国际金融托马斯复习资料Word下载.docx
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itimpliesthatdistributiveservicesliketransportandhandlingperformedongoodsuptothecustomsfrontieroftheeconomyfromwhichthegoodsareexportedareclassedasmerchandise.
2.1经常项目CurrentAccountbalance
Itisthenetvalueoftheflowsofgoods,service,income,andUnilateraltransfers.
Ifitispositive,thenationearnsthatmuchinextraassetsorreducedliabilitiesinitsdealingswithothercountries.Ifitisnegative,thecountrymustpaybygivingupassetsorincreasingitsliabilities.
Goodsandservicesbalanceequalsthenetexportsofbothgoodsandservices.Itisoftencalledthetradebalance.
包括:
1Merchandisetradeflows;
2Serviceflows;
3Incomeflows;
4Unilateraltransfer
2.2资本项目financialAccountBalance
Thenetflowsoffinancialassetsandsimilarclaims(excludingofficialassetflows)istheprivatecapitalaccountbalanceorfinancialaccountbalance.
资本项目记录的只是资产交易的本金金额(principalamounts),而投资国外资产的任何所得(earnings)均记录在经常项目中.
1美国居民增持外国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入借方,该居民对外国付款或增加贷款,资金流出美国(-)
2外国居民增持美国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入贷方,美国卖方(或借款人)接受外国的付款(或得到贷款),资金流入美国(+)
3美国居民减持外国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入贷方,该居民接受外国的付款(或收回借款),资金流入美国(+)
4外国居民减持美国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入借方,美国的买方(或借款人)对外国付款(或归还贷款),资金流出美国(-)
从金融资产本身流向:
2和3,美国出口金融资产(exportingfinancialassets),记为正;
1和例4,美国进口金融资产(importingfinancialassets),记为负.
从资金的流向:
23是资本进口(capitalimports),14是资本出口(capitalexports)
外国直接投资(foreigndirectinvestment)是:
由某主体(多为跨国公司)对其控股和掌控的国外企业进行的任何一种资金出借或产权购买.间接投资包括证券、贷款以及银行存款.投资于国外的债券和股票不属于对外直接投资,而是国际证券投资(internationalportfolioinvestment).它表明投资者并不拥有被投资企业的大额股份,而只是将这种投资作为其多样化投资的一个组成部分.
2.3官方国际储备资产officialinternationalreserveassets
Theyaremoney-likeassetsthatareheldbygovernmentsandthatarerecognizedbygovernmentsasfullyacceptableforpaymentsbetweenthem.
Themainreserveassetsare:
Gold,Freeexchangecurrencies,ReservepositionintheIMF(IMF的储备头寸),Specialdrawingright(特别提款权)
官方一词用以说明此类资产是由与货币相关的政府部门掌握的资产,而非整个政府拥有的资产.其他"
非官方"
政府资产则归于私人项目类别中.焦点是集中在调控币值这一货币管理任务.
2.4统计误差statisticaldiscrepancy
It’sthenetresultoferrorsandomissionsonboththecreditanddebitsides.
Themaindifficultyisprobablythatmanypeoplesucceedinhidingtheirimports,theirimports,theirforeigninvestmentincomes,andtheircapitalflightfromtheirowngovernmentofficials.
3经常项目差额的宏观含义
CA:
Currentaccountbalance
If:
Netforeigninvestment对外净投资
S:
Nationalsaving国民储蓄
Id:
Domesticrealinvestmentinbuildings,equipment,softwareandinventories国内直接投资
Y:
DomesticproductionofG&
S国内商品和服务的总产出
C:
DomestichouseholdconsumptionofG&
S本国对商品和服务的私人消费支出
G:
GovernmentspendingonG&
S政府对商品和服务的购买
X:
Foreignpurchasesofthecountry’sexportsofG&
S外国对本国商品和服务购买
M:
Thecountry’spurchasesofimportsofG&
Sfromothercountries本国对外国商品和服务的购买
E:
NationalexpenditureonG&
S一国对商品和服务的总支出
Thenetaccumulationofforeignassetsminusforeignliabilities.
①CA=If②S=If+Id(Id:
投资于国内用于本国资本形成;
投资于国外)①②→③CA=S-Id
④X-M=CA⑤Y=C+Id+G+X-M⑥E=C+Id+G④⑤⑥→⑦CA=Y-E
一国经常项目盈余:
①该国净对外投资为正(即该国对于其他国家来说是净债权国或投资国).ThecountryhaspositiveIf.(thecountryisanetlenderorinvestortoothercountries)
③该国国民储蓄超出国内投资.Thecountryissavingmorethaninvestingdomestically.
⑦该国的国内生产超出了(或说收入超出了)其对商品和服务的消费.Thecountryisproducingmore(andhasmoreincomefromthisproduction)thanitisspendingongoodsandservices.
4总差额的宏观含义Theoverallbalance
B:
Officialsettlementsbalance官方结算差
FA:
Financialaccountbalance金融项目差额
OR:
OfficialReserve官方储备资产
B=CA+FA(Theofficialsettlementbalanceequalsthesumofthecurrentaccountbalanceplustheprivatecapitalaccountbalance)
B+OR=0(由于国际收支平衡表中所有项目的总和必须为零,官方结算差额中任何不平衡都必须通过官方储备流动予以补抵(或支付))
如果总差额B为盈余,即意味着本国官方储备资产的增加或外国官方储备持有本国资产的减少(即在本国的官方储备账户中有一个借方差额).如果总差额为赤字,即意味着本国持有的官方储备资产减少或外国官方储备中持有的本国资产累积增加(即在本国官方储备账户有一个贷方差额).
一国货币当局可以出售外币而购回本币,这种交易可以减少当局官方国际储备中外汇资产的持有量;
或者,货币当局也可以出售本币而购买外币,这种交易增加了官方国际储备.
5国际投资头寸
Anation’sinternationalinvestmentpositionshowsitsstocksofinternationalassetsandliabilitiesatamomentoftime.
一国是贷款国(lender)还是借款国(borrower),是根据该国一定时期内经常项目差额是盈余还是赤字来判断的.一国是债权国(creditor)或是债务国(debtor),是根据该国持有的外国资产净存量是正值还是负值来判断的.前者涉及的是一段时期内的流量,后者涉及的是某一时点的存量.
C3外汇市场TheForeignExchangeMarket
1货币交易的基本知识
1.1国际汇兑Foreignexchangeistheactoftradingdifferentnation’smoneys.
1.2汇率Anexchangerateisthepriceofonenation’smoneyintermsofanothernation’smoney.
即期汇率Thespotexchangerateisthepricefor"
immediately"
exchange.
远期汇率Theforwardexchangerateisthepricenowforanexchangethatwilltakeplacesometimeinthefuture.
汇率报价ExchangeRateQuotation:
直接标价法(AU.S.dollarpriceoftheothercurrency)、间接标价法(ThepriceoftheU.S.dollarinunitsoftheothercurrency).两者互为倒数(Thepairsofpricesarejustreciprocals)分母是外币,分子是本币,就是直接标价法;
分母是本币,分子是外币,则为间接标价法.
1.3外汇市场
小额交易:
银行及其交易员与客户进行的交易Thetradingdonewithcustomersiscalledtheretailpartofthemarket
银行间同业市场:
银行之间进行的交易Thetradingdonebetweenthebanksactiveinthemarketiscalledtheinter-bankpartofthemarket.
媒介货币VehicleCurrency:
Oneforeigncurrencyisexchangedfordollars,andthesedollarsarethenexchangedfortheotherforeigncurrency.
2外汇的供给与需求DemandandSupplyforForeignExchange
2.1影响汇率的因素
商品和服务出口将带来外国货币的供给以及对本币需求的增加;
商品和服务的进口将带来对外国货币的需求和本币的供给增加;
资本流出将致使外国货币需求以及本币供给的增加,资本流入将致使外国货币供给以及本币需求的增加.
2.2浮动汇率FloatingExchangeRates
Thespotpriceofforeigncurrencyismarket-driven,determinedbytheinteractionofprivatedemandandsupplyforthecurrency..外汇的即期价格由市场决定,即由对货币的私人需求与供给的相互作用而决定,市场通过价格机制出清.
在浮动汇率制中,如果某种外币的需求曲线因某种原因右移(代表对外汇需求的增加),同时供给曲线保持不变,该外币的汇率便会上升.
2.3固定汇率FixedExchangeRates
Officialstrivetokeeptheexchangeratevirtuallyfixed(orpegged)eveniftheratetheychoosediffersfromthecurrentequilibriumrate.Anarrowbandofexchangeratesisallowedtovary.Iftheexchangeratehitsthetoporbottomoftheband,theofficialsmustintervene.在这种制度下,即使这一汇率与当前的均衡汇率有偏差,官方也会尽力保持汇率基本不变(或钉住其他货币).通常,官方会宣布一个窄幅的汇率区间,汇率可以在这一区间内变动.如果汇率达到了这一区间的上限或下限,官方必须予以干预.
Underthefloating-ratesystemafallinthemarketpriceofacurrencyiscalledadepreciationofthatcurrency;
ariseisanappreciation.Underthefixed-ratesystem,adiscreteofficialreductionintheotherwisefixedparvalueofacurrencyiscalledadevaluation;
adiscreteraisingoftheofficialparisarevaluation.在浮动汇率中,市场价格(汇率价值)的下降被称为该货币的下浮;
市场价格的上升则称为上浮.在固定汇率制下,我们将官方人为地降低货币平价的做法称为货币的贬值);
官方人为地提高货币平价称为升值.
2.4各国汇率制度安排
多数主要货币之间采用的都是浮动汇率;
尽管其他很多国家政府都对外汇市场进行了一定程度的官方干预来限制汇率的波动,但他们也宣称实行的是浮动汇率制;
一些国家和地区在本币与美元之间采用固定汇率;
一些国家与欧元保持固定汇率.
3即期外汇市场中的套汇交易
套汇Arbitrage,theprocessofbuyingandsellingtomakeanearlyrisklesspureprofit,ensuresthatratesindifferentlocationsareessentiallythesame,andthatratesandcross-ratesarerelatedandconsistentamongthemselves.
三角套汇thereisanopportunitytomakearisklessprofitbyarbitragingthroughthethreerates,aprocesscalledtriangulararbitrage.
C4外汇期货与国际金融投资
ForwardExchangeandInternationalFinancialInvestment
1汇率风险ExchangeRateRisk
Thenetworthofincome,wealthwillchangeswhenexchangerateschangeunpredictablyinthefuture.
保值Hedging:
Itistheactofreducingoreliminatinganetassetornetliabilitypositionintheforeigncurrency.
投机Speculating:
Itistheactoftakinganetassetpositionoranetliabilitypositioninsomeassetclass(inforeigncurrency).
2外汇期货的基本知识
远期外汇合约Aforwardforeignexchangecontractisanagreementtoexchangeonecurrencyforanotheronsomedateinthefutureatapricesetnow(theforwardexchangerate).Commondatesforfutureexchangeare30,90,180daysforward.
2.1外汇期货的套期保值HedgingUsingForwardForeignExchange
Hedginginvolvesacquiringanassetinaforeigncurrencytooffsetanetliabilitypositionalreadyheldintheforeigncurrency,oracquiringaliabilityinaforeigncurrencytooffsetanetassetpositionalreadyheld.Hedgingmeansavoidingbothkindsofopenpositionsinaforeigncurrency,bothlongpositionsandshortpositions.套期保值指取得某种外币资产以抵补已持有的该货币的净负债头寸,或用某种外币的净负债抵消已持有的该种外币的净资产头寸.套期保值就是减少同一外币"
敞口"
(openpositions),即多头头寸和空头头寸
2.2外汇期货投机
在投机中,未来的不确定性给投机者本币计值的净财富带来了风险和盈利机会.任何愿意持有外币头寸的人都是投机者,不论他们对于远期汇率抱有什么样的动机和预期.
外汇期货CurrencyFutures:
byenteringintoacurrencyfuturescontract,youcaneffectivelylockinthepriceatwhichyoubuyorsellaforeigncurrencyatasetdateinthefuture.
与远期外汇合约的不同:
Astandardcontract;
Requireamargintoensureyourtrading;
Profitorlossesaccrueddaily;
Low-costdirectmethodforcurrencyhedgingorspeculation.
外汇期权CurrencyOption:
aCurrencyOptiongivesthebuyer(orholder)oftheright,butnottheobligation,tobuyforeigncurrency(acalloption)ortosellforeigncurrencyatsometimeinthefutureatapricesettoday
期权是一种有价值的权利,买方向期权的卖方支付一定的权利金才能获得期权
外汇掉期CurrencySwap:
inacurrencyswaptwopartiesagreetoexchangeflowsofdifferentcurrenciesduringaspecifiedperiodoftime.
3国际金融投资InternationalFinancialInvestment
3.1抵补的国际投资Ahedgedinvestmentiscalledcoveredinternationalinvestment.
抵补利差CoveredInterestDifferential:
①CD=(1+iUK)f/e-(1+iUS)如果该差值为正,那么在英国投资较为有利.如果为负,那么投资就应转向美国国内.
远期升水Forwardpremium(F)istheproportionatedifferencebetweenthecurrentforwardexchangeratevalueofthepoundanditscurrentspot