会计专业外文翻译两篇.docx

会计专业外文翻译两篇.docx

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会计专业外文翻译两篇

Ⅲ.外文翻译

外文翻译之一:

Newercanonsofcommon-stockinvestment

Authors:

Benjamin·Graham

Nationality:

USA

Source:

Securityanalysis

Releasedtimeandpagenumbers：

1934366——375页

Thetrendofearnings,althoughmostdangerousasasolebasisforselection,mayproveausefulindicationofinvestmentmerit.Ifthisapproachisasoundone,theremaybeformulatedanacceptablecanonofcommon-stockinvestment,containingthefollowingelements:

1.Investmentisconceivedasagroupoperation,inwhichdiversificationofriskisdependedupontoyieldafavorableaverageresult.

2.Theindividualissuesareselectedbymeansofqualitativeandquantitativetestscorrespondingtothoseemployedinthechoiceoffixed-valueinvestments.

3.Agreatereffortismade,thaninthecaseofbondselection,todeterminethefutureoutlookoftheissuesconsidered.

SecularExpansionasBasis.Maytheownershipofacarefullyselected,diversifiedgroupofcommonstocks,purchasedatreasonableprices,becharacterizedasasoundinvestmentpolicy?

AnaffirmativeanswermaybedevelopedfromanyoneofthreedifferentkindsofassumptionsrelatingtothefutureofAmericanbusinessandthepolicyofselectionthatisfollowed.Thefirstwillpositthatcertainbasicandlong-establishedelementsinthiscountry’seconomicexperiencemaystillbecountedupon.Theseare

（1）thatournationalwealthandearningpowerwillincrease,

（2）thatsuchincreasewillreflectitselfintheincreasedresourcesandprofitsofourimportantcorporations,and（3）thatsuchincreaseswillinthemaintakeplacethroughthenormalprocessofinvestmentofnewcapitalandreinvestmentofundistributedearnings.Thethirdpartofthisassumptionsignifiesthatabroadcausalconnectionexistsbetweenaccumulatingsurplusandfutureearningpower,sothatcommon-stockselectionisnotamatterpurelyofchanceorguessworkbutshouldbegovernedbyananalysisofpastrecordsinrelationtocurrentmarketprices.

Ifthesefundamentalconditionsstillobtain,thencommonstockswithsuitableexhibitsshouldonthewholepresentthesamefavorableopportunitiesinthefutureastheyhaveforgenerationspast.Thecardinaldefectofinstabilitymaynotberegarded,therefore,asmenacingthelong-rangedevelopmentofcommonstocksasawhole.Itdoesindeedexertapowerfultemporaryeffectuponallbusinessthroughthevariationsoftheeconomiccycle,andithaspermanentlyadverseeffectsuponindividualenterprisesandsingleindustries.Butofthesetwodangers,thelattermaybeoffsetinpartbycarefulselectionandchieflybywidediversification;theformermaybeguardedagainstbyunvaryinginsistenceuponthereasonablenessofthepricepaidforeachpurchase.

InourIntroductionwepointoutthattheexperienceofthelastfifteenyearsweighsagainstthisproposition.Withoutseekingtoprophesythefuture,mayitnotsufficetodeclarethattheinvestorcannotsafelyrelyuponageneralgrowthofearningstoprovidebothsafetyandprofitoverthelongpull?

Inthisrespectitwouldseemthatwearebacktotheinvestor’sattitudein1913—withthedifferencethathiscautionthenseemedneedlesslyblindtothepowerfulevidencesofseculargrowthinherentinoureconomy.Ourcautiontodaywouldappear,atleast,tobebasedonbitterexperienceandontherecognitionofsomenewerandlesspromisingfactorsinthewholebusinesspicture.

SelectionBasedonMargin-of-safetyPrinciple.Theapproachtocommon-stockinvestmentisbasedonthemargin-of-safetyprinciple.Iftheanalystisconvincedthatastockisworthmorethanhepaysforit,andifheisreasonablyoptimisticastothecompany’sfuture,hewouldregardtheissueasasuitablecomponentofagroupinvestmentincommonstocks.Thisattackontheproblemlendsitselftotwopossibletechniques.Oneistobuyattimeswhenthegeneralmarketislow,measuredbyquantitativestandardsofvalue.Presumablythepurchaseswouldthenbeconfinedtorepresentativeandfairlyactiveissues.Theothertechniquewouldbeemployedtodiscoverundervaluedindividualcommonstocks,whichpresumablyareavailableevenwhenthegeneralmarketisnotparticularlylow.Ineithercasethe“marginofsafety”residesinthediscountatwhichthestockissellingbelowitsminimumintrinsicvalue,asmeasuredbytheanalyst.Butwithrespecttothehazardsandthepsychologicalfactorsinvolved,thetwoapproachesdifferconsiderably.

FactorsComplicatingEffortstoExploitGeneralMarketSwings.Aglanceatthechartonpage6,showingthefluctuationsofcommon-stockpricessince1900,wouldsuggestthatpricesarerecurrentlytoohighandtoolowandthatconsequentlythereshouldberepeatedopportunitiestobuystocksatlessthantheirvalueandtosellthemoutlateratfairvalueorhigher.Acrudemethodofdoingthis—butoneapparentlyencouragedbythechartitself—wouldconsistsimplyofdrawingastraightlinethroughtheapproximatemidpointsofpastmarketswingsandthenplanningtobuysomewherebelowthislineandtosellsomewhereaboveit.

Perhapssucha“system”wouldbeaspracticalasany,buttheanalystislikelytoinsistonamorescientificapproach.Onepossiblerefinementwouldoperateasfollows:

1.Selectadiversifiedlistofleadingindustrialcommonstocks.

2.Determineabaseor“normal”valueforthegroupbycapitalizingtheiraverageearningsatsomesuitablefigure,relatedtothegoinglongterminterestrate.

3.Determineabuyingpointatsomepercentagebelowthisnormalvalueandasellingpointaboveit.（Orbuyingandsellingmaybedone“onascaledown”and“onascaleup.”）

Amethodofthiskindhasplausiblelogictorecommendit,anditisfavoredalsobyanage-oldtraditionthatsuccessinthestockmarketisgainedbybuyingatdepressedlevelsandsellingoutwhenthepublicisoptimistic.Butthereaderwillsuspectatoncethatthereisacatchtoitsomewhere.Whatareitsdrawbacks?

Asweseeit,thedifficultiesattendingthisideaarethreefold:

First,althoughthegeneralpatternofthemarket’sbehaviormaybeproperlyanticipated,thespecificbuyingandsellingpointsmayturnouttohavebeenbadlychosen,andtheoperatormaymisshisopportunityatoneextremeortheother.Second,thereisalwaysachancethatthecharacterofthemarket’sbehaviormaychangesignificantly,sothataschemeofoperationthatwouldhaveworkedwellinthepastwillceasetobepracticable.Third,themethoditselfrequiresaconsiderableamountofhumanfortitude.Itgenerallyinvolvesbuyingandsellingwhentheprevalentpsychologyfavorstheoppositecourse,watchingone’ssharesgolowerafterpurchaseandhigheraftersaleandoftenstayingoutofthemarketforlongperiods（e.g.,1927–1930）whenmostpeopleareactivelyinterestedinstocks.Butdespitethesedisadvantages,whichwedonotminimize,itisourviewthatthismethodhasagooddealtocommendittothosetemperamentallyqualifiedtofollowit.

TheUndervalued-individual-issueApproach.Theotherapplicationoftheprincipleofinvestinginundervaluedcommonstocksisdirectedatindividualissues,whichuponanalysisappeartobeworthsubstantiallymorethantheyaresellingfor.Itisrarethatacommonstockwillappearsatisfactoryfromeveryqualitativeangleandatthesametimewillbefoundtobesellingatalowpricebysuchquantitativestandardsasearnings,dividends,andassets.Issuesofthistypewouldundoubtedlybeeligibleforagrouppurchasethatwouldfulfilloursupplementarycriterionof“investment”giveninChap.4.（“Aninvestmentoperationisonethatcanbejustifiedonbothqualitativeandquantitativegrounds.”）Ofmorepracticalimportanceisthequestionwhetherornotinvestmentcanbesuccessfullycarriedonincommonstocksthatappearcheapfromthequantitativeangleandthat—uponstudy—seemtohaveaverageprospectsforthefuture.Securitiesofthistypecanbefoundinreasonabeabundance,asaresultofthestockmarket’sobsessionwithcompaniesconsideredtohaveunusuallygoodprospectsofgrowth.Becauseofthisemphasisonthegrowthfactor,quiteanumberofenterprisesthatarelongestablished,wellfinanced,importantintheirindustriesandpresumablydestinedtostayinbusinessandmakeprofitsindefinitelyinthefuture,butthathavenospeculativeorgrowthappeal,tendtobediscriminatedagainstbythestockmarket—especiallyinyearsofsubnormalprofits—andtosellforconsiderablylessthanthebusinesswouldbeworthtoaprivateowner.

Weinclinestronglytothebeliefthatthislastcriterion—apricefarlessthanvaluetoaprivateowner—willconstituteasoundtouchstoneforthediscoveryoftrueinvestmentopportunitiesincommonstocks.Thisviewrunscountertotheconvictionsandpracticeofmostpeopleseekingtoinvestinequities,includingpracticallyalltheinvestmenttrusts.Theiremphasisismainlyonlong-termgrowth,prospectsforthenextyear,ortheindicatedtrendofthestockmarketitself.Undoubtedlyanyofthese准投资机会的值于下来地位的惑oundinreasonablthreeviewpointsmaybefollowedsuccessfullybythoseespeciallywellequippedbyexperienceandnativeabilitytoexploitthem.Butwearenotsosurethatanyoftheseapproachescanbedevelopedintoasystemortechniquethatcanbeconfidentlyfollowedbyeveryoneofsoundintelligencewhohasstudieditwithcare.Hencewemustraiseoursolitaryvoiceagainsttheuseoftheterminvestmenttocharacterizethesemethodsofoperatingincommonstocks,howeverprofitabletheymaybetothetrulyskillful.Tradinginthemarket,forecastingnextyear’sresultsforvariousbusinesses,selectingthebestmediaforlong-termexpansion—allthesehaveausefulplaceinWallStreet.

Whetherornotourownconceptofcom