ARSTAN说明书.doc

ARSTAN说明书.doc

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ProgramARSTAN

ATree-RingStandardizationProgramBasedonDetrendingandAutoregressiveTimeSeriesModeling,withInteractiveGraphics

Dr.EdwardR.Cook

And

PaulJ.Krusic

Tree-RingLaboratory

LamontDohertyEarthObservatory

ofColumbiaUniversity

Palisades,NY

Introduction

ProgramARSTANisthepersonalresearchprojectofDr.EdwardR.Cook,evolvingoutofhisgraduateworkattheUniversityofArizonainthe1980swhenthescienceofdendrochronologywasstrugglingwithextractingmeaningfultree-ringinformationfromclosedcanopyforesttrees.TheARSTANmethodology（AutoRegressiveSTANdardization）wasdevelopedtodealwithacertainclassofproblemthatiscommontotreesgrowinginclosed-canopyforestenvironments:

the“endogenousdisturbance”problem.

AdetaileddescriptionoftheARSTANmethodologyiscontainedinCook’sPhDDissertation“ATime-SeriesAnalysisApproachtoTree-RingStandardizationandwillnotberepeatedhere.Rather,acopyofthatdissertationisenclosedinthisfolderforthosewhowishtolearnmoreaboutit.

Whatyoudowiththeprogramisultimatelyuptoyou,butbeadvisedthatspecializedsoftwareisonlyasvaluabletotheuserastheuser’sunderstandingofwhatthesoftwaredoes.InanattempttomaketheprogrammoreuserfriendlyARSTANcanmakeaplotatalmosteverypointintheprogramwherethereisasignificanttransformationoftherawdata.Usethisfeaturetohelpyouseewhatisgoingonwithyourdataandhelpyouinterpretbettertheresults.

Disclaimer

Theauthorsassumenoresponsibilityfortheuseandsupportofthisprogram.Ofcoursewewouldwanttoknowaboutanysituationthatproducesanincorrectcomputationoranimpossibleresult.However,whatyoudowiththeprogramandhowyoudoit,isyourbusiness.

SystemRequirementsandInstallation

ProgramARSTANwasdevelopedentirelyonMacintoshcomputers.WhatthismeansisweknowmoreaboutthebehavioroftheprogramonMacsthanonanyothermachine.TheWindowsportoftheprogramisnewasofJanuary2005.Weareconstantlyusingtheprogramandupdateswillappearonourwebsitefromtimetotime.Ifyouareexperiencingproblemsgettingtheprogramtorunonyourcomputerandyouarerunningoneofthetwooperatingsystemsmentionedbelow,pleaseletusknow.Beadvisedtheprogramcantaxyourcomputersabilitiesresultinginwhatmayappearasacrash.Thisisnotunusualwhencalculatingbootstrappedconfidencelimitsonasitewith100’sofseriescoveringthesametimeinterval.Bepatientbeforereachingfortheresetbuttonorctrl_alt_deleting.Itisagoodideatoruntheprogramonmachineswithatleast300mbofavailableRAM.Forlargerdatasets,500mbormoreisnice.

MacintoshOSX

1.Itisadvisable,butnotnecessary,forallMacuserstoinstallthe“AppleDeveloperTools”toolboxforOSX10.1-10.2,oriToolsforOSX10.3andgreater.ThesemaybedownloadedforfreefromApples“developer”website.

2.Putthefolder“Absoft”inyourcomputersApplicationsfolder.

3.Copyormovetheapplication（executable）toanylocationonyourcomputerforuse.

4.Allinputfilesmustresideinthesamefolderastheapplication.

WindowsXPHome/Professional

1.Copythefolder“Absoft80”（withitscontents）toyourc:

drive.

2.Continuefromstep3above.

Note:

Thefollowingstepsmayormaynotbenecessarydependingontheoperatingsystemyouareusing.Trytheprogramfirstbeforecontinuing.

Rightclickon"MyComputer"andselectproperties.Locatethe"EnvironmentVariables"sectionofthepropertieswindow（inthe"Advanced"tabinWindows2000）andaddanewvariableforeitheryourusernameorsystemwide.Thevariablenamemustbecalled"PLPLOT_LIB"andthevaluemustbe:

C:

\Absoft80\examples\PLPLOT\examples

Windows98usersmayneedtoaddtheenvironmentvariabletoyourc:

\autoexec.batfilebytypingthefollowingline:

setPLPLOT_LIB=C:

\Absoft80\examples\PLPLOT\examples

Importantnoteaboutinputandoutputfiletypes

MacintoshUsers:

ThefiletypeofallARSTANinputandoutputfilesare“unix”.

WindowsUsers:

Thefiletypeis“dos”.

USERSGUIDE.

ProgramARSTANisaFORTRANprogramwithoutalotofamenitieslikedropanddragmousemovements,dropdownwindows,allthegreatstuffweexpectfromsoftwaretoday.It’satopdownprogram,meaningyousetituptodowhatyouwantfirst,thenyouletitrun.Therearethreeprinciplemodesforrunningtheprogram,interactive,commandandbatch.In“interactive”modeyouenterthenameofafilecontainingring-widthdata,youconfigurealltheoptionstoperformonthedatawithinthefile,hitreturnfor“nomoreoptions”andletitrun.

DuringaninteractivemoderunARSTANproducesalogfile,orcommandfile.Thistextfile（“_log”）recordsalltheoptionsandfilesusedinthelastrunoftheprogram.Thisfilemaybeusedasinputforanysubsequentrunsoftheprogram,thusrepeatingtheexactsameinstructionsthatwereusedwhenthelogfilewascreated.Thisiscalledcommandmode.Commandmodeisusefultoonedesiringtorepeatthesamechronologybuildingoptionsondifferentdatafiles.Simplychangingtheinputfilenameinthe_logfilewillrepeatapreviousoptionsetonanewdatafile

ARSTANcanalsoopenatextfilecontainingalistofring-widthfilenames（onename/line）thenperformalltheselecteddetrendingandchronologybuildingoptionsonthecontentsofeachfileinthelist.Thisiscalled“batch”modeandusefulforbuildingchronologynetworks.

Wewillnowdemonstratetheprogramininteractivemodetolearnthesoftwarebyusingatestdatafileandafewscreenshotstogetyougoing.

1.Loadingfile:

tst2.raw.（Anincrementfileindecadeformat）.

2.Setupoptionsetforthecurrentrunininteractivemode.

Herewehavechosentochangethefirstdetrendingmethod（option#4intheMainProgramMenu）fromitsdefault（negativeexponentialcurve1）toaHugershoffgrowthcurvefittingprocedure（option#7,intheFirstDetrendingSub-Menu）.Atthesametimewerequesttheprogramtoploteachindividualseriescurvefit.

3.Tocontinuecustomizingourrun,theprogramdisplaystheMainProgramOptionwindowagain.

Nowwehavechosentoviewvariouschronologysummaryplotsfirstbyselectingoption#19fromtheMainProgramMenu,thenoption#2fromtheSummaryPlotSub-Menu.

4.EachtimeoptionsarechangedthenewchangesaredisplayedintheMainProgramOptionsMenu.

Here,inthefinalset-upscreenshot,weseeallthechangeswehavemadetothedefaultsettings.Hittingreturnatthispointlaunchestheprogramandsavesthiscommandsettothelogfile“tst2.raw_log”.

HereisthefirstseriesplottedwithitsHugershoffcurvefit.

5.TheprogramwillnowpromptustoeitherSAVEtheplotjustcreated,CONTINUEwiththenextplot,STOPviewingmoredetrendingplots,orallowustocustomizetheplotwejustmade.

Wehavechosentochangethe（z）axismaximumvaluefrom3.5to4.0byselectingoption18fromthePlotOptionsMenu.Toseethechangewenowselectoptionzer[0]（orreplot）fromthesamemenu.

LoopingwithinthePlotOptionsMenuwecanchangeanumberofattributesofanyplottheprogrammakessavingourplotsineitherepsformat,usingtheprogramsPlotOptionsMenu“save”selection.MacuserscansaveplotsinjpegformatusingtheARSTANprogramcommandBar-PlPlot-Save.Thereisalsoachoiceheretocopytheplottothecomputersclipboardthenpastedirectlyintoadocument,aswasdonewhenwritingthisMSworddocument.

6.Afteralltheindividualseriesdetrendingisdonetheprogram,aswehaveconfiguredthisrun,displaysvarioussummaryplotsbeforecompleting.

7.Finally,afterchoosingnottodisplaymoresummaryplotstheprogramterminatesnormallywithasalutationfromagreatVenetianpoet,（Venice,CAthatis）.

Acknowledgments

ThisversionofprogramARSTANrepresentsanevolutionspanningnearlythreedecadesofdevelopment.Thenumberofpeopleandorganizationswhocontributedtothiseffortaremany.Somehavecontributedideas,othersactualcode.OnesignificantcontributorwasRichardHolmeswhoworkedbrieflyatLamontinthe1980’sandpassedawayin2003.Richard’scontributionofthemanysubroutinestoreadandwritedata,organizefiles,andperformbasiccurvefittingproceduresissincerelyappreciated.

WesincerelyacknowledgethemanycontributionsbyKenPeterswhoprovidedinvaluablecodeforoptimizingthecubicspliningroutinesandcalculatingtheirconfidencelimits.KenhasspentyearsworkingoutthemechanicsbehindmanyofARSTAN’smathematicalgymnasticsinordertobetterservetreeringanalysis.Thoughhestillclaimshedoesn’tunderstandwhatdendrochronologistsdowithhisinventions,andsomepublishersprobablywishedtheyneverprintedcertaintextbooksontimeseriesstatistics,thetree-ringcommunityisbetteroffnowfromhisefforts.

WemustalsoacknowledgethevalueofinstitutionslikeIMSL,SourceForge,GNUandtheworldwidecommunityofFORTRANprogrammers.Manyofthe18,441linesofcodeinARSTANareeithervariantsordirectinclusionsofpublicaccesscode.TheFORTRANprogramminglanguageremainsthelanguageofcomputationalscience.Withoutthisresource,programslikeARSTANwouldnotbefree.Inusingthissoftwareyouaredirectlybenefitingfromthespiritofintellectualsharingandopensourceprogramming,aphilosophyweconsiderparamounttotheadvancementofallscience.

Finally,wethankAbsoftforprovidingadecentFO