产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译.docx

产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译.docx

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产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译

产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目:

Industrialstructureandeconomicstability出处:

Appliedeconomicletters

作者:

SherrillShaffer

原文:

Motivatedbypriorresultspredictingcontrastinglinkagesbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicstability,wepresentexploratoryempiricalevidenceonthisimportantissue.Consistentwiththeturnoverhypothesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywherebusinessestablishmentsinallsectorswerelarger,suggestinganoffsettingbenefittothefirst-momentcostsofestablishmentsizeidentifiedbypreviousresearch.Consistentwiththejob-matchinghypothesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywheremoreestablishmentspercapitaoperatedinallsectors.Similarbutlessconsistentresultswerealsofoundregardingthestabilityofincomegrowth.

IntroductionandBackground

ThefundamentalimportanceofeconomicperformancehasspawnedanextensiveliteratureontheempiricaldeterminantsofeconomicgrowthseeRajanandZingales,1998;Levineetal.,2000forprominentexamples.OnerecentdiscoveryisthatcommunitiesorlocalregionstendtoexperiencemorerapidgrowthofincomeoremploymentwherebusinessesaresmallerShaffer,2002,2006a,b.Aseparatestrandofresearch,meanwhile,hasdemonstratedtheimportanceofstudyingthevolatilityofgrowthratesratherthanmerelytheirmeansRameyandRamey,1995;Kurz,2004;Ismihan,2005;Bekaertetal.,2006.ItisrelevantinthisregardthatseveralstudiesDavisandHaltiwanger,1992;Rob,1995;Davisetal.,1996havefoundthatjobsatsmallerfirmstendtobelesspermanentthanatlargerfirms;whileIlmakunnasetal.2005havesuggestedthatsuchturnovermayactuallybeonereasonforfasterproductivitygrowth,anunexploredimplicationisthatthevolatilityofemploymentandincomemaybehigherwherebusinessesaresmallerthe‘turnoverhypothesis’.

Conversely,heterogeneityamongdecision-makersduetohumanfallibilitycanresultingreatervariabilityofeconomicperformanceinmorecentralizeddecisionprocessesSah,1991;SahandStiglitz,1991;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002,possiblysuggestingthatalocaleconomymayexhibitgreaterstabilitywheretheaveragefirmsaresmallerormorenumerous.AsimilaroutcomeispredictedtotheextentthatacentralizeddecisionprocessesarelesssuccessfulatmanagingconflictandbdistributionalconflictsimpairefficientadjustmentstoexogenousshocksRodrik,1999;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002.

Inviewofthesecontrastingconsiderations,animportantempiricalquestioniswhetherestablishmentsizeandothermeasuresofindustrialstructuremaybesystematicallyassociatedwithsecondmomentmeasuresofeconomicperformance.

Thisarticleaccordinglypresentspreliminaryevidenceoflinkagesbetweenselectedmeasuresofindustrialstructureandthevolatilityoflocalincomeandemploymentgrowthrates.Weusethreemeasuresofindustrialstructure,eachdistinguishedbybroadsector.AsinShaffer2002,wemeasureaverageestablishmentsizebynumberofemployeesand,alternatively,bydollarsofvalueadded,shipmentsorreceipts.Wealsolookatestablishmentspercapita,motivatedbytwoopposingconsiderations.Findinganewjobshouldbeeasierinamarketwithmoreemployersinagivensector,leadingtomorestablelevelsorgrowthratesofincomeandemploymentthe‘job-matchinghypothesis’.But,ceterisparibus,smallerfirmswilltendtopermitthecoexistenceoflargernumbersoffirms,inwhichcasethedocumentedemploymentturnoveratsmallerfirmsdiscussedabovewilltendtooffsetthestabilizingbenefitofmorenumerousfirms.Eachofourmeasuresofindustrialstructureiscompiledseparatelyforthemanufacturing,wholesale,retailandservicesectors.

Werelatethesemeasuresofstructuretotwosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,theSDofannualrealpercapitaincomegrowthratesandtheSDoftheannualgrowthrateoftotalestablishmentemployment.Theresultscontributetotwoseparatestrandsoftheliterature,onempiricalcovariateswithgrowthvolatilityandonmacroeconomiceffectsofestablishmentsizeandothermeasuresofindustrialstructure.Wefindforallsectorsthatlargerestablishmentsandmoreestablishmentspercapitaareassociatedwithmorestableemploymentgrowthrates,consistentwiththeturnoverandjob-matchinghypotheses.Thesamelinkagesarefoundforsomebutnotallofthesectorswithregardtothevolatilityofgrowthratesinrealpercapitaincome.

Thenextsectionintroducestheempiricalmodelandthesample.SectionIIIpresentstheresults,whileSectionIVconcludes.

TheModelandSample

Weembedourkeyvariablesinastandardlinearempiricalgrowthequation,

1

WhereYisameasureofeconomicperformanceasdiscussedabove,isanestimatedinterceptterm,sisameasureofindustrialstructureasdiscussedabove,xisavectorofcontrolvariablesdiscussedbelow,andareestimatedcoefficientsandisastochasticerrorterm.AsinBekaertetal.2006,ourSDsofeconomicgrowthratesaremeasuredovera5-yearperiod.Asinpriorstudiesofeconomicgrowth,thecontrolvectorincludesthenaturallogarithmofpopulation,thedensityofpopulationpersquaremileoflandarea,ameasureofeducationandinitialmedianhouseholdincome.

PopulationisameasureofmarketsizeasinCetorelliandGambera2001.ItisalsosimilartothetotallaborforcevariableusedinO’huallachainandSatterthwaite1992andcanbeinterpretedasmeasuringurbanizationeconomies.Ifjob-matchingoccursmorequicklyorefficientlyinmorepopulousareas,thentheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableshouldbenegativeanotherimplicationofthejob-matchinghypothesisintroducedabove.

Populationdensityhasbeenfoundsignificantlyrelatedtoseveralfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,possiblyduetoscaleeffectsortosuperiormatchingbetweenfirmsandworkersindensermarketsCicconeandHall,1996;Anderssonetal.,2004;Carlinoetal.,2007;Strumskyetal.,2005.Ifthesebenefitsinfluenceeconomicstability,asonemightexpect,thentheestimatedcoefficientonpopulationdensityshouldbenegativeinourmodel.

Educationismeasuredasthepercentageofpopulationaged25andoverwhohavecompletedhighschool,andreflectstheaccumulatedlevelofhumancapital.ItissimilartomeasuresusedinpreviousstudiesofeconomicgrowthsuchasRajanandZingales1998,Levineetal.2000andCetorelliandGambera2001,withtheoreticallinkagestoaveragegrowthratesexploredbyTeles2005.

ArelatedmeasureofeducationhasbeenusedinatleastonestudyofgrowthvolatilityBekaertetal.,2006.Inaddition,educationwasfoundtobepositivelyassociatedwithsectoralemploymentgrowthinUSmetropolitanareasbyOhuallachainandSatterthwaite1992.Ifeducationcontributestoeconomicstabilityaswell,itsestimatedcoefficientinourregressionsshouldbenegative.

Initialmedianhouseholdincomecanreflectaconvergenceeffectinfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,asnotedbyBarroandSala-i-Martin1992.Thesamelogicwouldnotapplytosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,renderingthesignandsignificanceoftheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableanopenempiricalquestion.However,asimilarvariableinitialpercapitaGDPhasbeenusedinatleastonepriorstudyofgrowthvolatilityBekaertetal.,2006.

Table1summarizesthedata.Oursamplecomprisesmorethan2000USnonmetropolitancounties,measuringeconomicperformanceduring1991?

1995andstructuremeasuresasof1987.Metropolitanareasareexcludedbecausetheirbordersaregenerallynotcoterminouswithindividualcounties,confoundingmeasurementproblemsforvariablesdrawnfromcounty-leveldata.Thoughnotreportedinthetable,thepairwisecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenaverageestablishmentsizeandestablishmentspercapitarangedbetween-0.21and0.18,andwerejust-0.07inthewholesalesectorand0.07inthemanufacturingsector.Thesesmallandhighlyvariablecorrelationsindicatethatthetwocategoriesofstructurevariablesreflectstatisticallyseparatedimensionsofindustrialstructureinoursample.

Theselectionofperformancedataasofseveralyearsfollowingthestructuredatahelpstoreducethelikelihoodofreversecausalityalthough,commontoallempiricalgrowthstudies,causalitycannotbedefinitivelyestablished.Thislagstructurealsominimizesthepotentialforendogeneitybias,astheregressorsarepredetermined.

Results

Table2reportstheregressionestimatesfortheSDofrealpercapitaincomegrowthrates,whileTable3reportsestimatesfortheSDofemploymentgrowthrates.Asindustrialstructureismeasuredinthreewaysforeachoffoursectors,eachtablereports12regressions.Duetomissingorzeroestablishmentdataforafewcountiesineachsector,thevariousregressionsutilizeslightlydifferingnumbersofobservations,asreportedinthetables.ThesignificancelevelsarecomputedfromSEscorrectedforheteroscedasticity.

InTable2,thevariousstructuremeasuresarestatisticallysignificantineightofthe12regressions.Percapitaincomeisfoundtogrowmoresteadilywheremanufacturing,retailandwholesaleestablishmentsemploymoreworkers,orwherewholesaleestablishmentsarelargerasmeasuredbyvalueofannualshipments.Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththeturnoverhypothesisdiscussedabove.

Conversely,steadiergrowthisseenwherewholesaleestablishmentsemployfewerworkersorincountieswithfewerwholesaleestablishmentspercapitaormoremanufacturingestablishmentspercapita.Thecontrastingestimatesforthewholesalesectormayreflectnonlinearitiesintheunderlyingr