectAnalysis,BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,2001,TopicsCovered,HowFirmsOrganizeTheirInvestmentProcessSome“WhatIf”QuestionsSensitivityAnalysisBreakEvenAnalysisFlexibilityinCapitalBudgetingDecisionTreesOptions,CapitalBudgetingProcess,CapitalBudget-Thelistofplannedinvestmentprojects.TheDecisionProcess1-Developandrankallinvestmentprojects2-Authorizeprojectsbasedon:

GovtregulationProductionefficiencyCapacityrequirementsNPV,CapitalBudgetingProcess,CapitalBudgetingProblemsConsistentforecastsConflictofinterestForecastbiasSelectioncriteria（NPVandothers）,HowToHandleUncertainty,SensitivityAnalysis-Analysisoftheeffectsofchangesinsales,costs,etc.onaproject.ScenarioAnalysis-Projectanalysisgivenaparticularcombinationofassumptions.SimulationAnalysis-Estimationoftheprobabilitiesofdifferentpossibleoutcomes.BreakEvenAnalysis-Analysisofthelevelofsales（orothervariable）atwhichthecompanybreakseven.,SensitivityAnalysis,ExampleGiventheexpectedcashflowforecastslistedonthenextslide,determinetheNPVoftheprojectgivenchangesinthecashflowcomponentsusingan8%costofcapital.Assumethatallvariablesremainconstant,excepttheoneyouarechanging.,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continued,NPV=$478,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedPossibleOutcomes,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedNPVCalculationsforPessimisticInvestmentScenario,NPV=（$121）,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedNPVPossibilities,BreakEvenAnalysis,ExampleGiventheforecasteddataonthenextslide,determinethenumberofplanesthatthecompanymustproduceinordertobreakeven,onanNPVbasis.Thecompanyscostofcapitalis10%.,BreakEvenAnalysis,BreakEvenAnalysis,AnswerThebreakevenpoint,isthe#ofPlanesSoldthatgeneratesaNPV=$0.Thepresentvalueannuityfactorofa6yearcashflowat10%is4.355Thus,AnswerSolvingfor“PlanesSold”,BreakEvenAnalysis,OperatingLeverage,OperatingLeverage-Thedegreetowhichcostsarefixed.DegreeofOperatingLeverage（DOL）-Percentagechangeinprofitsgivena1percentchangeinsales.,OperatingLeverage,Example-Acompanyhassalesoutcomesthatrangefrom$16milto$19mil,Dependingontheeconomy.Thesameconditionscanproduceprofitsintherangefrom$550,000to$1,112,000.WhatistheDOL?

Flexibility&Options,DecisionTrees-Diagramofsequentialdecisionsandpossibleoutcomes.DecisiontreeshelpcompaniesdeterminetheirOptionsbyshowingthevariouschoicesandoutcomes.TheOptiontoavoidalossorproduceextraprofithasvalue.TheabilitytocreateanOptionthushasvaluethatcanbeboughtorsold.,DecisionTrees,NPV=0,Donttest,Test（Invest$200,000）,Success,Failure,PursueprojectNPV=$2million,StopprojectNPV=0,