PPP项目财务测算模型(公路).xls

PPP项目财务测算模型(公路).xls

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PleaseensurethatExcelsMacrosareenabledbeforeusingthemodel.ViabilityanalysismodelforPPPprojectsRoadssectorGovernmentofIndiaMinistryofFinanceDepartmentofEconomicAffairsDevelopercontactsDevelopedby:

EconomicConsultingAssociatesinfoeca-Withassistancefrom:

CRISILInfrastructureAdvisoryGoto:

UserGuideVersioninformationVersionv5.2Date27June2011UserGuideColourcodesandbuttonsThedatainputsforthemodelaresetintwoways:

usingthespinnerbuttonsor,wherethereisnospinner,enteringthenumbersdirectly.SpinnerbuttontochangevariableinLARGEstepsSpinnerbuttontochangevariableinSMALLstepsThemodelusesacolour-codetoindicatewheredatashouldbeenteredbytheuser:

Cellvalue=PPPvariables,USERDEFINED.Enterdatainthebluecells,orusethespinnerstochangethecellvalue.Theseareaspectsoftheprojectwhichcanbevariedtotestviability.Cellvalue=PPPparameters,USERDEFINED.Theseareaspectsoftheprojectoreconomywhichtheusermaychangebutwhichwould,ingeneral,notbethesubjectofwhat-if?

testing.Theusershouldchangetheseinfrequently.Cellvalue=Calculationcell.NOTUSERDEFINED.Cellvalue=Resultscell.Thesecellsshowresultsforimportantpartsofthemodel.Ahyperlinktotherelevantworksheet.BriefdescriptionofthemodelThismodelistohelpaProjectOfficerevaluatethefinancialviabilityofaPPPprojectintheroadssector.Viabilityistestedfromtheperspectiveofaprivatepartner（ie,looksataftertaxreturnscomparedtoexpectedafter-taxROEforacommercialdeveloper）.TheProjectOfficershouldalsohaveasenseofthelevelofgovernmentsupportorotherprojectcharacteristics（eg.Tolllevels）thatareacceptabletothepublicsector.Themodeldoesnottestwhethertheprojectiseconomicallyjustifiedoroffersvalue-for-money（VFM）comparedtothepublicsectoralternative.Themodelismeanttoberelativelysimple.AmoredetailedmodelwillbecreatedaspartoftheFeasibilityStudy.Themodelcontainssixmainsheetsinthefollowingsequence:

Set-upandinformationinputsheets:

1.Set-up:

HeretheuserentersbackgroundassumptionssuchastypeofPPP,theprojectlifeandmacroeconomicinformation.2.Demand:

Theinitialdemandandforecastgrowthratesareenteredhere.3.CapEx:

TheCapitalExpenditureisenteredonthissheet（forCapExprojectsonly-thesheetishiddenfornon-CapExprojects）Set-upCapExRevenueOpExCoverViabilityAnalysisUserGuideDemandWorksheetname4.OpEx:

Theoperatingexpenditurerelatedtotheprojectisenteredonthissheet5.Revenue:

Heretheusercansetsourcesandlevelsofrevenuefortheproject.Revenuecanbefromtollstousers,orfromgovernmentpaymentstotheconcessionaire.6.ViabilityAnalysis:

Thisprovidesanoverallsummaryoftheprojectsfinancialviabilityfromaprivateinvestorsperspective.GraphsshowingprojectcashflowsandkeyfinancialratiosareprovidedaswellaskeysummaryvaluessuchastheNPVandIRR.Financialstatementsandcalculationsheetsarealsoprovidedforinformationpurposes.TheExportsheetallowsoutputsfromtheFinancialViabilitymodeltobeusedintheVFMIndicatortool.UsetheExportresultsbuttononSet-upsheettocreateanexportfile.Theuserisencouragedtotrywhat-if?

analysisofprojectviability.Theusershouldenterafirstestimateoftheprojectparametersinsteps1-5andthentestviabilitybyrefiningkeyparameters（suchastiming,chargesandpayments,andfinancingmix）inordertoseeifviabilityisachievable.Thiscanbedonebymakingchangestotheprojectset-up,inparticularbyusingtheViabilityAnalysissheetandontheRevenuesheet.Theusercannavigatebetweenthesheetsusingthebuttonsatthetop.Note:

ExcelMacrosmustbeenabledforthemodeltofunctionfully.TheseshouldbeenabledwhenthefileisopenedorusingExcelssecuritysettings.ThemodelcandisplaythenewRupeesymbol.Todisplayit,youmusthavetherupiforidianrontinstalledonyourcomputer.Ifitisnotinstalled,therupeesymbolwillappearasanR.TheCapExsheetishiddenforOpEx-onlyprojects.Allcashflowsareassumedtooccurattheendofeachfiscalyear,exceptwherenoted.Themodelallowsforperiodsmeasuredinhalf-years（forexample,ifconstructionwasexpectedtotake2.5years）.Datesmightthenbeexpressedasmiddle-pointsofayear:

eg,2013.5isthemiddleoftheyear2013.CashFlowIncomeStatmentBalanceSheetResultsExportThedatainputsforthemodelaresetintwoways:

usingthespinnerbuttonsor,wherethereisnospinner,enteringthenumbersdirectly.SpinnerbuttontochangevariableinLARGEstepsSpinnerbuttontochangevariableinSMALLsteps=PPPvariables,USERDEFINED.Enterdatainthebluecells,orusethespinnerstochangethecellvalue.=PPPparameters,USERDEFINED.Theseareaspectsoftheprojectoreconomywhichtheusermaychangebutwhichwould,ingeneral,notbethesubjectofwhat-if?

testing.Theusershouldchangetheseinfrequently.ThismodelistohelpaProjectOfficerevaluatethefinancialviabilityofaPPPprojectintheroadssector.Viabilityistestedfromtheperspectiveofaprivatepartner（ie,looksataftertaxreturnscomparedtoexpectedafter-taxROEforacommercialdeveloper）.TheProjectOfficershouldalsohaveasenseofthelevelofgovernmentsupportorotherprojectcharacteristics（eg.Tolllevels）thatareacceptabletothepublicsector.Themodeldoesnottestwhethertheprojectiseconomicallyjustifiedoroffersvalue-for-money（VFM）comparedtothepublicsectoralternative.Themodelismeanttoberelativelysimple.AmoredetailedmodelwillbecreatedaspartoftheFeasibilityStudy.1.Set-up:

HeretheuserentersbackgroundassumptionssuchastypeofPPP,theprojectlifeandmacroeconomicinformation.3.CapEx:

TheCapitalExpenditureisenteredonthissheet（forCapExprojectsonly-thesheetishiddenfornon-CapExprojects）ViabilityAnalysis5.Revenue:

Heretheusercansetsourcesandlevelsofrevenuefortheproject.Revenuecanbefromtollstousers,orfromgovernmentpaymentstotheconcessionaire.6.ViabilityAnalysis:

Thisprovidesanoverallsummaryoftheprojectsfinancialviabilityfromaprivateinvestorsperspective.GraphsshowingprojectcashflowsandkeyfinancialratiosareprovidedaswellaskeysummaryvaluessuchastheNPVandIRR.TheExportsheetallowsoutputsfromtheFinancialViabilitymodeltobeusedintheVFMIndicatortool.UsetheExportresultsbuttononSet-upsheettocreateanexportfile.Theuserisencouragedtotrywhat-if?

analysisofprojectviability.Theusershouldenterafirstestimateoftheprojectparametersinsteps1-5andthentestviabilitybyrefiningkeyparameters（suchastiming,chargesandpayments,andfinancingmix）inordertoseeifviabilityisachievable.Thiscanbedonebymakingchangestotheprojectset-up,inparticularbyusingtheViabilityAnalysissheetandontheRevenuesheet.ExcelMacrosmustbeenabledforthemodeltofunctionfully.TheseshouldbeenabledwhenthefileisopenedorusingExcelssecuritysettings.ThemodelcandisplaythenewRupeesymbol.Todisplayit,youmusthavetherupiforidianrontinstalledonyourcomputer.Ifitisnotinstalled,therupeesymbolwillappearasanR.Themodelallowsforperiodsmeasuredinhalf-years（forexample,ifconstructionwasexpectedtotake2.5years）.DatesmightthenbeSet-upWarning:

Resettingwilleraseallpreviousmodelsettings.Exportfilename:

Export_FinMod_RoadsCapExprojectwithbrownfieldassetsandUser-charges（tolls）.Expressedinnominalterms.EnterthegeneralassumptionsPPPconcessionperiodPPPconcessionperiod（incl.constructionperiod）10.0YearsSummaryofconstructiontiming:

PleasegototheCapExsheettosettheconstructiondetails.Constructionstartyear2011.0YearTimeuntilallconstructionisfinished2.0YearsConstructionwillbefinishedintimeforstartof2013.0YearStartofprojectoccursbeforetheendofconstructionTRUEOpeningyeartotraffic2011.0YearOperatingperiod10.0YearsPPPfinishesatendof2020.5Macroeconomicvariables15.0%1iiiSet-upCapExRevenueOpExCoverViabilityAnalysisUserGuideDemandIncorporateinflation（nominalterms）Expressinconstant（real）termsExpectedinflation5.0%p.a.Yearofaccounting2011.0TaxRate33.2%MinimumAlternativeTaxRate19.9%Taxexemptionstart2011.0Taxexemptionlength10.0yearsNominalRealCostofequity12.0%6.7%12%Costofdebt-duringconstruction10.0%4.8%10%Costofdebt-duringoperation10.0%4.8%10%Non-capexdiscountrate0.0%0.0%0%Next,goto:

iiiiiDemandiDoestheprojectinvolveCapitalExpenditure?

TRUECapExprojectWillrevenuebecollectedfromtollspaidbyusers?

TRUEUser-charges（tolls）Isitabrownfieldproject（additiontoexistingassets）?

TRUEProjectincludesexisting（brownfield）assetsExportresultsCashFlowIncomeStatmentBalanceSheetResultsExportWarning:

Resettingwilleraseallpreviousmodelsettings.CapExprojectwithbrownfieldassetsandUser-charges（tolls）.Expressedinnominalterms.PleasegototheCapExsheettosettheconstructiondetails.ViabilityAnalysisTrafficCapExprojectwithbrownfieldassetsandUser-charges（tolls）.Expressedinnominalterms.Enterthetraffic（demand）forecastassumptionsTrafficforecast-includesexistingroadSelectthetolledvehiclecategoriesRoadparameters（existing+new）Car/JeepTotalroute-lengthLCV/Mini-busNumberoflanesBusNumberoftollplazasTrucks（2axle）Roadparameters（existingroadonly）Multi-axlevehicleTotalroute-lengthNumberofshoulderlanesNumberoftollplazasFALSEFALSEFALSETrafficinBaseYear,2011（fortollroads）111VehicletypeTotalbaseyearBoothnumber:

Vehiclekm123AnnualAverageDailyTraffic（AADT）:

Car/Jeep-000LCV/Mini-bus-000Bus-000Trucks（2axle）-000Multi-axlevehicle-000Tollboothcharacteristics123Sectionlengthkm000TrafficgrowthFALSEFALSETRUEDemandphaseInitial2ndPhase3rdPhaseCAGR2011.02011.52012.5Car/Jeep0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%LCV/Mini-bus0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Bus0.0%0.0%0.0