文明冲突和文化差异对贸易的影响外文文献翻译.docx

文明冲突和文化差异对贸易的影响外文文献翻译.docx

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外文文献翻译

原文及译文

标题:

Clashofcivilizationsandtheimpactofculturaldifferencesontrade

作者:

GunesGokmen

期干1J：

JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,第127卷,449-458

年份：

2017

原文

Clashofcivilizationsandtheimpactofculturaldifferencesontrade

GunesGokmen

Abstract

ThispaperstudiestheClashofCivilizationshypothesisfromaneconomicperspective.Usingdataonbilateraltradeandmeasuresofculture,weevaluatehowtheimpactofculturaldifferencesontradeevolvesovertimeduringandaftertheColdWar.Evidencesuggeststhatthenegativeinfluenceofculturaldifferencesontradeismoreprominentinthepost-ColdWarerathanduringtheColdWar.Forinstance,ethnicdifferencesreducetradeby24%duringtheColdWar,whereasthisreductionis52%inthepost-ColdWarperiod.Wealsosuggestachannelforthedifferentialimpactofculturaldifferencesovertime.Bystudyingtheevolutionoftheeffectsofculturaldifferenceandcold-warblocsontrade,weprovideevidenceconsistentwiththehypothesisthatcold-warblocshavetrumpedculturaldifferencesduringtheColdWar.Thus,culturaldeterminantsoftradereplacecold-warblocsasamajorimpedimenttointernationaltradeonlyaftertheendoftheColdWar.

Keywords:

ColdWar,Culture,Economicclash,Trade

1.Introduction

Culturaldifferencesplayanimportantroleineconomicexchange.Inthiscontext,culturalbarrierstotradeareassociatedbothwithtransactioncosts,duetoinformalbarriers,trust,businessnetworks,informationalcostsandmisunderstandingsrelatedtonon-verbalcommunication,andwithdissimilarityofpreferencesandtastesofculturallydistantconsumers.Weaddtothislineofresearchbystudyinghowtheimpactofculturaldifferencesontradeevolvesovertime,andhowthisimpactinteractswiththeColdWar.

Inparticular,thispaperanalyzeshowtheeffectofculturaldifferencesontradechangesduringandaftertheColdWar.ThisrelatestotheClashofCivilizationshypothesisbyHuntington（1993a,1993b）.Thishypothesisputsforwardthatinthepost-ColdWarperiodthedominatingsourceofdiscordwillbecultural,anddissimilarityinculturewillleadtoclashesoverarangeofissuesincludingtrade.WhileHuntingtonarguesforanincreaseinbothviolentandnon-violentcompetitionamongculturalgroups,theClashofCivilizationshypothesishassofarreceivedattentionfromamilitaryconflictangleonly,andithasnotbeenempiricallytestedfromaneconomicperspective.Thisistheaimofthepresentpaper.Tothatend,usingcivilizations,religion,ethnicityandlanguageasproxiesofculture,weevaluatewhetherthenegativeeffectofculturaldifferencesontradeamplifiedinthepost-ColdWarera.

Employingbilateralimportsdataover1962-2012,weprovideevidencethatthenegativeinfluenceofculturaldifferencesontradeislargerinthepost-ColdWarerathanduringtheColdWar.Forinstance,ethnicdifferencesreducetradeby24%duringtheColdWar,whereasthisreductionis52%inthepost-ColdWarperiod.Additionally,wequantifythetariffequivalentcostsofculturaldifferencesfbrstandardlevelsofelasticitiesofsubstitutionintheliterature.Forexample,withanelasticityofsubstitutionofeight,thetariffequivalentcostofculturaldifferencesvariesbetween1.3%and7.4%duringtheColdWar,whilethisadditionalcostisbetween9.4%and19.4%inthepost-ColdWarera.

Furthermore,weexplorethemechanismfbrthedifferentialimpactofculturaldifferenceovertime.Huntington（1993a）arguesthatdissimilarityinculturegivesrisetodifferencesinhowweperceiveandcarryoutamultitudeofissues,includingeconomicexchange.Businessmenmakedealswithpeopletheycanunderstandandtrust;statessurrendersovereigntytointernationalorganizationscomposedoflike-mindedstatestheyunderstandandtrust.Thus,therootsofeconomiccooperationareinculturalcommonality.However,suchtendencies,heclaims,wereheldincheckbytheColdWar.ColdWarinstitutionsrepressedthesemorefundamentalchannelsofculture,andartificiallypromotedtradeamongcountriesofthesameColdWarbloc.Therefore,onlybytheendoftheColdWar,culturalcleavagesresurfacetoincreasinglyprevailoverideologicalones.

Tobetterunderstandthismechanism,weassigneachcountrytoacold-warblocandcreateanindicatorofdifferentblocs.Then,wetracktheevolutionoftheeffectsofculturaldifferencesanddifferentblocsontradeovertime.ThestrongnegativeeffectofdifferentblocsontradeovertheColdWardisappearsbytheendoftheColdWar,andinstead,culturaldifferencegainssignificanceasatradebarrier.Wealsoshowthatthedifferentialimpactofculturaldifferenceinthepost-ColdWareraislargelydrivenbyformersame-bloccountries.Theevidenceweprovideisconsistentwiththehypothesisthatcold-warblocshavetrumpedculturaldifferencesduringtheColdWar.Therefore,long-termculturaldeterminantsoftradegainmoresignificanceandreplacecold-warblocsasamajorimpedimenttointernationaltradeonlyaftertheendoftheColdWar.

Ourmainfindingsarerobusttoalternativespecifications.Weestimateagravitymodelofinternationaltradeaccountingfortime-varyingmultilateralresistancetermsaswellascountry-pairfixedeffects.Weemployasetofcultural-differencemeasuresthatallowustocapturedifferentaspectsofculture.Unlikeotherexistingstudies（FelbermayrandToubal,2010;Giulianoetal.,2006;Guisoetal.,2009;RauchandTrindade,2002）,ourdatasetcontainsmostofthecountriesoftheworld.Wecontrolfbranarrayofmeasuresofgeographicbarriersaswellashistoricalandpolicy-relateddeterminantsoftrade.Resultsarealsorobusttotakingintoaccounttime-varyingeffectofdistance,geneticdistanceasanalternativemeasureofculture,politicalproximity,communicationchannel,zerotradeflows,andarichsetofgeographiccontrols.

ThisstudycontributestotheliteratureontheClashofCivilizationsthesisbyaddinganeconomicperspective.Thisstrandoftheliteraturehasfocusedonthemilitarizeddisputesaspectofthethesisanditsimplicationsfbreconomicinteractionamongculturalgroupsremainedunexamined.Toourknowledge,wearethefirsttostudythisthesisfromaneconomicperspective.

Thispaperalsoaddstotheliteratureontradeandculturebybringinginthedynamicsandshowingtheevolutionoftheeffectsofculture.Inthisstrandoftheliterature,fbrinstance,FelbermayrandToubal（2010）establishacorrelationbetweencultureandtradeusingscoresfromtheEurovisionSongContestasaproxyfbrculturalproximity.Guisoetal.（2009）showthatbilateraltrustbetweenpairsofEuropeancountriesleadstohighertradebetweenthem.However,thedynamicaspectoftheinfluenceofcultureisabsentintheseanalyses.Thiscouldbeimportant,forinstance,toexplaintherecentregionalizationphenomenon.Moreover,weknowthattradeaffectsconflictinvolvement（Martinetal.,2008）,andourresultssuggestthat,inthepost-ColdWarera,culturaldifferencesmighthaveanadditionalindirecteffectontheprobabilityofconflictbyreducingbilateraltrade.

AnotherstrandofrelatedliteraturelooksattradeinthecontextoftheColdWar.Importantly,Bergeretal.（2013）showthatduringtheColdWarimportsfromtheUSincreasedasaresultofstrongerpoliticalinfluencearisingfromCIAinterventions.Alternatively,DjankovandFreund（2002）studytradebetweenRussianregionsandformerSovietrepublics,andfindthatthereisanincreasingbiastowarddomestictradeafterthedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion.

2.Econometricspecificationanddata

MeasureofTrade.Tradedatabetween1962and2012arefromtheUNComtradeTradeDataSet.

MeasuresofCulture.Asafirstmeasureofculture179countriesareclassifiedasmembersofvariouscivilizations.ThesecivilizationsareWestern,Sinic,Islamic,Hindu,Orthodox,LatinAmerican,African,Buddhistand"Lone"States.TheclassificationandtheconstructionofcivilizationmembershipisbasedonHuntington（1998）.Accordingly,eachcountryisassignedtoacivilization.Then,toindicatecivilizationaldissimilaritywithinapairweconstructanindicatorvariable,"DifferentCivilizations,5,denotingwhetherapairofcountriesbelongtodifferentcivilizations.Outof15,931country-pairs,2875pairsareformedofcountriesbelongingtothesamecivilizationand13,056pairstodifferentcivilizations.

Inaddition,TanjaEllingsen's"EthnicWitches'BrewDataSet"providesuswithdataonreligious,linguisticandethnicfragmentationwithincountriesbetween1945-2012.Ellingsen（2000）collecteddataonthedominantlinguistic,religious,andethnicgroupsofcountries.Whatisimportantfbrourpurposesinthisdatasetistheinformationonthenameofthelargestlinguistic,religious,andethnicgroups.Werecodethesevariablessothattheytakevalueonewhentwocountrieshavedifferentmajorityreligion,"DifferentReligion,,,ordifferentmajorityethnicity,"DifferentEthnicity",ordifferentmajoritylanguage,''DifferentLanguage,5,zerootherwise.

OtherDeterminantsofTrade.Geographicbarriersproxytransportationaswellasinformationcosts.Correspondingly,wecontrolforcontiguityandgeodesicdistancebetweenthemajorcitiesofthecountries.Tocontrolfbrhistorical,politicalandinstitutionallinksweincludeindicatorvariablesfbrwhetherapairofcountrieseverhadacolonialrelationship;hadacommoncolonizerafter1945;andwhetherthetwocountrieshavebeenpartofthesamepolity.Inaddition,samelegaloriginsinapairofcountriesmightreduceinformationcostsrelatedtolegalandregulatorysystems,andsharingthesamelegalorig