The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom survey evidence.docx

The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom survey evidence.docx

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ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdomsurveyevidence

ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdom:

surveyevidence

作者:

Tudela,Merxe;Young,Garry.

出版物信息:

BankofEngland.QuarterlyBulletin43. 4（Winter2003）:

417-427.

摘要:

TheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaroundL3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:

26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesaboveL17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.

全文文献:

HeadnoteTheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.Thisarticlesummarisesthemainresults.

（1）AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaround£3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:

26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Around10%ofborrowerssaidthattheirunsecureddebtwasaheavyburdentotheirhouseholds,similartoearliersurveys.Forpurposesofcomparisonovertime,thequestionswerebasedonthoseusedinearliersurveys.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesabove£17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.Therecentrapidgrowthinhouseholddebthasbeendrivenbyhighratesofbothsecuredborrowing,throughmortgages,andunsecuredborrowing,throughpersonalloans,overdraftsandcreditcards.Whiletheaggregatestockofunsecureddebt（£164billionatend-2003Q2）issmallinrelationtothestockofmortgagedebt（£714billion）andhouseholdsectorgrosswealth（£5,547billion,includinghousing）,itsfastgrowthhasraisedquestionsaboutwhetheranincreasingnumberofpeoplehaveborrowedmorethantheycaneasilyaffordtorepay.Thiswouldbemorelikelyifunsecuredborrowingisincreasinglyconcentratedamongthosewithrelativelylowincomesandfewassets.Itsbuild-upcouldalsoleaveothersmorevulnerabletounexpectedchangesintheircircumstances.Thesepossibilitiesmighthaveimplicationsforbothmonetarypolicyandfinancialstability.Anassessmentoftheextentofcurrentandpotentialproblemsassociatedwiththegrowthofunsecureddebtrequiressomeinvestigationofhowthedebtisdistributedamongindividualborrowers.Thisarticleissolelyconcernedwiththedistributionofunsecureddebtandonlydiscussesmortgageborrowingtotheextentthatthisisusefulindistinguishingthecharacteristicsofborrowers.AnimportantsourceofinformationonthefinancialpositionofindividualadultsandhouseholdsistheBritishHouseholdPanelSurvey（BHPS）,whichsince1991hasaskedbroadlythesamegroupofpeopleabouttheireconomicandsocialcircumstances.However,themostrecentinformationonunsecureddebtintheBHPSisfor2000.ThiswasanalysedindetailbyCox,WhitleyandBrierley（2002）.Theyfoundthatthehouseholdswiththehighestlevelsofbothmortgageandunsecureddebtstendedalsotohavethehighestlevelsofincomeandnetwealthinboth1995and2000.Buttheyalsofoundthatdebttoincomeratioswerehighestforlow-incomehouseholds.ThesurveyInordertoupdatethisanalysis,morerecentevidencehasbeenobtainedfromaspeciallycommissionedsurveyfromNMGResearch,thatinOctober2003askedanationallyrepresentativesampleof1,950adultsabouttheirunsecureddebt.UsingthesamequestionsasintheBHPS,peoplewereaskedaboutthetypesofdebttheyhad,theamountstheyowedandwhethertheyconsideredthedebttobeaburdentotheirhousehold.

（2）Abroadsummaryofthesurveymethodologyandexactwordingofquestionsisincludedintheannex.Only11%ofintervieweesrefusedtosaywhethertheyhadanyunsecureddebtornot.Butofthosewithdebt,33%didnotsayhowmuchtheyowed.Thismaywellreflectuncertaintyabouttheamounttheyoweratherthanawishtoconcealit.Arecentsurvey,CitizensAdvice（2003）,explicitlyaskedpeoplewhethertheyknewhowmuchtheyowedintotalonalloftheircreditcommitments.Itfoundthat31%ofthoseowingsomethingoncredits/loansdidnotknowhowmuchtheyowed.InformationfromtheNMGResearchSurveysuggeststhattheperceivedburdenofdebtamongthosewhodonotsayhowmuchtheyoweisnotdifferentfromthatamongthosewhodoreporttheamounttheyowe.Onthisbasis,weassumethattheamountowedbythosewhodonotrevealtheirdebtisnotsystematicallydifferentfromtheamountowedbythosewhodorevealit.

（1）ParticipationTableAoutlinessomeofthekeyfindingsconcerningtheproportionofpeopleusingdifferentmethodsofborrowing（theparticipationrate）.Foreachtypeofdebtinstrument,peopleareaskednottoincludeanyborrowingthattheyexpecttopayoffinfullbytheendofthemonth.Thisisintendedtoexcludeborrowing,mainlyoncreditcards,thatisdoneonatemporarybasis,becauseitisaconvenientwayofmakingtransactions.

（2）

Intotal,34%ofrespondentshavesometypeofunsecureddebt.Byinstrument,15%ofrespondentsowemoneyonacreditcard,13%haveapersonalloan,8%owemoneyoncataloguepurchasesand7%haveanoverdraft.Ingeneral,participationvariesbroadlypositivelywiththelevelofhouseholdincomeformosttypesofborrowing,exceptDSSsocialfundloans,notavailabletothoseonhighincomes,andborrowingthroughcataloguesandmailorder,whichisusedatasimilarratethroughouttheincomedistribution.Studentloansareconcentratedinthelowest-incomegroup,probablyindicatingthatahighproportionofborrowersarestillstudying.Theoverallrateofparticipationintheunsecureddebtmarketishighestforthosewithannualhouseholdincomeofbetween£25,000and£34,999,aroundtwicethatforthosewithhouseholdincomebelow£9,500.AveragelevelsofdebtbyhouseholdincomeanddebtinstrumentTableBsetsouttheaverageamountofdebtperborrower.Intotal,theamountborrowedisalsostronglyrelatedtohouseholdincome,withaveragedebtofaround£1,800fordebtorswithhouseholdincomeintherange£4,500-£9,499andnearly£6,000forthosewithhouseholdincomeinexcessof£60,000.Theexceptiontothispatternisfordebtorsinthelowest-incomegroup,whereaveragedebtis£2,400,reflectingadisproportionatenumberofpeoplewithstudentdebtinthisgroup.Whiletheparticipationoflow-incomehouseholdsasborrowersintheoverdraftandcreditcardmarketsisrelativelylow,theaverageamounttheyborrowusingtheseproductsisrelativelyhigh.Forexample,theaverageoverdraftamongthosewithincomeoflessthan£4,500isclosetotheoverallaverage,whiletheaveragecreditcarddebtofthosewithhouseholdincomeofbetween£4,500and£9,499isabovetheoverallaverage.Bycontrast,borrowingisstronglyincreasingwithincomeforpersonalloansand（toalesserextent）hirepurchase（HP）agreements,possiblyreflectingtheiruseasamethodoffinancingirregularlarge-ticketincome-relatedspending.Fortheseinstruments,borrowershavelittlediscretiontoincreasetheirdebtwithoutthepermissionoflenders.Onaverage,borrowingthroughstudentloans,personalloans,HPagreementsandcreditcardsisforlargeramountsthanthroughoverdrafts,catalogueormailorderfinanceandDSSsocialfundloans.Theoverallaveragedebtofborrowersis£3,500.

RobustnessTheaveragesintheindividualcellsinTableBneedtobetreatedwithcarebecausethesamplesizeissmallinsomecases（particularlyforOtherloans'）,althoughtheoverallaveragesforincomegroupsandtypesofloansarelikelytoberelativelyreliable.Moregenerally,therobustnessofthefiguresonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelscanbeassessedbycomparingthemwithotherevidence.TableCsummarisesinformationonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelsfromothersurveys.Somedifferenceistobeexpectedsimplybecauseeachsurveyisbasedonasmallsampleofamuchlargerpopulation.Moreover,thefiguresarenotexactlycomparablebecausesomesurveys,suchasthatbyNMGResearch,askabouttheborrowingofindividualadultswhileothersconsiderthepositionofhouseholds.EvidencefromtheBHPS,whichconsidersboth,suggeststhatparticipationratesareabout8percentagepointshigherforhouseholdsthanindividuals.Thisisnottheonlydifferenceinthatsomesurveysprompttheintervieweeaboutthetypesofdebttheymayhave.

（1）Takingthesedifferencesintoaccountsuggeststhat,withtheexceptionoftheKPMGandCitizensAdvicesurveys,thereisaconsensusthataround40%-50%ofhouseholdsand30%-40%ofadultshavesomeformofunsecureddebt.Theprobablecauseofthe