公司理财规划课件009.ppt

公司理财规划课件009.ppt

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Copyright2007byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinChapter9MakingCapitalMakingCapitalInvestmentInvestmentDecisionsDecisions1-19-1KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstandhowtodeterminetherelevantcashflowsforaproposedinvestmentUnderstandhowtoanalyzeaprojectsprojectedcashflowsUnderstandhowtoevaluateanestimatedNPV11-29-2ChapterOutlineProjectCashFlows:

AFirstLookIncrementalCashFlowsProFormaFinancialStatementsandProjectCashFlowsMoreonProjectCashFlowsEvaluatingNPVEstimatesScenarioandOtherWhat-IfAnalysesAdditionalConsiderationsinCapitalBudgeting21-39-3RelevantCashFlowsThecashflowsthatshouldbeincludedinacapitalbudgetinganalysisarethosethatwillonlyoccuriftheprojectisacceptedThesecashflowsarecalledincrementalcashflowsThestand-aloneprincipleallowsustoanalyzeeachprojectinisolationfromthefirmsimplybyfocusingonincrementalcashflows31-49-4AskingtheRightQuestionYoushouldalwaysaskyourself“WillthiscashflowchangeONLYifweaccepttheproject?

”Iftheansweris“yes,”itshouldbeincludedintheanalysisbecauseitisincrementalIftheansweris“no”,itshouldnotbeincludedintheanalysisbecauseitisnotaffectedbytheprojectIftheansweris“partofit,”thenweshouldincludethepartthatoccursbecauseoftheproject41-59-5CommonTypesofCashFlowsSunkcostscoststhathaveaccruedinthepastOpportunitycostscostsoflostoptionsSideeffectsPositivesideeffectsbenefitstootherprojectsNegativesideeffectscoststootherprojectsChangesinnetworkingcapitalFinancingcostsTaxes51-69-6ProFormaStatementsandCashFlowCapitalbudgetingreliesheavilyonproformaaccountingstatements,particularlyincomestatementsComputingcashflowsrefresherOperatingCashFlow（OCF）=EBIT+depreciationtaxesOCF=Netincome+depreciationwhenthereisnointerestexpenseCashFlowFromAssets（CFFA）=OCFnetcapitalspending（NCS）changesinNWC61-79-7Table9.1ProFormaIncomeStatementSales（50,000unitsat$4.00/unit）$200,000VariableCosts（$2.50/unit）125,000Grossprofit$75,000Fixedcosts12,000Depreciation（$90,000/3）30,000EBIT$33,000Taxes（34%）11,220NetIncome$21,78071-89-8Table9.2ProjectedCapitalRequirementsYear0123NWC$20,000$20,000$20,000$20,000NetFixedAssets90,00060,00030,0000TotalInvestment$110,000$80,000$50,000$20,00081-99-9Table9.5ProjectedTotalCashFlowsYear0123OCF$51,780$51,780$51,780ChangeinNWC-$20,00020,000CapitalSpending-$90,000CFFA-$110,00$51,780$51,780$71,78091-109-10MakingTheDecisionNowthatwehavethecashflows,wecanapplythetechniquesthatwelearnedinchapter8EnterthecashflowsintothecalculatorandcomputeNPVandIRRCF0=-110,000;C01=51,780;F01=2;C02=71,780NPV;I=20;CPTNPV=10,648CPTIRR=25.8%Shouldweacceptorrejecttheproject?

101-119-11TheTaxShieldApproachYoucanalsofindoperatingcashflowsusingthetaxshieldapproachOCF=（Salescosts）（1T）+Depreciation*TThisformmaybeparticularlyusefulwhenthemajorincrementalcashflowsarethepurchaseofequipmentandtheassociateddepreciationtaxshieldsuchaswhenyouarechoosingbetweentwodifferentmachines111-129-12MoreonNWCWhydowehavetoconsiderchangesinNWCseparately?

GAAPrequiresthatsalesberecordedontheincomestatementwhenmade,notwhencashisreceivedGAAPalsorequiresthatwerecordcostofgoodssoldwhenthecorrespondingsalesaremade,whetherwehaveactuallypaidoursuppliersyetFinally,wehavetobuyinventorytosupportsalesalthoughwehaventcollectedcashyet121-139-13DepreciationThedepreciationexpenseusedforcapitalbudgetingshouldbethedepreciationschedulerequiredbytheIRSfortaxpurposesDepreciationitselfisanon-cashexpense;consequently,itisonlyrelevantbecauseitaffectstaxesDepreciationtaxshield=DTD=depreciationexpenseT=marginaltaxrate131-149-14ComputingDepreciationStraight-linedepreciationD=（Initialcostsalvage）/numberofyearsVeryfewassetsaredepreciatedstraight-linefortaxpurposesMACRSNeedtoknowwhichassetclassisappropriatefortaxpurposesMultiplypercentagegivenintablebytheinitialcostDepreciatetozeroMid-yearconvention141-159-15After-taxSalvageIfthesalvagevalueisdifferentfromthebookvalueoftheasset,thenthereisataxeffectBookvalue=initialcostaccumulateddepreciationAfter-taxsalvage=salvageT（salvagebookvalue）151-169-16Example:

DepreciationandAfter-taxSalvageYoupurchaseequipmentfor$100,000anditcosts$10,000tohaveitdeliveredandinstalled.Basedonpastinformation,youbelievethatyoucanselltheequipmentfor$17,000whenyouaredonewithitin6years.Thecompanysmarginaltaxrateis40%.Whatisthedepreciationexpenseeachyearandtheafter-taxsalvageinyear6foreachofthefollowingsituations?

161-179-17Example:

Straight-lineDepreciationSupposetheappropriatedepreciationscheduleisstraight-lineD=（110,00017,000）/6=15,500everyyearfor6yearsBVinyear6=110,0006（15,500）=17,000After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4（17,00017,000）=17,000171-189-18Example:

Three-yearMACRSYearMACRSpercentD1.3333.3333（110,000）=36,6632.4444.4444（110,000）=48,8843.1482.1482（110,000）=16,3024.0741.0741（110,000）=8,151BVinyear6=110,00036,66348,88416,3028,151=0After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4（17,0000）=$10,200181-199-19Example:

Seven-YearMACRSYearMACRSPercentD1.1429.1429（110,000）=15,7192.2449.2449（110,000）=26,9393.1749.1749（110,000）=19,2394.1249.1249（110,000）=13,7395.0893.0893（110,000）=9,8236.0893.0893（110,000）=9,823BVinyear6=110,00015,71926,93919,23913,7399,8239,823=14,718After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4（17,00014,718）=16,087.20191-209-20Example:

ReplacementProblemOriginalMachineInitialcost=100,000Annualdepreciation=9000Purchased5yearsagoBookValue=55,000Salvagetoday=65,000Salvagein5years=10,000NewMachineInitialcost=150,0005-yearlifeSalvagein5years=0Costsavings=50,000peryear3-yearMACRSdepreciationRequiredreturn=10%Taxrate=40%201-219-21ReplacementProblemComputingCashFlowsRememberthatweareinterestedinincrementalcashflowsIfwebuythenewmachine,thenwewillselltheoldmachineWhatarethecashflowconsequencesofsellingtheoldmachinetodayinsteadofin5years?

211-229-22ReplacementProblemProFormaIncomeStatementsYear12345CostSavings50,00050,00050,00050,00050,000Depr.New49,50067,50022,50010,5000Old9,0009,0009,0009,0009,000Increm.40,50058,50013,5001,500（9,000）EBIT9,500（8,500）36,50048,50059,000Taxes3,800（3,400）14,60019,40023,600NI5,700（5,100）21,90029,10035,400221-239-23ReplacementProblemIncrementalNetCapitalSpendingYear0Costofnewmachine=150,000（outflow）After-taxsalvageonoldmachine=65,000-.4（65,00055,000）=61,000（inflow）Incrementalnetcapitalspending=150,00061,000=89,000（outflow）Year5After-taxsalvageonoldmachine=10,000-.4（10,00010,000）=10,000（outflowbecausewenolongerreceivethis）231-249-24ReplacementProblemCashFlowFromAssetsYear012345OCF46,20053,40035,40030,60026,400NCS-89,000-10,000InNWC00CFFA-89,00046,20053,40035,40030,60016,400241-259-25ReplacementProblemAnalyzingtheCashFlowsNowthatwehavethecashflows,wecancomputetheNPVandIRREnterthecashflowsComputeNPV=54,812.10ComputeIRR=36.28%Shouldthecompanyreplacetheequipment?

251-269-26EvaluatingNPVEstimatesTheNPVestimatesarejustthatestimatesApositiveNPVisagoodstartnowweneedtotakeacloserlookForecastingriskhowsensitiveisourNPVtochangesinthecashflowestimates,themoresensitive,thegreatertheforecastingriskSourcesofvaluewhydoesthisprojectcreatevalue?

261-279-27ScenarioAnalysisWhathappenstotheNPVunderdifferentcashflowsscenarios?

Attheveryleastlookat:

BestcaserevenuesarehighandcostsarelowWorstcaserevenuesarelowandcostsarehighMeasureoftherangeofpossibleoutcomesBestcaseandworstcasearenotnecessarilyprobable;theycanstillbepossible271-289-28SensitivityAnalysisWhathappenstoNPVwhenwevaryonevariableatatimeThisisasubsetofscenarioanalysiswherewearelookingattheeffectofspecificvariablesonNPVThegreaterthevolatilityinNPVinrelationtoaspecificvariable,thelargertheforecastingriskassociatedwiththatvariableandthemoreattentionwewanttopaytoitsestimation281-299-29NewProjectExampleConsidertheprojectdiscussedinthetextTheinitialcostis$200,000andtheprojecthasa5-yearlife.Thereisnosalvage.Depreciationisstraight-line,therequiredreturnis12%andthetaxrateis34%ThebasecaseNPVis15,567291-309-30SummaryofScenarioAnalysisScenarioNetIncomeCashFlowNPVIRRBasecase19,80059,80015,56715.1%WorstCase-15,51024,490-111,719-14.4%BestCase59,73099,730159,50440.9%301-319-31SummaryofSensitivityAnalysisScenarioUnitSalesCashFlowNPVIRRBasecase600059,80015,56715.1%Worstcase550053,200-8,22610.3%Bestcase650066,40039,35719.7%311-329-32MakingADecisionBeware“ParalysisofAnalysis”Atsomepoint,youhavetomakeadecisionIfthemajorityofyourscenarioshavepositiveNPVs,thenyoucanfeelreasonablycomfortableaboutacceptingtheprojectIfyouhaveacrucialvariablethatleadstoanegativeNPVwithasmallchangeintheestimates,thenyoumaywanttoforgotheproject321-339-33ManagerialOptionsCapitalbudgetingprojectsoftenprovideotheroptionsthatwehavenotyetconsideredContingencyplanningOptiontoexpandOptiontoabandonOptiontowaitStrategicoptions331-349-34CapitalRationingCapitalrationingoccurswhenafirmordivisionhaslimitedresourcesSoftrationingthelimitedresourcesaretemporary,oftenself-imposedHardrationingcapitalwillneverbeavailableforthisprojectTheprofitabilityindexisausefultoolwhenfacedwithsoftrationing341-359-35QuickQuizHowdowedetermineifcashflowsarerelevanttothecapitalbudgetingdecision?

Whatisscenarioanalysisandwhyisitimportant?

Whatissensitivityanalysisandwhyisitimportant?

Whataresomeadditionalmanagerialoptio