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WhatWillWeDoForWork
Ibelievethat90%ofwhite-collarjobsintheU.S.willbeeitherdestroyedoralteredbeyondrecognitioninthenext10to15years.That'
sacatastrophicprediction,giventhat90%ofusareengagedinwhite-collarworkofonesortoranother.Evenmostmanufacturingjobsthesedaysareconnectedtosuchwhite-collarservicesasfinance,humanresourcesandengineering.
ItalkedtoanoldLondonloadersometimeback.Heallowedthatin1970ittook108guysaboutfivedaystounloadatimbership.Thencamecontainerization.Thecomparabletasktodaytakeseightfolksoneday.Thatis,a98.5%reductioninman-days,from540totaltojusteight.
Thistimetheproductivityaimstoreconstruct——makethatdeconstruct——thewhite-collarworld.Infact,Iseeafive-sidedmovementthatwillbringtomyapparentlyfantastic“90%in10years”prediction.
FIRSTThedestructivenatureofthecurrentflavorofcompetition,dotcomcompany.
Sure,mostwillfail.Butthesurvivorswillexertenormouspressure—fast!
—ontheBigGuys.WhenanAmazonoraCharlesSchwabmovesintoyourneighborhood,you'
vegotmomentstoreact.OrtakekingentrepreneurJimClarkofNetscapefame.Hislatestventure,Healtheon/WebMD,intendstosqueezehundredsofbillionsofdollarsofwasteoutofthehealth-caresystem.Thesenewfirmsaimtocreatenothinglessthanhavocinthetheatersinwhichtheyoperate.
SECONDEnterprisesoftware.
It'
sanameforthetoolsthatwillhookupeveryaspectofabusiness'
sinnardsinternalorgans——personnel,production,sales,accounting——andthenhookupallthathooked-upstufftotherestofthe“family”ofsuppliersandthesuppliers'
suppliersandwholesalersandretailersandendusers.
Theyareyournightmare,these“white-collarrobots.”ThecomplexproductsfromGermansoftwaregiantSAPwilldotoyourcompany'
sinternalorgansexactlywhatrobotsandcontainerizationdidtotheblue-collarworldin1960.Installingthesetoolsisnoteasy.Thetechnicalpartisdistressing;
thepoliticsaredreadful.Whentheblue-collarrobotsarrived,theunionsrevoltedagainstit.Thistimeit'
smanagementofficialwhoareopposingtechnologicalchange.Why?
Thesetoolsthreatentheircomfortablestatus,carefullycraftedoverseveralgenerations.
Buttherobotsdidcome.Andtheytriumphed.
THIRDOutsourcing
M.I.T.'
sNo.1computerprofessor,MichaelDertouzos,saidIndiacouldeasilyboostitsGDPbyatrilliondollarsinthenextfewyearsperformingsecretwhite-collartasksforWesterncompanies.Heguessedthat50millionjobsfromthewhite-collarWestcouldgosouthtoIndia,whosepopulationhit1billionlastweek.Theaverageannualsalaryforeachofthose50millionnewIndianworkers:
$20,000.
FOURTHTheWeb.
Ford,GMandDaimlerChryslerannounceararecombination.Theywilllinkalltheirtensofthousandsofsuppliersintoasingle,Internet-basednetwork.Thisentitywillinclude$250billionannuallyofsuppliers'
products(andperhapsanadditional$500billionofthosesuppliers'
suppliers'
products).Inshort,everypennyofwastewillbecompressedfromthehugeprocurementsystem.Theordercyclewillspeedupdramatically.Medibuyaimsforthesamehattrickinmedicalsupplies,DigitalThinkintraining,CarStationintheauto-body-shopworld.Thisisthewhite-hotworldofB2B(businesstobusiness)electroniccommerce,whichwillsoonencompasstrillionsofdollarsintransactions.
FIFTHTimecompression.
Ittook37yearsfortheradiotogetto50millionhomes.TheWebgotthereinfour.Hencemybeliefthatwhileittookaboutacenturytorevolutionizeblue-collarjobpractices,thisbravenewwhite-collarsocialsystemwillbemostlyinstalledinatenthofthattime——10years.
Eachofthesefiveforcesisfact,notimage.Eachinfluencestheothersmultiplicatively.ThereforeIamunwillingtowithdrawmypredictionsaboutthepowerofthewhite-collarstormbearingdownonus.Upsettingmadnessisinprocess.Theseforcesareliberating.Blue-collarrobotsworkoutoffactoryandwarehouse.Thesamewillhappentowhite-collarwork.Mydaddiditfor41yearsatthe BaltimoreGas&
ElectricCo.Hewas,sadtosay,awhite-collarindenturedservant(契约佣工).
Theworldisgoingthroughmorefundamentalchangethanithasinhundreds,perhapsthousandsofyears.TheheadeconomistSandiaNationalLaboratories,ArnoldBaker,saidit'
sthe“biggestchangesincethecavemenbeganbartering.”Doyouwanttobeplayer,afull-scaleparticipantwhoembraceschange?
Hereistheopportunitytoparticipateinthelovely,messyplaygroundcalled“Let'
sreinventtheworld.”
Here'
sanewrolemodelIcallIconWoman:
Sheisturnedonbyherwork!
Theworkiscool!
Sheisanadventurer!
SheistheCEOofherlife!
MyIconWoman,ofcourse,embracesandexploitstheWeb.
ShesubmitsherresumeontheWebandkeepsitperpetuallyactivethere.
SheisrecruitedandnegotiatesandishiredontheWeb.
SheistrainedontheWeb.
ShecreatesandconductsbrilliantprojectsontheWebviaafar-flung“virtual”stableofteammates(mostofwhomshe'
snevermet).
ShemanageshercareerontheWeb.Andshehasapersonalwebsite!
Inapproximately2010,shewillbeathome,working——forthenextseveralmonths——forFordonacrueldifficultengineeringproblem.Her79-memberprojectteam,onlyoneofwhomshe'
smetface-to-face(sheconsidersface-to-faceasaquaintidea),comesfrom14nations.Herfullywiredhomeishercastle.
Youmaybedisprove.Isthis“bewildandcrazyandWebbyandCEOofyourownlife”picture—anythingotherthanNewAge/neweconomy?
Ithinkitisrelevantandrealratherthanwildandcrazy——onatleasttwoimportantscores.
Oneisthatthoughmy“house”isinVermont,I'
vehungmyprofessionallicenseinPaloAltosince1981.Allisbreakingloose“outthere/here.”Thesefolksmaysoundweird,buttheymayalsoberedefiningtheworld.
Twoisbacktothefuture!
Iconstantlyremindmymiddle-agedseminarparticipantsthatthequintessentialAmericansarechanging……Whoare?
BenFranklin(thefatherofself-helpliterature).RalphWaldoEmerson(self-reliancewashistrait).WaltWhitman,motivationalleaderTonyRobbins,andBentonville,Arkansas'
SamWalton……andBillGates.
WHATIF?
Maybethewildnew-economyAmericaistheoldAmerica.Truertoourselves.Wecameheretobreakfree,tomakeourrecordsinourawkwardways.
LikeGrandpa,Iamfacingextinction,onlybythisnewsetofpowerfulforces.Imakemostofmylivinggivingliveseminarsandtrainingprogramsandasamanagementconsultant.It'
sallgravitatingtotheWeb——gravitating.It'
smovingatthespeedoflight.Iamscramblingtoreinventmyself,tonotjust“cope”buttoexploitthenewcommunicationandconnectionmedia.
注意:
此部分试题请在答题卡1上作答。
1.InU.S.,the90%ofthejobsarewhite-collarjobsasfinance,humanresourceandengineering.
2.Containerizationmakesa98.5%reductioninman-daysonunloadingtheship.
3.AmazonwantstodeveloptheHealtheon/webMDtosavehundredsofbillionsofdollars.
4.Themanagementofficialwon'
twelcometheblue-collarrobotsthattheunionsrevoltagainst.
5.TheprofessorMichaelDertouzosguessedthatIndiacouldincreaseGDPbyatrilliondollarsintheflowingfewyearsbywayof_____________.
6.ThecombinationofFord,GMandDaimlerChrysleraimstocompresswastefrom_____________.
7.Accordingtotheauthor,itwilltakeabout__________toreconstructnewwhite-collarworld.
8.TheheadeconomistArnoldBakerbelievedthattheworldisgoingthroughthemostfundamentalchangesince__________.
9.ThenewrolemodelIconWomandealswitheverythingaboutworkon_____________.
10.Theauthorischanginghimselftotakefulladvantageof_________________.
PartIIReadingComprehension
SectionA
Inthissection,thereisashortpassagewith5questionsorincompletestatements.
Readthepassagecarefully.Thenanswerthequestionsorcompletethestatementsinthefewestpossiblewords.PleasewriteyouranswersonAnswerSheet2.
Questions47to51arebasedonthefollowingpassage.
Chinaisinthemidstofoneofthemostremarkableexpansionsofhighereducationeverattempted.AndalthoughYunYing,aprofessorofphysicseducationatSoutheastUniversityinNanjing,maybeonlyabitplayer,she'
spassionateaboutreformingscienceeducation.
Yunisleadingherownminirevolution.Herintroductoryphysicscourseaddressesanationalpriority,namely,tofostereconomicgrowthbyproducingnotjustmore,butmorecreative,scientistsandengineers.
Thosetwoprinciplesunderlieher“BilingualPhysicsWithMultimedia”textandCD-ROM,afreshmancourseshehasbeendevelopingsincethemid-1980sthathasbeenadoptedby10Chineseuniversities.Thecoursenotonlyteaches