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Theorem2.4.1Ifandaremutuallyexclusive,then
(2.4.1)
Mutuallyindependent事件的独立性
Twoeventsandaresaidtobeindependentif
OrTwoeventsandareindependentifandonlyif
.
ConditionalProbability条件概率
Theprobabilityofaneventisfrequentlyinfluencedbyotherevents.
DefinitionTheconditionalprobabilityof,given,denotedby,isdefinedby
if.(2.5.1)
Themultiplicationtheorem乘法定理
Ifareevents,then
Iftheeventsareindependent,thenforanysubset,
(全概率公式totalprobability)
Theorem2.6.1.IftheeventsconstituteapartitionofthesamplespaceSsuchthatforthanforanyeventof,
(2.6.2)
(贝叶斯公式Bayes’formula.)
Theorem2.6.2IftheeventsconstituteapartitionofthesamplespaceSsuchthatforthanforanyeventAofS,,
.for(2.6.2)
ProofBythedefinitionofconditionalprobability,
Usingthetheoremoftotalprobability,wehave
1.randomvariabledefinition
Definition3.1.1Arandomvariableisarealvaluedfunctiondefinedonasamplespace;
i.e.itassignsarealnumbertoeachsamplepointinthesamplespace.
2.Distributionfunction
Definition3.1.2Letbearandomvariableonthesamplespace.Thenthefunction
.
iscalledthedistributionfunctionof
NoteThedistributionfunctionisdefinedonrealnumbers,notonsamplespace.
3.Properties
Thedistributionfunctionofarandomvariablehasthefollowingproperties:
(1)isnon-decreasing.
Infact,if,thentheeventisasubsetoftheevent,thus
(2),
.
(3)Forany,.Thisistosay,thedistributionfunctionofarandomvariableisrightcontinuous.
3.2DiscreteRandomVariables离散型随机变量
Definition3.2.1Arandomvariableiscalledadiscreterandomvariable,ifittakesvaluesfromafinitesetor,asetwhoseelementscanbewrittenasasequence
geometricdistribution(几何分布)
X
1
2
3
4
…
k
P
p
q1p
q2p
q3p
qk-1p
Binomialdistribution(二项分布)
Definition3.4.1ThenumberofsuccessesinBernoullitrialsiscalledabinomialrandomvariable.Theprobabilitydistributionofthisdiscreterandomvariableiscalledthebinomialdistributionwithparametersand,denotedby.
poissondistribution(泊松分布)
Definition3.5.1AdiscreterandomvariableiscalledaPoissonrandomvariable,ifittakesvaluesfromtheset,andif
(3.5.1)
Distribution(3.5.1)iscalledthePoissondistributionwithparameter,denotedby.
Expectation(mean)数学期望
Definition3.3.1Letbeadiscreterandomvariable.Theexpectationormeanofisdefinedas
(3.3.1)
2.Variance方差standarddeviation(标准差)
Definition3.3.2Letbeadiscreterandomvariable,havingexpectation.Thenthevarianceof,denotebyisdefinedastheexpectationoftherandomvariable
(3.3.6)
Thesquarerootofthevariance,denoteby,iscalledthestandarddeviationof:
(3.3.7)
probabilitydensityfunction概率密度函数
Definition4.1.1Afunctionf(x)definedoniscalledaprobabilitydensityfunction(概率密度函数)if:
(i);
(ii)f(x)isintergrable(可积的)onand.
Definition4.1.2
Letf(x)beaprobabilitydensityfunction.IfXisarandomvariablehavingdistributionfunction
(4.1.1)
thenXiscalledacontinuousrandomvariablehavingdensityfunctionf(x).Inthiscase,
.(4.1.2)
5.Mean(均值)
Definition4.1.2LetXbeacontinuousrandomvariablehavingprobabilitydensityfunctionf(x).Thenthemean(orexpectation)ofXisdefinedby
(4.1.3)
providedtheintegralconvergesabsolutely.
6.variance 方差
Similarly,thevarianceandstandarddeviationofacontinuousrandomvariableXisdefinedby
(4.1.4)
WhereisthemeanofX,isreferredtoasthestandarddeviation.
Weeasilyget
.(4.1.5)
.
4.2UniformDistribution均匀分布
Theuniformdistribution,withtheparametersaandb,hasprobabilitydensityfunction
4.5ExponentialDistribution指数分布Definition4.5.1AcontinuousvariableXhasanexponentialdistributionwithparameter,ifitsdensityfunctionisgivenby
(4.5.1)
Theorem4.5.1ThemeanandvarianceofacontinuousrandomvariableXhavingexponentialdistributionwithparameterisgivenby
4.3NormalDistribution正态分布
1.Definition
Theequationofthenormalprobabilitydensity,whosegraphisshowninFigure4.3.1,is
4.4NormalApproximationtotheBinomialDistribution(二项分布)
nislarge(n>
30),piscloseto0.50,
4.7Chebyshev’sTheorem(切比雪夫定理)
Theorem4.7.1Ifaprobabilitydistributionhasmeanμandstandarddeviationσ,theprobabilityofgettingavaluewhichdeviatesfromμbyatleastkσisatmost.Symbolically,
Jointprobabilitydistribution(联合分布)
Inthestudyofprobability,givenatleasttworandomvariablesX,Y,...,thataredefinedonaprobabilityspace,thejointprobabilitydistributionforX,Y,...isaprobabilitydistributionthatgivestheprobabilitythateachofX,Y,...fallsinanyparticularrangeordiscretesetofvaluesspecifiedforthatvariable.
5.2Conditionaldistribution条件分布
ConsistentwiththedefinitionofconditionalprobabilityofeventswhenAistheeventX=xandBistheeventY=y,theconditionalprobabilitydistributionofXgivenY=yisdefinedas
forallxprovided.
5.3Statisticalindependent随机变量的独立性
Definition5.3.1Supposethepair{X,Y}ofrealrandomvariableshasjointdistributionfunctionF(x,y).IftheF(x,y)obeytheproductrule
forallx,y.
thetworandomvariablesXandYareindependent,orthepair{X,Y}isindependent.
5.4CovarianceandCorrelation协方差和相关系数
WenowdefinetworelatedquantitieswhoseroleincharacterizingtheinterdependenceofXandYwewanttoexamine.
Definition5.4.1SupposeXandYarerandomvariables.Thecovarianceofthepair{X,Y}is
Thecorrelationcoefficientofthepair{X,Y}is
Where
Definition5.4.2TherandomvariablesXandYaresaidtobeuncorrelatediff.
5.5LawofLargeNumbersandCentralLimitTheorem中心极限定理
Wecanfindthesteadilyofthefrequencyoftheeventsinlargenumberofrandomphenomenon.Andtheaverageoflargenumberofrandomvariablesarealsosteadiness.Theseresultsarethelawoflargenumbers.
Theorem5.5.1Ifasequenceofrandomvariablesisindependent,with
then
.(5.5.1)
Theorem5.5.2LetequalsthenumberoftheeventAinnBernoullitrials,andpistheprobabilityoftheeventAonanyoneBernoullitrial,then
.(5.5.2)
(频率具有稳定性)
Theorem5.5.3Ifisindependent,with
then.
population(总体)
Definition6.2.1Apopulationisthesetofdataormeasurementsconsistsofallconceivablypossibleobservationsfromallobjectsinagivenphenomenon.
Apopulationmayconsistoffinitelyorinfinitelymanyvarieties.
sample(样本、子样)
Definition6.2.2Asampleisasubsetofthepopulationfromwhichpeoplecandrawconclusionsaboutthewhole.
sampling(抽样)
takingasample:
Theprocessofperforminganexperimenttoobtainasamplefromthepopulationiscalledsampling.
中位数
Definition6.2.4Ifarandomsamplehastheorderstatistics,then
(i)TheSampleMedianis
(ii)TheSampleRangeis
SampleDistributions抽样分布
1.samplingdistributionofthemean均值的抽样分布
Theorem6.3.1Ifismeanoftherandomsampleofsizefromarandomvariablewhichhasmeanandthevariance,then
and.
Itiscustomarytowriteasandas.
Here,iscalledtheexpectationofthemean.均值的期望
iscalledthestandarderrorofthemean.均值的标准差
7.1PointEstimate点估计
Definition7.1.1Supposeisaparameterofapopulation,isarandomsamplefromthispopulation,andisastatisticthatisafunctionof.Now,totheobservedvalue,ifweuseasanestimatedvalueof,theniscalledapointestimatorofandisreferredasapointestimateof.Thepointestimatorisalsooftenwrittenas.
Unbiasedestimator(无偏估计量)
Definition7.1.2.Supposeisanestimatorofaparameter.Thenisunbiasedifandonlyif
minimumvarianceunbiasedestimator(最小方差无偏估计量)
Definition7.1.3Letbeanunbiasedestimatorof.Ifforanywhichisalsoanunbiasedestimatorof,wehave
theniscalledtheminimumvarianceunbiasedestimatorof.Sometimesitisalsocalledbestunbiasedestimator.
3.MethodofMoments矩估计的方法
Definition7.1.4
SupposeconstitutearandomsamplefromthepopulationXthat