上海海事大学管理学原理英文版PPT第四章.ppt

上海海事大学管理学原理英文版PPT第四章.ppt

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TheManagerasaDecisionMaker,LearningObjectives,LearningObjectives,14,TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking,Decisionmakingisapartofallmanagersjob,Processbywhichmanagersrespondtoopportunitiesandthreatsbyanalyzingoptions,andmakingdecisionsaboutgoalsandcoursesofaction,Decision:

Achoicemadefromavailablealternatives.,Decisionmaking:

15,TypesofDecisionMaking,16,TypesofDecisionMaking,Non-ProgrammedDecisionMaking,ProgrammedDecisionMaking,Routine,almostautomaticprocess,Therearerulesandguidelinestofollow,Unusualsituationsthathavenotbeenoftenaddressed.,Norulestofollowsincethedecisionisnew,17,ExamplesofManagerialDecision-MakingSituation,Fast-foodrestaurant,TypeofOrganization,ProgrammedDecision,Non-programmedDecision,University,Auto-maker,Determinesupplierstobereordered,Identifylocationfornewfranchise,Decideifstudentsmeetgraduationrequirements,Choosenewacademicprograms,Determineunionemployeepayrates,Selectnewcardesign,18,ManagementLevel,DecisionType,First-line,Middle,Top,Non-programmedDecision,ProgrammedDecision,Thehighmanagementlevelamanageron,themorenon-programmeddecisionheshouldmake,19,DecisionMakingModel,TheClassicalModel,Listalternatives&consequences,Rankeachalternativefromlowtohigh,Selectbestalternative,AssumesallinformationisavailabletomanagerAssumesmanagercanprocessinformationAssumesmanagerknowsthebestfuturecourseoftheorganization,Assumption,110,DecisionMakingModel,TheAdministrativeModel,DevelopedbyJamesMarchandHerbertSimon,Cognitivelimitationsconstraindecisionmakingability,RiskandUncertaintyAmbiguityTimeandcostconstraints,Acceptableandsatisfactorydecisionratherthanoptimumone,LearningObjectives,112,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,Recognizeneedforadecision,Frametheproblem,Generate&assessalternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,113,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Managersmustfirstrealizethatadecisionmustbemade,114,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Managersmustdevelopfeasiblealternativecoursesofaction,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,115,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Whataretheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachalternative,116,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,116,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Managersrankalternativesanddecide.,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,117,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Managersmustnowcarryoutthealternative,StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess,118,Recognizeneedforadecision,Generatealternatives,Evaluatealternatives,Chooseamongalternatives,Implementchosenalternative,Learnfromfeedback,Managersshouldconsiderwhatwentrightandwrongwiththedecisionandlearnforthefuture,LearningObjectives,120,Cognitivebiasesareinevitableindecisionmakingprocess,DanielKahneman,AmosTversky,121,PriorHypothesis,Representativeness,IllusionofControl,EscalatingCommitment,CognitiveBiases,TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource,122,PriorHypothesis,Representativeness,IllusionofControl,EscalatingCommitment,CognitiveBiases,TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource,Makedecisionbasedonpriorbelief,123,PriorHypothesis,Representativeness,IllusionofControl,EscalatingCommitment,CognitiveBiases,TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource,Makedecisionbasedonsmallsampleorsinglecase,124,PriorHypothesis,Representativeness,IllusionofControl,EscalatingCommitment,CognitiveBiases,TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource,Makedecisionbasedonoverestimateability,125,PriorHypothesis,Representativeness,IllusionofControl,EscalatingCommitment,CognitiveBiases,TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource,Ignoreadverseevidenceandincreaseinvestment,LearningObjectives,127,GroupDecision,128,GroupDecisionMakingMethods,ConfirmQuestion,Expertsanswerquestionnairesindependently,Collectandanalyzequestionnaires,Feedbackandanotherroundagain,Obtainconsensustosolvequestion,DelphiTechnique,TheDelphiTechniquewasoriginallyconceivedasawaytoobtaintheopinionofexpertswithoutnecessarilybringingthemtogetherfacetoface.,MajorSteps:

129,GroupDecisionMakingMethods,NominalGroupTechnique,Adecisionmakingmethodforuseamonggroupsofmanysizes,whowanttomaketheirdecisionquickly,asbyavote,butwanteveryonesopinionstakeninto.,MajorSteps:

130,GroupDecisionMakingMethods,Brainstorming,DevelopedbyAlexF.Osbornin1953Agroupcreativitytechniquedesignedtogeneratealargenumberofideasforthesolutionofaproblem,Focusonquantity,Withholdcriticism,Welcomeunusualideas,Combineandimproveideas,BasicRules,131,GroupDecisionMakingMethods,132,K,A,TypesofDecisions,C,Understand,Administrativedecisionmakingmodel,Howtoconquercognitivebiases?

Howtomakeappropriategroupdecision?

Summaryandreview,DecisionMakingProcess,Cognitivebiases,Compare,AdvantageanddisadvantageofGroupDecisionMaking,