exchange rate 全球汇率变动.docx

exchange rate 全球汇率变动.docx

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exchangerate全球汇率变动

content

Abstract1

1.Introductions2

2.Eurodollar2

2.1Dataafterglobalfinancialcrisis2

2.2Impactofexchangerate3

3.ChineseRenminbi4

3.1Thedataafterglobalfinancialcrisis4

3.2Thepossiblefuturetrend4

3.3Theimpactofexchangerate5

3.3.1AdvantageousInfluence5

3.3.2Disadvantageousinfluence5

4.AustraliandollarandJapaneseYen6

4.1Dataafterglobalfinancialcrisis6

4.2Impactofexchangerate7

5.Conclusion7

Reference8

Appendix9

Abstract

ZhaoYongzhangconcludedthatchangethebalanceoftrademayleadthechangeinexchangerate,buttherewasnoproofthatexchangeratecanleadthechangeofthebalanceoftrade.（ZhaoYongzhang.1996）afterfinancialcrisis,manyofcountrieshadachangeofexchangerate.Financialcrisiswillaffectcertaindemand.Consequently,itwillleadthevarietyoftrade.Capitalmarkettookaterriblebeatinfinancialcrisis.Manyofthewestcountriesusedflexibleexchangeratessothattheyeasytobeaffected.Afterfinancialcrisis,theexchangerateinJapan,Australia,Europe,ChinaandAmericabecomesteady.Butitalsohadeffectonmultinationaltrade.

1.Introductions

FinancialcrisislikeastormoriginatedfromWallStreettoalloftheworld.Subprimecrisiseruptedin2007,Andthen,itleadtheglobalfinancialcrisisin2008.Intheendof2009,theEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisiserupted.Therewasavariableinthebalanceoftrade,andleadtheexchangeratechange.Pricesarevariableaccordingtotherateofexchange.Itincludesimportspriceandexportsprice.Iftheexchangerateincreased,thecostofthegoodsproductwillincreaseanditscompetitivenessintheinternationalmarketwillbehurt.Therefore,theexchangerateissignificantformultinationaltrade.

Depreciatewouldpushtheexportandappreciatemayrestrainexport,sothatadjustedbalanceofinternationalpayments.Fluctuationincurrencyexchangeratelaggedineffectthebalanceofinternationalpayment.Namely,tradebalancecan’tchangeimmediatelyaftervarietyofexchangerate.Insteaditisvaryinthereversedirection.Afterthat,itcouldappeartherighteffect.（Paul.2008.p.432.）Economicsconsiderthatbusinessabhorrisk.However,exchangeratefluctuatewillrisetheriskofinternationaltradeandisanegativeinfluencetointernationaltrade.Itisthereasonthatauthorityandbusinessmanattachweightonexchangeratefluctuateandhopehadlessfluctuate.ItisalsothereasonwhydevelopmentcountriesadoptthefixedinternationalexchangeratesystemandEuropeancountriesestablishtheEuroarea.

2.Eurodollar

2.1Dataafterglobalfinancialcrisis

AffectedbyAmericanfinancialcrisis,EurodollarexchangeratetoUSdollardecreasedfrom1.3963dollarto1.2739dollardownby8.76percentinthefirstthreemonths.Even2009wasEurodollar’sbirthof10years.ButEuropeanCentralBankcutinterestrateby25basispoints,andexchangerateincreasedto1.3665dollarinApril.Andthen,itisinanupwardtrenduntilNovemberto1.5038dollar.

EuropeanSovereignDebtCrisiseruptedin2009December.ItisasourceofexchangerateofEurodollartoUSdollardecreasing.EuropeanSovereignDebtbeganwithGreeceSovereignDebtCrisis.Greecegovernmentproclaimedfinancialdeficitin2009shared12.7percentofthatofGDPthatisdoubleofestimate6.7percentinOctober.InternationalthreemajorratingagenciescutdownthecreditqualityofGreecesovereigndebt.ItmarkedthebeginningofEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisis.

Onthesecondphase,crisisspreadleadedtheexchangeratedecreasedfurther.EuropehadadivergenceofviewonwhetherhelptheGreeceandhowtodoafterGreeceSovereignDebtCrisis.From2010JanuarytoApril,Portugal,SpainwasintoEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisis,andthenEuroareasuchasGermany,FrancehadmoreandmorepressurefromEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisis.Inthisperiod,theEurodeclinedfrom1.4324dollarto1.3307dollaragainsttheUSdollar.Itisdownby7.64percent.InordertoprotecttheEuropeaneconomythememberstateoftheEECpledgedaid.TheEuropeanUnion,EuropeancentralbankandIMFfurnished45billionEurocredittoGreeceonApril4.However,GreekSecretaryoftheTreasuryexpressedtheyneedrefund9billionmoretobridgethemoverbeforeMay19.ItmeanttheEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisisbecomeworse.Itleadedawaveofsharpreductionfrom1.3307dollarto1.1925dollar.Itwasdownby11.59percent.Hereafter,Euroexchangeratewasintoawaveofsharpgrowth.Increasingfrom1.1926dollarto1.3276dollarandupby11.32percent.AfterJune,Euroincreasedto1.400dollarwiththedropofUSdollar.Accumulateupby17.40percent.ButIrelandSovereignDebtCrisisbecomesworseandworseinNovember.ItleadedtoEuroexchangeratedecreaseagainstUSdollaragain.（ZhangGuohong.2010.）butEurobeganrisesince2011.

2.2Impactofexchangerate

Objectively,EuropassivedepreciationstimulatedEuropeaneconomicdevelopment.Somecountriesdetectedthatcurrencydepreciationcanpromoteeconomicdevelopment.Sothatleadsthecompetitivecurrencydepreciationonalloftheworld.DespitetheEuropeanSovereignDebtCrisisovershadowedtheEuropeaneconomicdevelopment,buttheweakEurocreatedanadvantageforexport.SotheEuropeaneconomicrecoveryisbetterthanwhatwasexpected.Usethesamemethod,USincreasedtheexportandreducedtheimportviaappreciatetradepartner’scurrencyordepreciateowncurrencytoreduceatradedeficit.

3.ChineseRenminbi

3.1Thedataafterglobalfinancialcrisis

CNYexchangerateissteadyfrom2009to2010July.Buttherewasafluctuatefrom2009FebruarytoApril.CNYexchangerateincreasefromo.14624dollarto0.14929dollarinonemonth,butitreducedtoo.14634inthenestmonth.After2010July,CNYexchangeratewasinanupwardtrend.Itisrosefrom0.14646dollarto0.15281dollarbetween2010Julyto2011May.

Becauseoflowlaborcost,Chinahasthelowpricegoods.Ithadalargeadvantageininternationalcompetitivemarket,sothatcertaincountriespushpressureonCNYtoappreciateCNYexchangerate.Becauseofthepressure,CNYexchangerateappreciatesagainstUSdollarsince2010July.

3.2Thepossiblefuturetrend

　Onthefirstfivemonthsofthisyear,chinahastradesurplusof22.97billion,areduceof35.1percent.Andthetradesurpluswas13.05billioninMay.TradesurpluswasincreasefurtherinApril,butisbelowexpectations.Analystspointedoutthataccordingtothetradesurplusincreaseinthepastfivemonths,wecanseeChinesetradesurplusdecreasedoverall（DongXiao.2011.）.Chinesetradebalancewillimprovefurtheranditcaneasethepressureofappreciation..Ontheotherhand,ForasmuchtheChineseeconomywillcontinuetomaintainrapidgrowthandfacedtheinflationarypressures,itisclearthatthelong-termtrendsisappreciation.Butitdoesnothavethefoundationtoconsiderablyappreciationatpresent.TheRMBexchangeratebecomesamethodthatwesterncountiesusetolimitChineseeconomicdevelopment.（LiChong.2011.）

3.3Theimpactofexchangerate

3.3.1AdvantageousInfluence

Afterappreciation,Renminbipurchasingpowerincreasedininternational.intheinternationalenergyandrawmaterialpriceskeeprising,theRenminbiappreciatesundertheinternationalenergyandrawmaterialpriceskeeprisingcanlettheforeigngoodsinalowerpriceenterChinesemarket,therebylessenthecostofimportofenergyandrawmaterials

Appreciationisgoodforreducepressureofdebtservicing.AccordingtotheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangeannouncedthat,Chineseforeigndebtbalancewas386.772billiondollarsby2009,morethan12.111billiontotheendof2008,upby3.23percent.Astheobligor,theduepaymentsforexternaldebtprincipalandinterestofthelocalcurrencyamountwillbelessalongwiththeRMBappreciation.Sothatcanreducestateandenterprisedebtburden.

AppreciationalsocanReduceanti-dumpinglitigation.Chinahastheadvantageoflowlaborcostsintheinternationalmarket,whichmakesthe"madeinChina"productswelcomedextensivelybyglobalconsumers.Butthelowpriceoftheproductswillimpacttheimportingcountry.RMBappreciatemoderatelycanreduceeconomicandtradedisputes,tocreateandmaintainstabletradeenvironment.

3.3.2Disadvantageousinfluence

Appreciationcanreducetheexportingtrade.Therearecloselinkthelevelbetweenperformanceandexchangerate.Ifexportingcorporateraisepricesformaintainingacertainprofit,itwillweakenthecompetitiveofexportproductsintheinternationalmarket,anditisbadforexpansiontheexportandincreasingmarketshareoftheproductintheinternationalmarket.Especiallyafterthefinancialcrisis,ourcountryexportatrophy,andexportingenterpriseespeciallylabor-intensiveexportenterprisenarrowedprofitspace,Renminbiappreciationatthistimewillmakethesesmallenterprisesfacethesurvivalcrisis.

Appreciationcanreducetheforeigninvestment.Nowadays,Chinahadlargestamountoffundsinforeigncurrencyfromtradingactivitiesandinwardinvestmentintheworld.Foreign-fundedenterprisesplayedanimportantroleineveryfieldofourcountrytopromotetechnicalprogressandimprovethequalityofmanagementandincreasetheemploymentandexpandtheforeigntrade.（FangJieqiong,2010,p.92）

InordertoreducetheRMBexchangeratefluctuationsinexpanding,undertheconditionthatChinahasalargenumberoftradesurplusandimportandexporttradeflexibilityisnotverybig,RMBexchangerateinacertainrangeappreciationwillnotworsenbalanceofthetrade,andevenimprovedtradestructure.Renminbiappreciationh