美国保尔森就全球经济讲话060913文档格式.docx

美国保尔森就全球经济讲话060913文档格式.docx

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TheprosperityoftheUnitedStatesandChinaistiedtogetherintheglobaleconomy,andhowweworktogetheronahostofbilateralandmultilateralissueswillhaveasignificantimpactonthehealthoftheglobaleconomy. 

HalfofallglobaleconomicgrowthinthelastfiveyearshascomefromtheUnitedStatesandChina,andourtwoeconomieswillcontinuetobethedriversofgrowthinthefuture.

YetmanyviewthegrowthofChinaanditsincreasingimportanceastheclearestandmosttangiblethreatofglobalization. 

ThosewhowelcomeChina'

sgrowthandintegrationintotheworldeconomy,asIdo,shouldconfrontthisargumentdirectly.

Ihavespent32yearsworkinginfinancialmarkets,muchofthattimeineconomiesaroundtheglobe,andIhavelearnedanumberofimportantlessons. 

Onelessonisthatthosenationsthatreformtheireconomiesandopenthemselvestocompetitionbenefittheircitizensgreatly. 

Theyhavebetterjobs,improvedlivingstandards,andgreateropportunity.

Atthesametime,thosenationsthattrytoclosethemselvesofffromcompetition,hinderfreemarkets,andfailtoinvestintheirpeople,simplygetleftbehind. 

Thebenefitsofcompetitionextendwellbeyondmanufacturedgoodsandagriculturalproducts. 

Greaterefficienciesandadvancedtechnologiesinanumberofserviceshaveamultipliereffect,strengtheningtheentireeconomy. 

OneareawhereIhavepersonalexperienceisinfinancialserviceswhereIamastrongadvocateofopeningupthedomesticcapitalmarketsandfinancialsystemsofourtradingpartnerstointernationalcompetition. 

Healthycapitalmarketsareabsolutelycriticaltoanynation'

slong-termeconomicsuccess. 

AndIdon'

tknowofasingleexampleofanationwhichhasastrongfinancialsystemandstrongcapitalmarketsthathasnotopeneditselfuptoforeigncompetition. 

TheU.S.experienceillustratesthebenefitsofopennessandcompetition. 

Oureconomyisbyfartheworld'

sstrongestbecauseitisbuiltonopenness?

opennesstopeopleofallnationalities,opennesstonewideas,opennesstoinvestment,andopennesstocompetition. 

Itisamodelthatothersstrivetoemulate. 

Andweaimtokeepitthatway. 

OurprovensuccesshasallowedustoeffectivelyadvocatefreetradeandopenmarketshereintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworld.

AgoodillustrationofthebenefitsofcompetitionthroughtradecanbefoundinAsia. 

Thirtyyearsago,economistandauthor,GunnarMyrdal,usedAsiaasametaphorforglobalpoverty. 

ButAsiannationsopenedtheirmarketsandallowedtheirbusinessestocompeteintheworldmarketplace. 

WhatMyrdalreferredtoastheAsianDramaisnowtheAsianmiracle,withhundredsofmillionsofpeoplefreedfrompoverty.

Vietnam,whereIattendedtheAPECmeetingslastweek,isacaseinpoint. 

In1986,theVietnameselaunchedtheDoiMoiprogramofeconomicreformsthatliberalizedVietnam'

seconomyandbegantoopenittoforeigntradeandinvestment. 

Vietnam'

stradehassincegrownby20-30%peryear,andthecountryhasbeensecondonlytoChinainitsrateofrealGDPgrowth. 

WhenIvisitedVietnam,Ispoketoitsleaders,butIalsospenttimewithyoungentrepreneursandstudents. 

Theyareeagertojointheglobaleconomyandreplicatethesuccessofothersintheregion. 

WemustappreciateandreinforceVietnam'

scommitmenttocontinuingeconomicreform,andtherules-basedtradingsystem. 

IwillworkcloselywiththePresident,mycolleaguesintheAdministration,andCongresstobringVietnamintotheWorldTradeOrganization,becauseitisintheinterestoftheUnitedStatesandVietnam.

Tradeisnotazero-sumgame. 

RapideconomicgrowthinVietnamandothernationsaroundtheworldbenefitsAmericansbyaddingtothegrowthoftheglobaleconomy,andovertime,creatinggreaterdemandforourproductsandmorejobsforourworkers. 

Ourprosperityislinkedtothestrengthofforeigneconomies. 

Andweareadverselyaffectedbytheireconomicdeclinesandfinancialshocks. 

TheAsianFinancialCrisisof1997mayhavereducedgrowthbyasmuchas1percentagepointintheUnitedStatesandEurope. 

Financialmarketsalsoareglobal. 

TheRussiandefaultin1998ledtoasuddenwideningincreditspreadsandafinancialshockwhichcontributedtothefailureofthehedgefund,LongTermCapitalManagement,intheUnitedStates. 

Therearenoislandsofeconomicstabilityintoday'

sworld. 

Globalizationandinterdependenceareheretostay. 

Nonationcanturnbacktheclock. 

Intoday'

sinterdependentworld,U.S.exportsandU.S.employmentopportunitiesareaffectedbyhowwellourmajortradingpartnersaredoing. 

Whenanymajoreconomydoeswell,itsgrowthbenefitstheoverallglobaleconomy. 

Whenamajoreconomyfalters,itisadragonglobalgrowth. 

WeseethisillustratedbyJapan,theworld'

ssecondlargesteconomy,whichstruggledforadecadewithsluggishgrowthanddeflation. 

Japan'

seconomicreformsoverthepastfiveyearshaveproducedaneconomicrecovery,andweallhavebenefitedfromtheboosttoglobalgrowthandtheincreaseinJapaneseimportdemand.Japan'

sreformsarenotcomplete,andtheymustcontinue. 

However,thesestepsdemonstratetheimportanceofgrowth-enhancingreformsinmajoreconomiesasaneffectivewaytoincreasejobsintheUnitedStatesandprosperityglobally.

Economicintegrationmakeseconomiesmoreefficient,moreproductive,andmorecompetitive. 

Integrationgivesbusinessesgreateraccesstomarketsaroundtheworld,andincreasestheirabilitytoachieveeconomiesofscale. 

Globalmarketsgiveconsumersmorechoices. 

Andglobalcompetitionhelpsreducethepricesofgoodsandservices?

arealbenefittothosewithlowerincomes,whetherintheUnitedStatesorabroad.

Enhancedcompetitionfromglobalintegrationgreatlybenefitstheinternationaleconomicsystem,particularlytheUnitedStates. 

TheInstituteforInternationalEconomicshasestimatedthattheintegrationoftheglobaleconomygeneratesaneconomicgainof$1trilliontotheU.S.economy,everyyear. 

AndIknowfrommypreviouslifeataninvestmentbankthatglobaleconomicintegrationalsoleadstoalowercostofcapital,moreopportunitiesforinvestorstoachievehigherreturns,andmorestablelong-termeconomicgrowth. 

Thisisthefoundationofprosperity,jobs,andopportunity. 

Yet,despitethebenefitsofcompetitionandtheexpansionofworldtrade,therearemanywhoopposewhatiscommonlyknowas"

globalization"

. 

Ironically,thisprotectionistsentimentcomesfrommanyquartersinthosenations?

includingintheUnitedStatesandChina?

whichhavebenefitedthemostfromtheeconomicgrowthgeneratedbyglobalcompetition. 

Thiswidespreadandgrowingresistanceisnotsurprising,becausethebenefitsofcompetition,whilesignificant,arenotspreadevenlyandcompetitioncancreatelosersaswellaswinners.

Theshort-termproblemsaremoreimmediatelyvisibleintheformofjoblossesthatareveryrealandpainful. 

Protectionistpoliciesdonotworkandthecollateraldamagefromthesepoliciesishigh. 

Byclosingoffcompetitionandblockingtheforcesofchange,protectionismreducesthelossesofthepresentbysacrificingtheopportunitiesofthefuture. 

Jobssavedintheshorttermjobareoff-setbymorejoblossesandalowerstandardoflivinginthefuture.

Ibelieveitistheresponsibilityofallnationstosearchforwaystomoderateincomedisparitiesandhelpthosewholosetheirjobstointernationalcompetition. 

WeinAmericamustthinkcreativelyabouthowtoassistthosewhofallbehind. 

AsthePresidenthasrepeatedlyemphasized,themosteffectivemethodforgeneratingnew,high-qualityjobs,andhigherlivingstandards,istodeveloptheskillsandthetechnologiesthatpromoteeconomiccompetitiveness.Thismeanshelpingpeopleofallagespursuefirstrateeducationandtrainingopportunities. 

BecauseIcaredeeplyaboutthecompetitivenessoftheU.S.economyIwillbeanoutspokenadvocateformaintaining?

andextending?

freeandfairtrade. 

TheUnitedStateswantsopenmarkets. 

Wewelcomeforeigninvestment. 

Andweseekpartnerstojoinusinadvancingaglobalagendathatwillhelprealizethebenefitsofeconomicliberalizationandcompetition. 

Wewillnotheedthesirensongsofprotectionismandisolationism.

WerecognizehowimportantitistoworkwithourmajortradingpartnerstorevivetheDoharoundoftradenegotiations. 

AndU.S.TradeRepresentativeSusanSchwabandothersarelookingforcreativewaystodojustthat.

Tradenegotiationsarenevereasy. 

ButtheDoharoundisjusttooimportanttoletslipaway. 

Wehavebeforeusanhistoricopportunityfortheinternationalcommunitytojointogethertogenerateeconomicgrowth,sparkdevelopment,andraiselivingstandardsacrosstheworldlikenootheraction. 

Thestakesarehuge. 

Andtheytranscendthepurelyeconomic. 

Closereconomictiesbetweennationshelppromoteinternationalpeaceandprosperitybycreatingcommoninterestsandraisingthecostsofconflict. 

Infact,thegreatestthreattodayisnotfromconflictbetweenstates,butfrominstabilitywithinstates,andfromthosestates,likeNorthKoreaandIran,whicharenotpreparedtoabidebyinternationalstandardsofconduct,includingWMDproliferationandterrorism. 

Itisalsotruethatthehopeandopportunitywhichcancomefrombroad-basedeconomicprogressca