报刊Word格式.docx

报刊Word格式.docx

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Published:

September3,2011

WASHINGTON—TheObamaadministrationhasinitiatedalast-ditchdiplomaticcampaigntoavertaconfrontationthismonthoveraplanby 

Palestinians 

toseekrecognitionasastateatthe 

UnitedNations,butitmayalreadybetoolate,accordingtoseniorAmericanofficialsandforeigndiplomats.

TheadministrationhascirculatedaproposalforrenewedpeacetalkswiththeIsraelisinthehopesofpersuadingthePalestinianpresident,MahmoudAbbas,toabandonthebidforrecognitionattheannualgatheringofworldleadersattheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblybeginningSept.20.

TheadministrationhasmadeitcleartoMr.AbbasthatitwillvetoanyrequestpresentedtotheUnitedNationsSecurityCounciltomakeaPalestinianstateanewmemberoutright.

ButtheUnitedStatesdoesnothaveenoughsupporttoblockavotebytheGeneralAssemblytoelevatethestatusofthePalestinians’nonvotingobserver“entity”tothatofanonvotingobserverstate.ThechangewouldpavethewayforthePalestinianstojoindozensofUnitedNationsbodiesandconventions,anditcouldstrengthentheirabilitytopursuecasesagainst 

Israel 

attheInternationalCriminalCourt.

SeniorofficialssaidtheadministrationwantedtoavoidnotonlyavetobutalsothemoresymbolicandpotentGeneralAssemblyvotethatwouldleavetheUnitedStatesandonlyahandfulofothernationsintheopposition.Theofficials,whospokeontheconditionofanonymitytodiscussdiplomaticmaneuverings,saidtheyfearedthatineithercaseawaveofangercouldsweepthePalestinianterritoriesandthewiderArabworldatatimewhentheregionisalreadyintumult.PresidentObamawouldbeputinthepositionofthreateningtovetorecognitionoftheaspirationsofmostPalestiniansorriskalienatingIsraelanditspoliticalsupportersintheUnitedStates.

“Ifyouputthealternativeoutthere,thenyou’vesuddenlyjustchangedthecircumstancesandchangedthedynamic,”asenioradministrationofficialinvolvedintheflurryofdiplomacysaidThursday.“Andthat’swhatwe’retryingverymuchtodo.”

EffortstoheadoffthePalestiniandiplomaticdrivehavepercolatedallsummerbuthavetakenonurgencyasthevoteloomsinthecomingweeks.“It’snotcleartomehowitcanbeavoidedatthemoment,”saidGhaithal-Omari,aformerPalestiniannegotiatorwhoisnowexecutivedirectoroftheAmericanTaskForceonPalestineinWashington.“AnAmericanvetocouldinflameemotionsandbringanti-Americansentimenttotheforefrontacrosstheregion.”

Whilesomeofficialsremainoptimisticthatacompromisecanbefound,theadministrationhassimultaneouslybegunplanningtolimitthefalloutofastatehoodvote.AprimaryfocusistoensuretheIsraelisandPalestinianscontinuetocooperateonsecuritymattersintheWestBankandalongIsrael’sborders,administrationofficialssaid.

“We’restillfocusedonPlanA,”anothersenioradministrationofficialsaid,referringtothediplomaticeffortsbytheadministration’snewspecialenvoy,DavidM.Hale,andthepresident’sMiddleEastadviserontheNationalSecurityCouncil,DennisB.Ross.Mr.HalereplacedthemoreprominentGeorgeJ.MitchellJr.,whoresignedinMayaftertwoyearsoffrustratedeffortstomakeprogressonapeacedeal.

TheStateDepartmentlatelastmonthissuedaformaldiplomaticmessagetomorethan70countriesurgingthemtoopposeanyunilateralmovesbythePalestiniansattheUnitedNations.Themessage,deliveredbyAmericanambassadorstotheirdiplomaticcounterpartsinthosecountries,arguedthatavotewoulddestabilizetheregionandunderminepeaceefforts,thoughthoseare,atleastfornow,moribund.

TwoadministrationofficialssaidthattheintentofthemessagewastonarrowthemajoritythePalestiniansareexpectedtohaveintheGeneralAssembly.Theysaidthatandthenewpeaceproposal—tobeissuedinastatementbytheQuartet,thediplomaticgroupfocusedontheMiddleEastcomprisingtheUnitedStates,Russia,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedNations—couldpersuadepotentialsupporterstostepbackfromavoteonrecognition,andthusforceMr.Abbastohavesecondthoughts.

“Thefactistherearecountrieswhowouldchoosenottodothatvoteiftherewasanalternative,”thefirstsenioradministrationofficialsaid.

Inessence,theadministrationistryingtotranslatethebroadprinciplesMr.ObamaoutlinedinMayintoaconcreteroadmapfortalksthatwouldsucceedwherepasteffortshavefailed:

satisfyIsrael,givethePalestiniansanalternativetogoingtotheUnitedNationsandwintheendorsementoftheEuropeans.

DiplomatsarelaboringtoformulatelanguagethatwouldbridgestubborndifferencesoverhowtotreatJewishsettlementsintheWestBank,andoverIsrael’sdemandforrecognitionofitsstatusasaJewishstate.AstatementbytheQuartetwouldbemorethanasymbolicgesture.ItwouldoutlineaseriesofmeetingsandactionstoresumetalkstocreateaPalestinianstate.

TheQuartet’smembersaredividedovertheproposal’stermsandcontinuetonegotiatethemamongthemselves,andwiththePalestiniansandIsraelis.

AmongtheissuesstillonthetablearehowexplicitlytoaccountforthegrowingsettlementsintheWestBank.ThequestionofIsrael’sstatusisalsoopposedbyRussiaandviewedwarilybysomeEuropeancountries.ThePalestinianshaveneveraccededtoaformalrecognitionofIsraelasaJewishstate,indeferenceatleastinparttothePalestinianswholiveinIsrael.

TheQuartet’senvoy,TonyBlair,theformerBritishprimeminister,visitedJerusalemonTuesdaytonegotiatethetermsoftheproposalwiththeIsraelis.HeisexpectedtodiscussitwiththePalestinianssoon.

TheIsraelishavesofarrespondedpositivelytothedraft,butthePalestinianpositionremainsunclear.

TwoadministrationofficialssaidthatMr.AbbashadrecentlyindicatedthathewouldforgoaUnitedNationsvoteinfavorofrealtalks.ButaseniorPalestinianofficial,NabilShaath,angrilydismissedtheAmericanproposalasinadequateandsaidavotewouldgoaheadregardless.

“Whoeverwrotethisthoughtwearesoweakthatwecannotevenwiggleorthatwearestupid,”hesaidinatelephoneinterviewfromRamallahintheWestBank.Headded,“Whateveristobeoffered,itistoolate.”

Withintheadministration,therearedifferentviewsofthesituation’surgency.SomeofficialsbelievethattheUnitedStatescanweatheravetodiplomatically,asithasbefore,andpoliticallyathomebecauseofthestrongsupportforIsraelinCongress.ButothersviewthePalestinianpushforrecognitionasdeeplyalarming,raisingthespecterofnewinstabilityandviolenceintheWestBankandGaza.

“ThemostpowerfulargumentisthatthiswillprovokeaPalestinianawakening,thattherewillbeanewviolenceandthatwe’llbeblamed,”saidMartinS.Indyk,aformerAmericanambassadortoIsrael.

RepublicanCandidatesTurnAttacksonOneAnother

Gov.RickPerryatahousepartyinManchester,N.H.,onSaturday.

JEFFZELENY

INDIANOLA,Iowa—Gov. 

RickPerry 

isprivatelybeingcoachedtocomeacrossasmorepresidential—cautiousinhiscomments,deliberateindefendinghisTexasrecord—whilebuildingonhisfaststartbytryingtoconsolidatesupportacrosstheRepublicanspectrum,fromthe 

TeaParty 

andevangelicalstothepartyestablishment.

FormerGov. 

MittRomney 

ofMassachusettsissteelingforalongandcombativefightfortheRepublicannomination,droppinghisfront-runner’sstrategyandpreparingtoconfrontMr.Perryon 

immigration,hisquarter-centuryingovernmentandhisclaimsofcreatingjobsinTexas.

Representative 

MicheleBachmann 

ofMinnesotaisworkingtoshatterthenotionthattheraceisbecomingatwo-personcontest,scalingbackhercampaignappearancestostudyMr.Perry’sspendingrecordinTexasinanefforttoraiseskepticismabouthiscandidacyamongTeaPartysupporters.

TheRepublicanfieldisenteringapivotalstageinthenominatingcontestascandidatesincreasinglymovebeyondcriticizing 

PresidentObama 

andstarttorunagainstoneanother.

Theoutcomeofthreedebatesinthenextthreeweeks—startingWednesdaynight,thefirsttimeMr.Perry,Mr.RomneyandMrs.Bachmannwillfaceoneanother—willinfluencefund-raising,shapestrategyandsetperceptionsasthecandidateshurtletowardthestartofvotingearlynextyear.

Inbothparties,thereisnowasensethatthepresident’spoliticalfrailty,underscoredbythereportonFridaythatshowedzeronetjobcreationinAugustandnewprojectionsthatunemploymentwillremainelevatedthroughElectionDaynextyear,isevengreaterthanitappearedatthestartofthesummer,injectingadditionalenergyandurgencyintotheRepublicanprimaryrace.

WhilemanyDemocratsoncehopedthatperceiveddeficienciesamongtheRepublicancontenderscouldprovidealifelinetoMr.Obama,theprospectoflosingthepresidencyisnolongersummarilydismissedbyhisadvisers.

Withsomuchatstake,thelineupofcandidatesremainsunsettled.SarahPalinsignaledduringaweekendswingthroughIowaandNewHampshirethatshemightstilljumpin,declaring,“There’sroomformore.”

InanappearancehereSaturdayafternoon,Ms.Palinmadeclearthatshehadnointentionsofsimplyfallinginlinebehindoneoftheparty’sleadingcandidates.SheurgedvoterstoscrutinizeRepublicancontenders,strikingapopulisttoneasshewarnedagainst“cronycapitalism”inbothparties.

“OurchallengeisnotjusttoreplaceObamain2012,”Ms.Palinsaid.“Buttherealchallengeiswhoandwhatwewillreplacehimwith?

”

Atthesametime,thererem