Policy(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布拉德某汽车·.pptx

Policy(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布拉德某汽车·.pptx

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,CHAPTER13,StabilizationPolicy,1,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Questions,Whatprinciplesshouldguidestabilizationpolicy?

Whataspectsofstabilizationpolicydoeconomistsargueabouttoday?

Ismonetarypolicyorfiscalpolicymoreeffectiveasastabilizationpolicy?

Howdoesuncertaintyaffectthewaystabilizationpolicyshouldbemade?

2,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Questions,Howlongarelagsassociatedwithstabilizationpolicy?

Isitbetterforstabilizationpolicytobeconductedaccordingtofixedrulesortobeconductedbyauthoritieswithsubstantialdiscretion?

3,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,GovernmentPolicy,TherearetwokindsofgovernmentpolicyfiscalpolicyshiftstheIScurvemonetarypolicyshiftstheLMcurveThegovernmentusespolicytostabilizethemacroeconomybyminimizingtheimpactofshocks,4,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,MonetarypolicyintheU.S.ismadebytheFederalReservewhichisthecentralbanktheprincipalpolicy-makingbodyoftheFederalReservesystemistheFederalOpenMarketCommittee（FOMC）theFOMClowersandraisesinterestratesandincreasesanddecreasesthemoneysupply,5,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFederalReservehasacentralofficeand12regionalofficesthecentralofficeistheBoardofGovernorsinWashington,DCthe12regionalofficesarethe12FederalreservebanksscatteredaroundtheU.S.themembersoftheBoardofGovernorsandthePresidentsoftheregionalFederalReserveBanksmakeuptheFOMC,6,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.1-StructureoftheFederalReserveSystem,7,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.2-CompositionoftheFederalOpenMarketCommittee,8,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFOMCmeetsapproximatelyonceamonthtosetinterestratesemergencymeetingscanalsobescheduledonshortnoticeWhentheFOMCdecidesonapolicychange,itisimplementedimmediatelyittakesonlyminutesforinterestratestoshiftinresponsetoFOMCactions,9,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFOMCchangesinterestratesbycarryingoutopen-marketoperationsinanexpansionaryopen-marketoperation,theFederalReservebuysgovernmentbonds,increasingbankreserves,andloweringinterestratesinacontractionaryopen-marketoperation,theFederalReservesellsgovernmentbonds,decreasingbankreserves,andraisinginterestrates,10,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFederalReservecanalsoalterinterestratesintwootherwaystheBoardofGovernorscanalterlegallyrequiredbankreservestheBoardofGovernorscanlendmoneydirectlytofinancialinstitutionsThesetoolsareusedveryrarely,11,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,FiscalPolicyInstitutions,FiscalpolicyintheU.S.ismanagedbyCongresstheCongresscreatesthetaxlawsthatdeterminetheamountoftaxesimposedbythefederalgovernmenttheCongresssspendingbillsdeterminethelevelofgovernmentpurchasesTaxandspendinglevelsaresetthroughaprocesscalledthebudgetcycle,12,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.4-TheBudgetProcess,13,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,GovernmentExpenditures,MandatoryexpendituresincludespendingforSocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,unemploymentinsurance,andfoodstampsDiscretionaryexpendituresmustbeappropriatedeachyearbyCongresstheseincludedefensespending,NASA,highwayspending,educationspending,andsoforth,14,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.5-MajorFederalGovernmentExpendituresbyCategory,1960-2000,15,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.6-FederalGovernmentDiscretionarySpending,ExcludingDefense（2000）,16,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,FiscalPolicyInstitutions,Becauseofthewaythebudgetprocessissetup,makingfiscalpolicyintheU.S.iscomplicatedandtime-consumingthetimebetweenwhenapolicyproposalismadeandwhenitbecomeseffective（theinsidelag）cantakeyearstheinsidelagassociatedwithmonetarypolicychangescanbemeasuredindaysorweeks,17,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,TheEmploymentActof1946establishedCongresssJointEconomicCommitteeandthePresidentsCouncilofEconomicAdvisorscalledonthePresidenttoestimateandforecastthecurrentandfuturelevelofeconomicactivityintheU.S.announcedthatitwastheresponsibilityofthefederalgovernmenttofosterandpromotefreeenterpriseandthegeneralwelfare,18,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,BeforetheGreatDepression,thegeneralbeliefwasthatthegovernmentcouldnotstabilizetheeconomyandshouldnottrytodosoItwaslargelyduetothewritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesthateconomistsandpoliticiansbecameconvincedthatgovernmentscouldhaltdepressionsandsmoothoutthebusinesscycle,19,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,Becauseofthelowandstableinflationandunemploymentratesofthe1960s,economistsandpoliticiansthoughtthatthebusinesscyclewasdeadHowever,inthe1970s,expectedinflationroseandthePhillipscurveshifteduptheresultwasstagflation,20,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.7-TheU.S.PhillipsCurve（s）,1955-1980,21,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,Bytheendofthe1970s,manyeconomistswereconvincedthatactivemonetarypolicydidmoreharmthangoodtheyarguedthattheU.S.wouldbebetteroffwithan“automatic”monetarypolicyoneideaistofixthemoneystocktoastablelong-rungrowthpaththeinstabilityofvelocityhasreducedthenumberofadvocatesofthispolicy,22,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.8-TheVelocityofMoneybefore1980,23,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ThePowerandLimitsofStabilizationPolicy,Economiststodayhavevariedviewsastohowthecentralbankandfiscalauthoritiesshouldmanagetheeconomysome（suchasMiltonFriedman）feelthatactivistattemptstomanagetheeconomyarelikelytodomoreharmthangoodsomebelievethattheappropriategovernmentpolicycandoalottostabilizetheeconomyaftershocksoccur,24,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ThePowerandLimitsofStabilizationPolicy,Eventhemostactivistofeconomistsrecognizethelimitsofstabilizationpolicystabilizationpolicyrequiresustoknowwheretheeconomyisandwhereitisgoinguselarge-scalemacroeconomicmodelstoforecastthefuturesearchforleadingindicatorsthelevelofthestockmarketisoftenused,25,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheLucasCritique,Expectationsofthefutureaffectdecision-makinginthepresentRobertLucasarguedthat,becauseexpectationsofthefutureincludeexpectationsofgovernmentpolicies,ifpoliciesarechangedthestructureoftheeconomymaychangeaswelleconomicmodelsfromthepastmaynotbeusefulinforecastingthefutureeffectsofpolicy,26,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,LeadingIndicators,TheindexofleadingindicatorscontainstencomponentsTheleadingindicatorthathasbeenmostcloselywatchedisthemoneysupplytherearefourmeasuresofthemoneysupply（M1,M2,M3,andL）thesefourmonetaryaggregatesdonotbehaveinthesameway,27,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.9-DifferentMeasuresoftheMoneyStockBehaveDifferently,28,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheMoneyMultiplier,OpenmarketoperationschangethemonetarybasetheeffectsonthemoneysupplyarelessdirectandlesscertainChangesinthemonetarybasecausechangesinthemoneysupplythroughaprocesscalledthemoneymultiplier（）,29,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheMoneyMultiplier,Themoneymultipliercanbeaffectedbythethecurrency-to-depositsratiothathouseholdsandbusinesseskeepandthelevelofexcessreservesheldbybanks,（curr/dep）=currency-to-depositsratio（req/dep）=ratioofrequiredreserves（exc/dep）=excessreserves-to-deposits,30,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure13.10-ChangesintheCurrency-to-DepositsRatio,31,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,LongLags&VariableEffects,Evenwithreliableforecasts,changesinpolicyaffecttheeconomywithlonglagsandhavevariableeffectsChangesininterestratestaketimetoaffectinvestment,aggregatedemand,andrealGDPThelevelofGDPtodayisdeterminedbywhatlong-runriskyinterestratesexistedmorethanayearandahalfago,32,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Monetaryvs.FiscalPolicy,AttheendoftheWorldWarIIera,mosteconomistsandpolicymakersbelievedthattheprincipalstabilizationpolicytoolwouldbefiscalpolicyToday,theoverwhelmingconsensusisthatmonetarypolicyhasprovenitselftobefasteractingandmorereliablethanfiscalpolicy,33,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompa