美赛b题.docx

美赛b题.docx

《美赛b题.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美赛b题.docx（24页珍藏版）》请在冰点文库上搜索。

美赛b题

Water,Water,Everywhere

Summary

Waterisextremelyimportantsubsistence,whilecloselyrelatedtothepolitical,economicandculturaldevelopment,Beijingisoneoftheworld'smetropolisseverewatershortage.TakingBeijingasanexample,forwaterscarcityfactor,themathematicalmodelbyfindingauthoritativedatarevealstherelationshipbetweenwaterscarcityandrelatedfactors,andtheuseofwatershortageriskassessmentmodelforeffectiveregulationofwatershortages.

Firstly,thecompositionofwaterresourcesderivedfactors.Themaindiscussionfromthetotalwaterresources（watersupply）andtotalwaterconsumption（waterdemand）intwoways.Factorsaffectingthetotalwaterresourcesofsurfacewaterfromthestart,groundwaterandwastewatertreatmentcapacity.Factorsthataffectthetotalamountofwaterfromagriculturalwater,industrialwater,industrialanddomesticwatertostartthethirdspecificanalysis.

Secondly,RichardwasinBeijing2001-2008waterdata,usingmultiplelinearregression,toestablishthetotalamountofwaterandsurfacewater,groundwaterandsewagetreatmentcapacityofthelinearregressionequation

yˆ=-4.732+2.138x1+0.498x2+0.274x3

Again,theuseofgraycorrelationtodetermineagriculturalwater,industrialwater,industrialanddomesticwaterconsumptionassociatedwiththethirddegreeandtotalwaterconsumptionra=0.369852，rb=0.369167，rc=0.260981,Todeterminetheirriskofsignificantra>rb>rc.

Thenagain,theuseofthedatacurvefittingfunctionsbetweenagriculture,industryandtertiaryindustryanddomesticwaterconsumptionandbetweenyears

a=0.0019（t-1994）3-0.0383（t-1994）2-0.4332（t-1994）+20.2598;

b=0.014（t-1994）2-0.8261t+14.1337;

c=0.0383（t-1994）2-0.097（t-1994）+11.2116;

D=a+b+c

Predicttheamountofwater2009-2012

Afinalprediction,definedbythedegreeofwaterS=（Dy）/D=1-y/D,1994-2008calculateddegreeofwaterdrawnoutofthehistogram,dividingtherisklevel.Wetakemanyyearsofdatawerecompared,suggestingthatthenextfouryears,theamountofsurfacewaterandgroundwatertomaintaintheaveragelevelofthepreviouseightyears,thesewagetreatmentcapacityoftheaveragelevelinnearlythreeyears,2009-2012,thepredictedvalueobtained,andusingtheregressionequation

yˆ=-4.732+2.138x1+0.4982x2+0.274x3

Calculatetheamountofwatercorresponding.Bypredictingthetotalwaterconsumption,totalwaterresourcesandwaterleveloftheformulaS=（D-y）/D=1-y/D

Calculatethewaterlevelof2009-2012,accordingtothedivisionlevelofrisk,determinetherisklevelofwaterin2009-2012aretherisks.

Accordingtoourmodeltodeterminetheagriculturalwaterandsurfacewateristhemostimportantriskfactors,riskfactorscannotbequantifiedwithreferencetotheimpactoffactorssuchaspopulationsize,industrystructure,managementsystems,waterconservancyfacilities,etc.,accordingtothemodel,tocalculateanappropriatecorrectiondata,makesomerationalizationproposalstominimizeriskandtoreportwateradministrativedepartmentofBeijing.

1.Introduction

Chinaisaseriouslydroughtyandwater-scarcecountry.ThetotalfreshwaterresourcesofChinais2.8trillioncubicmeters,accountingfor6%oftheworld'sfreshwaterresources,secondonlytoBrazil,RussiaandCanada,rankedfourthintheworld.However,waterresourcepercapitainChinaisonly2,300cubicmeters,whichisonly1/4oftheworldaverage,andChinaisoneofthecountrieswiththepoorestwaterresourcespercapitaintheglobal.What'smore,Chinahasthemostwaterconsumptionintheworld.In2002,it’snationalfreshwaterusageamounthasalreadyreached549.7billioncubicmeters,accountingforabout13%oftheworld'sannualusageamount,anditisabout1.2timesoffreshwatersupply---470billioncubicmeterstheUnitedStatesusedin1995.

Sincethe1970s,Chinahasbegundryingout,whichisnotanalarmist,butanobjectivefact.Sincethe1980s,China'swatershortagehasalreadybeguntospreadfromthelocalgraduallytothewholecountry,andthesituationismoreandmoreserious,whichhasaseriousimpactonagricultureandthenationaleconomy.Soitisnecessarytobuildamathematicalmodelfordetermininganeffective,feasible,andcost-efficientwaterstrategyfor2013tomeettheprojectedwaterneedsofChinain2025,andthebestwaterstrategyshouldbeidentifiedassoonaspossible.

2.AnalysisofThisFreshwaterProbleminChina

Therequirementsofthesubjectaretodetermineafeasibleandeffective,andcost-effectivewaterstrategytomeetthewaterdemandin2025,whenitis2013.

Firstofall,itisnecessarytopredicthowlargethewaterdemandinChinawouldbein2015.Waterdemandisdeterminedbytheregionalfreshwatersupply-demandbalance,andthereforeitneedstopredicttheamountofwaterconsumptionandwatersupply.WaterresourcesdatainrecentyearsofeachareainChinacanbefoundbytheNationalBureauofStatistics.Withthesedata,thefunctionaboutthebothtwoandtimecanbefitted,andwaterconsumption、watersupplyofvariouspartsofChinain2025couldbeobtained.Thusthedryzonesandwatershortagecouldbedetermined.Withtoomanyprovincesandcities,andtoomuchdata,itisbettertowesplitChinaintoafewzonestostudy.

Astotheproblemofwatershortage,itneedstoraisesolutions.Ingeneral,storage、mobilization、desalination,sewagetreatmentandothermeasuresarethecommonreplenishmentmeasuresusedbythegovernment.Inordertoquantitativelystudytheseprograms,itneedstounderstandthespecificprocessofeachprogram,aswellaseachcostitproduced.Amongthem,thediversionmeasureshavebeenidentified.Todeterminethewaterdiversionroute,takingthewatermobilizationcostsintoaccount,inviewoftheextremelyunevendistributionofwaterresourcesinChina,thebestdiversionrouteneedstobedeterminedthroughthemethodoflinearprogramming.Inadditiontowatersupply,reducingthedemandforfreshwaterisalsooneoftheways,suchasincreasingthewaterprices,usingagriculturalirrigationdriptechnology,etc.Theyarealleffectivemeasures.Ontheotherhand,thegovernmentshouldalsoimprovethenationalwater-savingawareness.

Eachofthesemeasureshasitsowncosts,economicbenefitsandtheenvironmentalimpact.Whendeterminethewaterstrategy,itisnecessarytousingprioritiestomakedecisions.Soitneedstousetheanalytichierarchymodeltoassessandrankthevariousschemes.Whendeterminethebestsolution,combinationitalsoneedstoconsiderateitslocalconditionsanditsfeasibility.

Finally,itneedstofullycompensateforthewatershortage,anddeterminethebestwaterstrategyin2025.

3GeneralAssumptions

1.Assumingtheimpactofweatherconditionssuchasrainfallamountsofwatertoenterthefinalofallsurfacewaterresources;

2.Assumingthatthetotalamountofgroundwaterresourceswillnotreduceleakageandnolossinthetransportprocess;

3.Assumingallthewaterenteringtheamountofrenewablegroundwaterresources;

4.Assumingvariousfactorsonthetotalamountofwaterorwateranditsroleinthesizeoftheeffectofthesizeofthedegreeofriskconsistent.

5.Sizeofriskcanbemeasuredbythedegreeofseverityofwatershortages.

6.Assumingthereferencedatamodelisarealandeffective;

7.Assumingobjectivefactorstogetherwillnotmutated

4.SymbolsandDefinitions

Inthissection,wewillgivesomebasicsymbolsanddefinitionsinthe

Followingforconvenience:

AariableSymbols

Definition

y

thetotalamountofwater

x1,x2,x3

respectively,surfacewater,groundwater,sewagetreatmentcapacit

y^α

thevaluegivenbytheregressionequation

a,b,c

otherwateragriculturalwater,industrialwater,tertiaryindustryandlife

D

totalwaterconsumption

S

thedegreeofwaterscarcity

R

sizeofthedegreeofinfluence

T

year

Xi

referencesequence

Yi

standardizationofsequence

P

coefficientisresolved

F

degreesoffreedom

5thequestionrestated.

Watermeansavailablefordirecthumanuse,tokeepthenaturalwaterbodies.Includingsurfacewaterandgroundwateronland.

Riskreferstothecombinationofthelikelihoodandconsequencesofaparticularriskofhappening.

Watershortagerisk,referstothetimeandspaceinaparticularenvironmentalconditions,duetothepresenceofbothwaterrunoffanduncertainty,sothatthepossibilityofregionalwatersystemsandwatersupplyshortagesresultinglossoccurs.

CaseStudyofBeijing,Beijingisoneoftheworld'smetropolisseverewatershortage,itspercapitawaterresourcesshortage300m3,tothenationalaverageof1/8oftheworldaverageof1/30,isaseverewatershortageareasdatalistedinSchedulegives1979-2000shortageofwaterresourcesinBeijing.WatershortageinBeijinghasbecomeamajorfactorrestrictingtheimpactandsocialcapitalandeconomicdevelopment.Governmenthastakenaseriesofmeasures,suchaswaterdiversionprojectandbuildasewagetreatmentplant,industrialstructureadjustment.However,climatechangeandthedevelopmentofeconomyandsociety,thereisalwaystheriskofwatershortage.Howthemajorriskfactorstoidentifywaterresources,levelofriskofcausingharmtodivide,totakeappropriateandeffectivemeasurestoavoidtheriskofthedifferentriskfactors,ortoreducetheharmcausedbyit,whichisthestabilityofthesocio-economicstrategyforsustainabledevelopmentembodimenthasimportantsignificance.

"BeijingStatisticalYearbook2009"andMunicipalStatisticsprovidesinformationabouttheBeijingwaterresources.Usingthesedataandotherinformationavailabletoyoutodiscussthefollowingquestions:

1.Anevaluation