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商务英语论文
AboutInfluences0nourimportandexporttradeandCountermeasuresofLong-termAppreciationofRMB
中文摘要:
自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度;与此同时,人民币汇率调整为1美元=8.11元,升值2%。
由此,人民币在经历亚洲金融危机以来的稳定和实际升值以后,终于拉开了正式升值的序幕。
根据各方面的分析,到2020年以前,人民币将处于长期升值的趋势之中。
众所周知,汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响,因为汇率反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格,所以汇率的改变将直接传导给进出口商品和服务的价格,从而影响到进出口数量。
本文研究的范围是人民币升值给进出口贸易带来的影响,重点研究2007年以来人民币加速升值对进出口贸易带来的影响,包括正面影响、负面影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。
本研究基于权威部门的统计数据,利用国际贸易相关理论,采用实证和分析相结合的方法,试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速升值对我国进出口贸易的影响,以及面对人民币升值应该的一些措施。
Abstract
SinceJuly21,2005,Chinabegantoimplementamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystembasedonmarketsupplyanddemand,withreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.Atthesametime,RMBexchangerateadjuststo$1=8.11RMBwithanappreciationby2%.Thus,aftertheAsianfinancialcrisisintheexperienceofthestabilityandarealappreciation,RMBfinallystartsthepreludeofappreciation.Accordingtotheanalysis,by2020,theRMBwillbelongbeforetheupwardtrend.Asisknown,rateofexchangehasgreatinfluenceonimportandexporttrade,becausetheexchangerateisakindofcurrencyreflectstherelativetoanothercurrencyexchange.Sothechangeofexchangeratewilldirectlyaffectimportandexportpricesofgoodsandservices,thusaffectingimportandexportquantity.ThisresearchisabouttheinfluenceofRMBappreciationforimportandexporttrade,includingtheimpactofpositiveeffectsandnegativeeffects,import,export,importandexportcommoditystructureandwaysoftrade,etc.Thisresearchisbasedontheauthorityofthestatisticsdepartment,usingthetheoryofinternationaltrade,empiricalandanalysisusingthemethodofcombining,attemptstocomprehensivelyanalyzetheappreciationofRMBappreciationonChinainparticular,toacceleratetheimportandexporttrade,andsomeofthemeasuresshouldbetakentohandleRMBappreciation.
INTRODUCTION
Indifferentperiodofeconomicdevelopment,China'sRMBexchangeratemechanismadopteddifferent.InJuly2005,China'sRMBexchangerateformationmechanismwasreformedwithareferencetobasketofcurrenciesofmediationtoimplementamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystem.Sincethen,RMBwentintoalong-termslowappreciationtrack.Especiallysince2007,theRMBappreciationhasacceleratedthepaceofrecordhighs.ToDecember24,2007,theRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarbreakthrough7.3315:
1andhasappreciated6.09%.AndChina'simportandexporttradehasalsoexperiencedatortuoushistory.Sincethereformandopeninguppolicy,China'simportandexportwentintothetrackofhealthydevelopment,especiallyinrecentyears,China'sforeigntradevolume,qualityandstructurehaveachieveddegreesofimprovement.In2002,Chinabecametheworld'sfifthlargesttradingnation.In2004Chinamadeit6yearsearliertoimplementalongtermgoaltogaina10000billonforeigntrade,andfinallythetotalnumberwas1.15477trillionU.S.dollars.China’sforeigntradesharesof12%oftheworldastheworld'sthirdlargesttradingpower,behindtheUnitedStatesandGermany.Sincethen,China'simportandexporttradecontinuestoleadadouble-digitgrowth.In2006,China'sforeigntradevolumereached1.7604trillionU.Sdollars,in2007breakingtwotrillionU.Sdollars,thetotalforeigntradereached2.167trillionU.S.dollars.HowmuchimpactonChina'simportandexporttradedoesRMBappreciationhave?
Whatarethepositiveeffectsandnegativeeffects?
WhatkindofinfluencedoesRMBappreciationhaveonChina'simportandexportquantity,quality,amount,structureandwaysoftrade?
ThisarticlewillfocusinJanuary2007sincetherevaluation,forexample,fromtheperspectiveofempiricalandstatisticaltomakeananalysisofRMBappreciationonChina'simportandexporttrade.
Asisknown,rateofexchangehasgreatinfluenceonimportandexporttrade,becausetheexchangerateisakindofcurrencyreflectstherelativetoanothercurrencyexchange.Sothechangeofexchangeratewilldirectlyaffectimportandexportpricesofgoodsandservices,thusaffectingimportandexportquantity.RMBappreciationonChina'simportandexporttradecanbedividedintopositiveandnegativeeffectsofboth.
ⅠRMBappreciation’spositiveimpactontheimportandexporttrade
1.1TosomeextenttoimprovethetradeenvironmentinChina
Foralongtime,Chinaimplementsmercantilesystem,thatistobringdownproductioncosts,expandproductintheinternationalmarketshareandexportstoearnmoreforeignexchange.Undertheguidanceofthislineofthought,China'stradesurplusgrows,foreignexchangereserveshaverisensteadily,andonlyyearsofeffortChinabecametheworld'sfirst,anditsamountislargerandlargerthanthesecondone.Tosomeextent,surplusandforeignexchangereservesindicatesthatnationalprosperityandtheimprovementofChina'sinternationalstatus.However,fromanotherperspective,alongtimehightradesurplusandforeignexchangereserves,meansChina'sforeigntradeenvironmentcaneasilydeteriorateandbecometheobjectofattackcountries,andevenbecomeascapegoatforeconomicproblemsabroadandatoolforforeignpoliticalforce.ValueoftheRMBisundervaluedisthegeneralviewoftheinternationalcommunity.AndifRMBappreciates,China'sexportgrowthwillslowdownsomeandtheimportgrowthwillbeaccelerated,whichcanbenefitthebalanceofexternalandwithineconomyandreleasetherubbetweentradingpartners,atthesametime,itwillnotleadtoagreaternegativeimpactonnationaleconomicgrowth.RMBappreciationcaneasethepressureofthetradebalanceandreducetheriskofmacroeconomicpossible.AppreciationoftheRMBisconducivetoloweringtheexcessofdomesticexportsoflow-efficiencyproducts,thereleaseoftheexpectedappreciation,slowinggrowthrateofforeignexchangereserves,reducingmacroeconomicpotentialinflationary,excessliquidityandtheriskofU.S.dollarassets.
1.2Enhancethetradecompetitivenessofenterprisesandpromotetradegrowthmode
Afterrevaluation,thedollarpriceofexportsincreased,foreignconsumerstobuyproductsfromChinahavetopayahighercost.ThecompetitiveadvantageofcheapChineseproductswillgraduallydisappearandtheprofitmarginsofexporterswillbereducedandinstead,companieswillseeknewcompetitiveadvantagesandcreatenewcorecompetencies.Inthiscase,thosecorporationswithlow-techandlowaddedvalue,poormanagement,highcostandlowefficiencyofenterprisesandproductswillbepushedoutofoverseasmarkets,andcompetitiveenterpriseswillactivelyimprovetheoperationandmanagement,inpursuitoftechnology,brandandmarketingstrategytowin,relyingonscienceandtechnology,branddesignandproductqualityforcompetitiveadvantage.Meanwhile,theRMBappreciationwouldreducethecostofimportsofadvancedequipment,costoffundstopurchaseofadvancedequipmentcontinuestolower,soourabilitytobuymoreadvancedequipmentincreasedandthatequipmentcanhelptopromoteChina'sexportmanufacturingsectorandexportoftechnicalprogressinupgradingofthestructure.RMBappreciationhasreducedthecostofChineseEnterprisesOverseasInvestment,whichisbeneficialforenterprisesgoingabroadtodoindustrytransferandtechnologylearning,andenlargetheproportionoftrade,meanwhile,helplessdevelopedareasoftheprocessingtradeandspurdomesticindustrialstructureandthestructureofexporttradetoupgrade.
RMBappreciationreducedthecostofChineseenterprisesinoverseasinvestment,whichwillhelpenterprisestogoabroadtocarryoutindustrialtransferandtechnologicallearning,andexpandtheproportionofgeneraltrade,driveninlessdevelopedareasofprocessingtrade,promotedomesticindustrialstructureandexporttrade,upgradingofthestructure.China'sprocessingtradeisfacingindustrialupgradingandregionaltransferofdualtask.Intheeasterncoastalareas,especiallythePearlRiverDeltaandYangtzeRiverDeltaregion,theprocessingtradeisverywelldeveloped,Inmanyareasalmosttothesaturation-freedevelopment,throughindustrialandtechnologicalupgrading,improvingthegradesandvalue-addedprocessingtraderate;ButinMidwestthedevelopmentofprocessingtradewererelativelystagnant,needtoexpandtradescale,promotelocaleconomicdevelopment.ModerateappreciationofRMB,totalprocessingtradewillbeechoedandpromotetheupgradingandregionalmetastasis.
1.3controlLow-endexportsandcurbviciouscompetition,andpromotethesustainabledevelopmentofChina'simportandexporttrade
Suchproblemslikehighcostinenergyandresource,highpollution,lowaddedvalue,deterioratingtermsoftradeexistinChina'sforeigntradegrowthinexportsandforeigninvestment.Atthesametime,resourcesandelementsconcentrateexcessivelytoexportindustriesandnationaleconomicgrowthistoodependentonexternaldemand.Anddomesticdemand,especiallyconsumptiongrowthisrelativelyslow.TheseproblemsexistinlargepartduetotheelementsofproductionforexportinChina,includingenergy,resources,laborandpublicinputprices,costofpollution,areunderestimated.
IfRMBappreciates,thoseproductswithlowvalue-addedprice-sensitivecommodities(especiallyintextilesled)andtheSMEswiththinprofitwillsufferthegreatestdamage.Therefore,throughtheadjustmentofRMBexchangeratereformcanhelptoadjusttheenterpriseexports(especiallytextilesexportorder),changethecurrentsituationofviciouspricecompetition,toacertainextent,theallocationofresourceswillachievesurvivalofthefittest.
ModerateappreciationofRMBequivalenttoenhancetheexport-relatedfactorprices,