科技文Word格式.docx

科技文Word格式.docx

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Wearealltaughtwhatisknown,butwerarelylearnaboutwhatisnotknown,andwealmostneverlearnabouttheunknowable.Thatbiascanleadtomisconceptionsabouttheworldaroundus.

Theknownispressedonusfromthefirst.Inschoolwestarteachcourseatthebeginningofalongbookfullofthingsthatareknownbutthatwedonotyetknow.Weunderstandthatbeyondthatbookliesanotherbookandthatbeyondthatcourseliesanothercourse.Thefrontierofknowledge,whereitfinallybordersontheunknown,seemsfarawayandirrelevant,separatedfromusbyanapparentlyendlessexpanseoftheknown.Wedonnotseethatwemaybeproceedingdownanarrowpathofknowledgeandthatifwelookslightlyleftorrightwewillbestaringdirectlyattheunknown.

Evenwhenwearerightontheedgeoftheunknown,wemaynotbeawareofit.ThoseofuswholearnedthehistoryofthePersianWarsinschooldidnotknowthattheeventssovividlydescribedareallbasedonthewritingsoftheonesourcewhosurvived—Herodotus.IfyouwanttoknowalmostanythingthathappenedintheGreeceofthattimeanditwasnotrecordedbyHerodotus,itisunknownandinallprobabilitycanneverbeknown.Butwedidnotthinkofhisaccountsasfragmentsofknowledgeontheedgeoftheunknown;

itwasjustmorestufffromthehugepileoffactswehadtolearnaboutthehistoryofGreece.

Becauseofsuchlessons,wegrowupthinkingmoreisknownthanactuallyis.Ifwehadabetterdescriptionofthelimitsofpresentknowledge,thatdescriptioncouldbeapartofwhatwearetaught.Suchinsightwouldgiveusabetterperspectiveonwhatisknownandwhatiscurrentlyunknown.

Intime,manythingsnowunknownwillbecomeknown.Wewilllearnmoreaboutwhatliesbelowthesurfaceoftheearth,andwemaylearnhowneuronsinteracttoletusperceiveandthink.Theaccumulatingpileofdatacanbemisleading,however.Beyondthecurrentlyunknownarethethingsthatareinherentlyunknowable.

Fewunknowableareconsciouslyrecognizedassuch.Theoutcomeofaspinningroulettewheelandthelocalweatherthreemonthsfromnowbelongtothatsmallclass.Everyday,however,webumpintophenomenathatmaywellbeunknowablebutthatwedonotrecognizeassuch.Someoftheseunknowableformthebasesofrespectedprofessions.Brokersmakealivinganticipatingthefluctuationsofstockprices.Presidentsrunforofficebasedonclaimsofwhattheywilldoforavastandpoorlyunderstoodeconomycomposedofmanyunpredictablyinteractingsectors.Wedonotevenknowifwearedealingherewiththepartlyknown,themainlyunknownortheunknowable.

Nevertheless,weunconsciouslyrecognizethattheunknowablesurroundsus.Nobodythinksaboutorpretendstoknowwhowillrunforpresident20yearsfromnow.nowdopeopletrytopredicttheautomobileaccidentstheywillbeinvolvedin.toknowthatwewillbestruckbyacarnextyear,wewouldhavetoknow,withimpossibleaccuracy,theparticularsofthelifeofthedriver,hishabits,histiming,hiswayofpressingtheacceleratorandsoforth—allthefactsthatareneededtobringhimwithperfectprecisiontothatunpleasantencounter.Itisclearthatallthesedetailsareunknown,andwedonottryveryhardtolearnaboutthembecauseweinstinctivelyrealizetheyarealsounknowable.

Indistinguishingtheknownortheunknownfromtheunknowable,thelevelofdetailcanbedecisive.Thelevelofdetailiswhatseparatesthedelusionofthegamblerfromthewealthofthecasinoowner.Thegamblerattemptstopredicttheindividualandunpredictablespinsoftheroulettewheel;

theownerconcernshimselfwiththequitepredictableaverageoutcome.

Thepredictionprocessisaidedbythefactthattheartificialisgenerallysimplerthanthenatural.Therollofabowlingballdownanalley,forinstance,iseasiertopredictthanthemotionofanirregularstonetumblingdownaroughhillside.Itislikelythattheartificialwillincreasinglysaveusfromtheunpredictable.Itmaybeeasiertomovegraduallytowardacompletelyenclosedearthwhoseclimatecouldbeartificiallycontrolledthantolearntopredictthenaturalweather.

Itisincreatingtheartificialandcontrollablethatscienceexcels.Scienceandengineeringhavemadeitpossibletoconstructthepartiallyartificialsurroundingsweliveintoday,repletewithhugebridgestrucks,airplanes,antibioticsandgeneticallyalteredspecies.Wearelikelytobuildanincreasinglyartificial,andhenceincreasinglyknowable,world.

Twolimitationsmayconstrainthemarchofpredictability.First,astheartifactsofscienceandengineeringgroweverlargerandmorecomplex,theymaythemselvesbecomeunpredictable.Largepiecesofsoftware,astheyareexpandedandamended,candevelopadegreeofcomplexityreminiscentofnaturalobjects,andtheycananddobehaveindisturbingandunpredictableways.Andsecond,embeddedwithinourincreasinglyartificialworldwillbelargenumbersofcomplexandthoroughlyidiosyncratichumans.

01-B.TheWest'

sdebttoChina

Oneofthegreatestuntoldsecretsofhistoryisthatthe‘modernworld’inwhichweliveisauniquesynthesisofChineseandWesterningredients.Possiblymorethanhalfofthebasicinventionsanddiscoveriesuponwhichthe‘modernworld’restscomefromchina.Andyetfewpeopleknowthis.Why?

TheChinesethemselvesareasignorantofthisfactasWesterners.Fromtheseventeenthcenturyonwards,theChinesebecameincreasinglydazzledbyEuropeantechnologicalexpertise,havingexperiencedaperiodofamnesiaregardingtheirownachievements.WhentheChinesewereshownamechanicalclockbyJesuitmissionaries,theywereawestruck.Theyhadforgottenthatitwastheywhohadinventedmechanicalclocksinthefirstplace!

ItisjustasmuchasurprisefortheChineseasforWesternerstorealizethatmodernagriculture,modernshipping,themodernoilindustry,modernastronomicalobservatories,modernmusic,decimalmathematics,papermoney,umbrellas,fishingreels,wheelbarrowsmulti-staterockets,guns,underwatermines,poisongasparachutes,hot-airballoons,mannedflight,brandy,whiskythegameofchess,printing,andeventheessentialdesignofthesteamengine,allcamefromChina.

Withouttheimportationfromchinaofnauticalandnavigationalimprovementssuchasships’rudders,thecompassandmultiplemasts,thegreatEuropeanVoyagesofDiscoverycouldneverhavebeenundertaken.ColumbuswouldnothavesailedtoAmerica,andEuropeanswouldneverhaveestablishedcolonialempires.

Withouttheimportationfromchinaofthestirrup,toenablethemtostayonhorseback,knightsofoldwouldneverhaveriddenintheirshiningarmortoaiddamselsindistress;

therewouldhavebeennoAgeofChivalry.Andwithouttheimportationfromchinaofgunsandgunpowder,theknightswouldnothavebeenknockedfromtheirhorsesbybulletswhichpiercedthearmor,bringingtheAgeofChivalrytoanend.

Withouttheimportationfromchinaofpaperandprinting,Europewouldhavecontinuedformuchlongertocopybooksbyhand.Literacywouldnothavebecomesowidespread.

JohannGutenbergdidnotinventmovabletype.Itwasinventedinchina.WilliamGarveydidnotdiscoverthecirculationofthebloodinthebody.Itwasdiscovered—orrather,alwaysassumed—inchina.IsaacNewtonwasnotthefirsttodiscoverhisFirstLawofMotion.Itwasdiscoveredinchina.

ThesemythsandmanyothersareshatteredbyourdiscoveryofthetrueChineseoriginsofmanyofthethings,allaroundus,whichwetakeforgranted.Someofourgreatestachievementsturnouttohavebeennotachievementsatall,butsimpleborrowings.Yetthereisnoreasonforustofeelinferiorordowncastattherealizationthatmuchofthegeniusofmankind’sadvancewasChineseratherthanEuropean.ForitisexcitingtorealizethattheEastandtheWestarenotasfarapartinapiritorinfactasmostofushavebeenled,byappearances,tobelieve,andthattheEastandtheWestarealreadycombinedinasynthesissopowerfulandsoprofoundthatitisall—pervading.Withinthissynthesisweliveourdailylives,andfromitthereisnoescape.ThemodernworldisacombinationofEasternandWesterningredientswhichareinextricablefused.Thefactthatwearelargelyunawareofitisperhapsoneofthegreatestcasesofhistoricalblindnessintheexistenceofthehumanrace.

Whyareweignorantofthisgigantic,obvioustruth?

ThemainreasonissurelythattheChinesethemselveslostsightofit.iftheveryoriginatorsoftheinventionsanddiscoveriesnolongerclaimthem,andifeventheirmemoryofthemhasfaded,whyshouldtheirinheritorstroubletoresurrecttheirlostclaims?

Untilourowntime,itisquestionablewhethermanyWesternersevenwantedtoknowthetruth.Itisalwaysmoresatisfyingtotheegotothinkthatwehavereachedourpresentpositionaloneandunaided,thatwearetheproudmastersofallabilitiesandallcrafts.

ThediscoveryofthetruthisaresultofincidentsinthelifeofthedistinguishedscholarDrJosephNeedham,authorofthegreatworkScienceandCivilizationinChina.In1937,aged37,NeedhamwasoneoftheyoungestFellowsoftheRoyalSocietyandabiochemistofconsiderabledistinctionatCambridge.Hehadalreadypublishedmanybooks,includingthedefinitivehistoryofembryology.OnedayhemetandbefriendedsomeChinesestudents,inparticularayoungwomanfromNankingnamedLuGwei—djen,whosefatherhadpassedontoherhisunusuallyprofoundknowledgeofthehistoryofChinesescience.NeedhambegantoheartalesofhowtheChinesehadbeenthetruediscoverersofthisandthatimportantthing,andatfirsthecouldn