一项低碳城市形态规划支持的工具培训课件.pptx

一项低碳城市形态规划支持的工具培训课件.pptx

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1城市模型与规划支持系统1.1规划支持系统在城市规划中的应用探索1.2多尺度的北京城市空间发展模型1.3规划师主体模型：

一项低碳城市形态规划支持的工具1.4囊括方法、软件和模型的规划支持系统框架体系1.5面向空间规划的微观模拟2大模型与定量城市研究2.1大模型及中国应用案例2.2基于OpenStreetMap和兴趣点数据的地块特征自动识别2.3地块尺度中国所有城市的空间扩张模拟2.4中国PM2.5的人口暴露评估2.5利用北京公共交通刷卡数据的若干定量城市研究2.6当前定量城市研究的四项变革3规划设计响应3.1数据增强设计：

新数据环境下的规划设计回应与改变3.2街道城市主义3.3城市规划实施评价：

针对中国城市的分析框架3.4基于人类活动和移动数据的城市增长边界实施评价3.5中国收缩城市及其研究框架城市模型及其规划设计响应3.6历史上的北京规划AppliedUrbanModelsandTheirApplicationsinUrbanPlanning&Design3.6HistoricalcityplansinBeijing1UrbanModelsandPlanningSupportSystems1.Planningsupportsystemsinurbanplanning2.Beijingurbanspatialdevelopmentmodelfamilies1.3PlannerAgents:

Atoolkitforsupportplanningalowcarbonurbanform4.Anappliedplanningsupporttoolkitincludingquantitativemethods,softwareandmodelsinChina5.Urbanmicro-simulationforspatialplanning2BigModelsandQuantitativeUrbanStudies1.Bigmodels:

Severalfine-scaleurbanstudiesforthewholeChina2.Automatedidentificationandcharacterizationofparcels（AICP）withOpenStreetMapandpointsofinterest3.SimulatingurbanexpansionattheparcellevelforallChinesecities4.EstimatingpopulationexposuretoPM2.5inChina5.Buslandscapes:

Analyzingcommutingpatternusingbus/metrosmartcarddatainBeijing6.Fourchangesonquantitativeurbanstudiesinthebigdataera3ApplicationsinUrbanPlanning&Design1.Dataaugmenteddesign（DAD）:

Planning&designinnewdataenvironment2.Streeturbanism3.Evaluationofurbanplanningimplementation:

AnanalyticalframeworkforChinesecitiesandcasestudyofBeijing4.Evaluatingtheeffectivenessofurbangrowthboundarieswithhumanmobilitydata5.ShrinkingcitiesinChinaandtheresearchagenda1INTRODUCTIONLandusepattern（urbanform）,orlanduselayout,isakeypartofphysicalplan（masterordetailed）SpatialdistributionoflanduseanddensityHardtopredictbyaplanningsupportsystem（PSS）ProxyofcarbonemissionandenergyconsumptionLandusepatternscenarioanalysis（LUPSA）mostareparcel-basedCUF（Landis1994）Whatif?

（Klosterman1999）INDEX（Allen2001）iCity（Stevensetal.2007）OtherpapersregardinglanduselayoutoptimizationPlannersinLUPSAtoolsLessattentionwaspaidonthebehaviorofurbanplannersOurresearchquestion:

Howdoplannerscompilelandusepattern?

Whatarerules（preferences）?

Howtoidentifytheserules?

Aretheserulesvaryingamongplanners?

CouldwedevelopaPSSfor“simulating”landusepatternsusingtheidentifiedrules?

Isthepatternassociatewithlowcarbonemission?

BuildingcityinavitroHatnerandBenenson,2007,EPBTheentropyofLEGOCrompton,2012,EPBInthisresearch,wewillidentifyplannerrulesbyQuestionnaireWhatoneplannerwilldoMiningplandrawingsWhatoneplannerhasdoneThenwewilldevelopaPSS（PlannerAgents）,andsimulatelandusepatternusingidentifiedrules.PlannerAPlannerCPlannerBIdeallyandhopefullytosaveplannerstimeandpromoteplancompilationefficiencySupportplanningalowcarbonurbanformE.g.AplanareaIdentifiedrulesof20plannersGenerate20patternsinoneminutebyusingPlannerAgentTheprincipalinvestigatorchoosesaperfectoneAll20plannersfocusonitandproposethefinaldrawingPlannerCsworkassociateswithlowcarbon2PLANNERAGENTSPlannertypesNon-spatialplannersInfrastructure,transportationNotdirectlywithlandusepatternSpatialplannersResponsibleforpreparinglandusepatternChiefplannerConfirmthefinalplanschemeSpatialplanner:

thegeneralprocess1.TotalsinareaForeachtypeoflanduse（e.g.residential,commercialandindustrial）Fromdecisionmakersorforecastedbymacromodels2.ConstraintsGeographicalcontext:

slope,ecospaceInstitutionalconstraints:

developmentrestrictions3.Negotiatingwithnon-spatialplanners（factors）Assumeplannedfacilities,roads,citycenters,CBD,etc.,arereadypriortoplanalandusepatternWeightfactors4.Negotiatingwithcitizens（publicparticipationprocess）NotaccountedinourcurrentresearchSpatialplanner:

simplifiedrulesThetaste（weight）ofeachlanduseonfactorsisdifferent.Theweightcouldbecalibratedusingquestionnaireordataminingonexistingplanarchives（landusewiththehighestprobabilitywouldbeselectedforaparcel）.E.g.,industrialparcelstendtobelocatedalongmaintransportationnetwork,commercialparcelsaroundamenities.b巳QuestionnairesurveyQVirt叫real阳曰RealmodelPlanningrules（requirementsandpreferences）:

PublicfacilityNeighborNaturalreserveParcelsize,formBlockSubwaysiteLocalconditionsFormulatingcomprehensiveconstraintsPlanninglawPlanningguidelinePhysicalgeographicstatusLandusepa“ern2bySPA2Landusepa“ern1M芷e:

thermthxtform.Iati咱lar略usepcttem283isthesar.astf回f町Iandusepcttem1.Landusepattern1constraintsPhysicalgeographicstatusNote:

themethodformulatingland-usepattern2&3isthesameasthatforland-usepattern1.EvaluatinglandusepatternsTheideallandusepatternSPA2SPA1SPA3betweenSPA1andEPAsRANote:

thesteps,forwhichthebackgroundisgrayareconsideredinthisarticle.RAevaluationLandusepatternevaluationSpatialautocorrelation（MoransIandLISA）LandscapemetricsusingFRAGSTATSFEE-MASmodel（Long2011）CalculatingpotentialtransportenergyconsumptionLandusepattern2bySPA2Landusepattern3bySPA3CPACoordinatinglandusepatterns3BEIJINGAPPLICATIONThecentralcityofBeijing1085km218bigzonesBeiingDetailedPlan（-2020）Landuseplanineachzonehasbeenexclusivelydesignedbyaresponsibleplanner,in2007AperfectdataforapplyingPlannerAgents21factorsZone12asanexampleLandusetypeParceldistributionNumberArea（km2）PercentageR11443.850.41C9744.410.41M40.470.004O12118.940.18Total336107.671.00ConstraintsExtractedfromUrbanContainmentPlanofBeijingSeeLongetal2011fordetailsIdentifiedrulesusingmultinomialregressionParameterWeightRCMInterceptC21.70203*.59824*2.24992*.108661.78990*1.50529*C221.69092*1.98993*1.48453*C25.27165*.63531*1.50131*C3.54465*.53033*.09401C4.19670*.20072*.34227C51.01238*.71570*.37010C6.59667*.83476*.57046*CBD3.13736*.73107*7.74911*Exit.77072*.81033*.21059G.06680.14353*.52322*Gov.22590*.11004.78724*Hwst.08708.28315*.95491*Newcty8.33651*.010481.21120Railst.29179*.14296.79214*Rd062.09906*1.19993*1.10308*Rvr.26074*.71772*1.32691*Subst.36312*.57882*.41520*Tam.522991.24361*39.32950*Xzl.31318*.52759*1.24840*Yizhg91.77109*101.64079*33.57548*Zgc1.49658*.1689123.24940*Rulesofthesameplanner,byquestionnaire2.3Location16.CBD0.330.520.15Total20plannerssurveyedinBICP（planners）andPKU（planstudents）Comparisontobeconducted17.Towncenters0.400.470.1318.Developmentzones0.200.290.5119.Riversandwetlands0.430.250.323.Parcelproperties20.Currentlandusetype0.360.310.3321.Parcelarea0.290.300.41CategoryPIFWeightRCM1.Basictopography1.Elevation0.320.310.372.Slope0.300.320.392.Accessibilities2.1Transport3.Airportsfacilities0.260.310.434.Railstations0.260.370.375.Highways0.230.250.516.Mainroads0.300.340.367.Subwaystations0.430.430.138.Busstops0.420.400.192.2Publicfacilities9.Governmentdepartments0.390.350.2610.Entertainmentfacilities0.490.350.1611.Amenities（suchassupermarkets）0.500.320.1912.Medicalandhealthinstitutions0.570.210.2313.Educationalandresearchinstitutions0.580.210.2114.Banksandinsurers0.360.420.2215.Parksandattractions0.550.290.1622.Landprice0.330.320.354.Socioeconomic23.Populationdensity0.360.410.23characteristics24.Employmentrate0.300.370.325.Environment25.Airquality0.460.340.2126.Trafficnoise0.560.280.1727.Vegetationcoverage0.490.280.2328.NIMBYfacilities0.460.360.18ComparisonofminedandsurveyedrulesWhathasdoneandwilldoaregenerallydifferent,intermsoftasteofeachlanduseonvariousfactors.ThreescenariosbydifferentplannersABCLandusetypeParcelnumber（scenarioA）Parcelnumber（scenarioB）Parcelnumber（scenarioC）R163157130C116146182M1178O462616Total336336336EvaluatingscenariosAframeworkforenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissionbasedonplannedlandusepatterns1.1Populationsynthesisforgeneratingresidentandbusinessagents（finishedinBUDEM2）1.2Buildingreconstructionforplannedparcels（inprogress）2Activity-andagent-basedimpactsimulation（challenging）3ImpactaccountingCommutingsectionfinishedLongY,MaoQ,ShenZ,2012,“Urbanform,transportationenergyconsumption,andenvironmentalimpactintegratedsimulation:

Amulti-agentmodel”inZhenjiangShen（ed.）SustainableDevelopmentandSpatialPlan,Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg.AlowcarbonscenarioispossibletobeidentifiedIdeascouldbeborrowedfromothertalks,e.g.YangJiangProposalofaModelingApproachtoAssessUrbanEnergyConsumptionandCarbonEmissionsbasedonSpatialStructureandFormTonyHargreavesEstimatingthebuildingstockfromregionalmodelforecastsanditslowcarbonpotentialZHANGJie,XIEYangUrbanspatialmorphologysimpactonhouseholdtransportationenergyconsumptionFeifeiYu,ChrisZegrasAnintegratedbehavioralmodelforestimatingenergyconsumptionattheneighborhoodscale4CONCLUSIONSConclusionsPlannerAgentsforsupportinglandusepatternscenarioanalysis（LUPSA）LimitedtolanduseplaninthemasterplanlevelAtoolIdentifiedrulesbyquestionnaireanddataminingAverypreliminaryresearchinitsfirststepTestedinthehypotheticalspaceandappliedinBeijingCompileandevaluatelanduseplanquantitativelyPromisinginpromotingworkingefficiencyofplannersJoblessplanners?

ExpectedtosupportplanninglowcarbonaurbanformNextstepsPolishexistingworkEvaluatesimulatedpatternsRulesfordensitydistributionLimitedspatialplanimplementationeffectivenessinChina（around50%outsideplannedurbangrowthboundaries）.SeeHanetal,2009;Longetal,2012;TianandShen,2011Thevalueforpromotingurbanplancompilationefficiency?