The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx

The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx

《The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx（13页珍藏版）》请在冰点文库上搜索。

TheEffectsofCarbonTariffsonChinaSteelExportsAnalysis译文

TheEffectsofCarbonTariffsonChinaSteelExportsAnalysis

ShipingWANG

SchoolofBusinessJiujiangUniversity,Jiujiang,China

Abstract:

Inrecentyears,Chinasteelindustryhaswonrapiddevelopment.However,dealingwithclimatechangeanddevelopingalowcarboneconomywillbecometheconsensusoftheinternationalcommunityaftertheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferenceinCopenhagenandCancunClimateConference2009.Allthecountriesshouldpayhighattentiontothelowcarboneconomytoprotectglobalatmosphere.Inthiscondition,thedevelopedcountriesareseekingtolevy“carbontariffs”tochangecurrentglobalwarmingandgreenhousegasreducingproblemsandto“restraintheunfaircompetitionfromChina”.

Keywords:

Carbontariff;China;Steelindustry

1Introduction

Carbontariffreferstothespecialtariffleviedbytheimportcountryiftheproductsproducedbyacountrycannotuptotheenergysavingandemittingreducingstandardstipulatedbytheimportcountry,thiskindoftariffmainlyleviedonthecarbonextensivelygoods,suchasAL,steel,andsoon.TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeprovidestheopportunityforthedevelopedcountriestolevycarbontariffs.DuringSept.1992,intheenvironmentanddevelopmentmeetingoftheUNheldinBrazilRiodeJaneiro,totally192countriessignedTheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangetoprotecttheglobalenvironment.In1997,thesecountriessignedKyotoProtocol.InJun.22,2009,AmericanCleanEnergyandSecurityBillwaspassedbyTheHouseofRepresentatives,Americanhasrighttolevytariffontheimportedgoodsfromthecountrywhichdonotenforcecarbonemittingreducingrestrictionsfrom2020.OnDec.24，2009,intheMembersoftheEUEnvironmentMinistersInformalMeeting,FranceputforwardtolevycarbontariffontheimportedgoodsfromthecountrywhichisnotasstrictasEUontheaspectofenvironmentlegislationfrom2010torestricttheunfaircompetitionfromChinaandtheothercountries.

2ConditionoftheChinasteelexport

From2003to2007,averageannualincreasingspeedofChinasteeloutputis21%,averageannualexportspeedofsteelisaround46.5%.However,during2008,Chinasteelexporthasthetendencyofparabola.Inthefirsthalfof2008,Chinasteelexporthastheupwardtendency.DuringAugust,theexportis768milliontons.FromSept.,steelexportsdecreasemonthbymonth,theaveragedecreaseisupto26.7%.During2008,thetotalsteelexportis5923milliontons,whichdecreasesaround5.5%comparingwith2007.Inthefirstquarterof2009,thedataofChinasteelexportisvibrating.Fromthenon,theexportincreasespermonthandrealizesthe8monthcontinuousimprovingand7-monthincrease.In2009,Chinasteelexportis2610milliontons,importis2326milliontons,thenetexportis284milliontons,whichdecreasesgreatlycomparingwiththeyear2008.Chinasteelexportsgothroughthegloomiestyearafter2006.During2010,steelexportis4256milliontons,increase73%comparingwith2009.From1to7,theexportincrease1.52timesthanthesameperiodof2009,from8to12,theexportincreasespeeddecreasesto7.4%;importsteel1643milliontons,decreasing6.8%,importbillet64milliontons,decreasing86.1%[1].Themainreasonisthemoreandmoreinternationaltradeprotection,hotmarketcompetition,increasingRMBappreciationpressure,cancelling9%tariffreturnedafterexportofsomesteels,highpressureofstructuralsteeloutputsurplus.

3EffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

3.1AnalysisofChinasteelexportcarbonemission

In2005,carbonemissioninChinaisabout18%oftheglobalemission,whichisthesecondplacejustbelowAmerica;carbonemissionofthepercapitaisratherlow.Thepercapitaemissionin2005isabout3.9tons,whichislowerby4.2tonthantheglobalaveragelevelbutthecarbonemissionintensityofChinaishigh.In2006,theCO2emissioninChinais6.2billionmetricton,whichisaboveAmericaandtakesthefirstplaceintheworld.ItisestimatedthatthegrowingspeedofthesteelproductioninChina,India,andBrazilwillbethehighestinthecomingtenyears.EventhoughChinarealizetheaimwhichreducestheunitGDPcarbonemissionby40%-45%than2005,itwillstillincreasethetotalcarbonemissionby75%-90%,thatis5.5to6.8billionmetrictonCO2,whichishigherthanthepresenttotalemissionoftheEU[2].

3.2EffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

1）OpportunitiesbroughtbycarbontarifftoChinasteelexport

Foralongtime,Chinahastoadopttheextensivemodeofeconomicgrowthbecauseoftherestrictionsoflargenumbersofpeople,lowtechnologydevelopment,andsoon,whichinevitablycausesresourcewastingandenvironmentpollution.Withtheadventofcarbon,Chinasteelhastochangetraditionaldevelopmentformandadoptneweconomicstructurefocusingonlowcarbon,whichwillacceleratethetransformationofthetraditionalindustryandthedevelopmentofthenewindustryandpromoteChinatobeoneofthebiggestlowcarbonsteelexportcountriesintheworld.CarbontariffbringsthebrilliantprospectsandopportunitiesforChinasteelexportandadvancesthetimetableoftheChinalowcarbondevelopment.CarbontariffbringsbothpressuresandopportunitiestoChinasteelexport.

2）AdverseeffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

a）Increasingexportcostsanddecreasingcompetingability

EuropeandAmericaarethemainexportmarketsofChinasteel,theylevycarbontariffactively.AmongthemainChineseexports,unitcarbonvalueofsomelabor-intensiveproductsisnothigh,whiletheexportvolumeofthesegoodsishigh.Forexample,carbonvalueofshoesandclothesisaround7%,someelectronicgoodsaswashingmachines,air-conditionersandTVsetsisbelow5%.Buttheadditionalvalueofthesegoodsisverylow,theaverageprofitsofChinamechanicalandelectronicindustriesarearound3%-6%.Therefore,theseindustriesareverysensitivetothefluctuationofthetariff.Forthebulkofexportproducts,theunitcarbonvalueofsteelishigh,whichis17%,ifthecarbontariffislevied,steelexportwillbeeffectedseriously.TheresearchexportoftheWorldBankpointsoutthatifcarbontariffiswidelyadopted,Chinasteelwillbelevied26%tariffs,theexportwilldecrease21%.

b）DecreasingofSteelExports

IfpertonoftheChinesehigh-energy-consuminggoodsisleviedtariffofUSD30orUSD60,Chinasteelexportwilldecrease3.53%and6.95%,what’smore,theaboveeffectsarecontinuous.CGEmodelwasadoptedtoanalyzetheeffectsofUSD30orUSD60carbontariffstotheproduction,exportandemploymentofsteelindustry,theeffectsmanifestthatifUSD30islevied,steelexportdecreases3.53%,totaloutputdecreases0.62%inthefirstyear,inthesecondyear,exportandoutputdecrease3.01%and0.49%respectively;ifUSD60islevied,steelexportdecreases6.95%,totaloutputdecreases1.22%inthefirstyear,inthesecondyear,exportandoutputdecrease5.97%and0.97%respectively.UnderthelevystandardofUSD30,Chinaproductionindustrywillneedatleast5yearstodigesttheadverseeffectsofthecarbontariffandmorethan7yearstoeliminateattacksofthecarbontarifftosteelexport.Furthermore,theoutputdecreaseofthe5industriescausedbycarbontariffissuccessivelyinstrumentationandofficemachinerymanufacturingindustry,textileindustry,leatherclothinganddownproductsindustry,electricalmachineryandelectroniccommunicationequipmentmanufacturingindustry[3].Amongthem,themostseriouslyaffectedisinstrumentationandofficemachinerymanufacturingindustry,itsoutputdecrease3.5%undertheUSD30carbontariff,ifUSD60islevied,itsoutputdecreases6.96%;theoutputofthetextileindustrydecreases1.6%undertheUSD30carbontariff,and3.18%underUSD60.

c）DeterioratingofsteelexportTradeterms

Thesteelexportcostscontinuousincreaseasaresultofthecarbontariffleviedbythedevelopedcountries.BecausetheChinalaborresourcesendowmentisrestrictedandthedevelopedcountrieshavetechnologyadvantages,thecarbontariffsleviedbythedevelopedcountriesforceChinatoimportthenewenvironmentalprotectivetechnology,newenergy,equipmentandproduct.Itwillformnewtechnologygapandenlargetechnologydifferences,whichwillformnewproductandtechnologyexportadvantagesofthedevelopedcountriesandincreasetheexportpriceofthedevelopedcountriesandthelowexportpriceofChineseproducts,includingsteel.ThedevelopedcountriesadoptcarbontariffinnameofenvironmentprotectionwillcausethedevelopingcountriesincludingChinatoadopttheretaliatingtradebarrierswhichwillbreedingtheprotectionismandresulttheineffectivenessoftheinternationaltraderulesandtheconfusionofthetradepattern.TheinternationaltradestepofChinawillbeblockedandthetradedisputesbetweenChinaandthedevelopedcountrieswillincrease.Forexample,EUdecidedtotakeaviationindustryintothecarbonemittingsystem,morethan2000aviationcompanieswillbeforcedtopayhighcarbonemittingfeesfortheplanestakingoffandlandingontheEUairport,thismeasurewillmakeChinaairlinestopay8hundredmillionYuan.Inaddition,thenewenvironmentprotectionlawpassedonJune,12,2010inFrancerequirestheproductssoldintheFrancmarkettorevealtheenvironmentinformationoftheproducts,includingthewholelifecycle（fromrawmaterial,production,transportation,disposalandcollection）andthecontentofcarbon.England,Japan,American,Sweden,Canada,Koreaalsohavesuchkindoflegislatio