《商务统计》（英文版）全套课件253P.pptx

1、,Business StatisticsBEO 1106,BEO1106-Week 1,1,WEEK 1INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS PRESENTATION OF DATAReference:Selvanathan et al.(2004),Chapters 1,2,SUBJECT INFORMATION,found,workshop material,the assignment and practice questions can be and downloaded from the subject web page on Central Point:,http:

2、/www.business.vu.edu.au/beo1106,No hard copies of any material will be provided or sold.Other relevant information and important messages from the subject co-ordinator willbe posted during the semester on this web page.,BEO1106-Week 1,2,Aim:This subject is an introduction to the basic statistical te

3、chniques necessary to describe and analyze business and economic data.Its focus is on sound managerial decision making in business.Subject Information:The subject guide,lecture slides,tutorial and,Text:,Selvanathan,A et al.(2004):Australian Business Statistics,3rd edition(Abridged),Nelson.,Assessmen

4、t:Test/Case Study(in week 6 tutorials,closed book)Assignment(in groups of 2 students)Examination(3 hours,multiple choice,open book),BEO1106-Week 1,3,20%20%60%Total100%,To pass this subject you must complete each of the above assessments,obtain at least 30 out of 60 in the examinationand obtain at le

5、ast 50 out of 100 in total.To obtain a satisfactory mark in this subject you should attend:Lectures:2 hoursTutorials:1 hourWorkshops:1 hour(Optional)and devote about 6 hours a week to independent learning,whichshould include revising lecture material,reading the chapters of the text book,attempting

6、recommended questions and completing assignment tasks each week.,Statistical software:Micro-Soft Excel.During tutorial computer lab classes you will be given instructions on using MS Excel for statistical analysis.If you wish to use MS Excel at home for your assignment tasks,you must install the Dat

7、a Analysis Plus add-in which is supplied with the textbook.Calculator:A calculator is essential for this subject.You are permitted to take to the exam any hand held scientific,statistical or graphics calculator.Subject Coordinator:Hubert FernandoOffice Location:A534 Footscray Park Campus,E-mail:Hube

8、rt.Fernandovu.edu.auTelephone:9919 4575Tutorial times:After week-2 for all inquiries relating to tutorial times,contact:Ms Mira Machut,Footscray Park Campus,A543,BEO1106-Week 1,4,nMajor topics:1)Descriptive Methods,BEO1106-Week 1,5,Tabular,graphical and numerical summaries.,2)Probability Theory,How

9、to measure what is probable?,data,6)Regression and Correlation,How to determine the relationship between variables?,BUSINESS STATISTICS,3)Probability Distributions,Binomial and Normal probabilities.,Sampling TheorySampling Distributions.Estimation and Hypothesis TestingMaking inferences about popula

10、tions using sample,Time series analysis and Forecasting Time related data analysisIndex Numbers Time related data,relative to a point in time.,STATISTICAL METHODS,BEO1106-Week 1,6,Two basic categoriesn1)Descriptive StatisticsMethods used to summarize the masses of data available to us,so thatwe can

11、easily and clearly see the overall picture.Eg.Tabular,graphical and numerical summaries.2)Inferential StatisticsMethods which facilitate the making of generalizations(i.e.inferences)about population characteristics from information obtained from a sample.Eg.Estimating the average income of all Austr

12、alian households by surveying a small number of households from around the country.,STATISTICAL TERMS,BEO1106-Week 1,7,Data:Individual pieces of information.e.g.the number of BEO1106 students in semester 1,2005 at VU.Many students,Many characteristics(e.g.age,income,gender)Census:A complete survey c

13、arried out on population data.Population:The complete set of items/data that are of interest in a statistical investigation.(Eg.the ages of all BEO1106 students at VU)Must state 1.Population item 2.Boundary 3.Characteristic of interest.Sample:A small subset of the population.(Eg.the ages of BEO1106

14、students in tutorial group 1.)Parameter:A numerical summary measure of a population.(Eg.average age of all BEO1106 students.)Statistic:A numerical summary measure of a sample.(Eg.average age of the students in tutorial group 1.),Ex 1:(Selvanathan,p.8,ex.1.3(2000 edition p.7,ex.1.3)A coucillor who is

15、 running for the office of mayor of a city with 25 000 registered voters commissions a survey.In the survey,48%of the 200 registered voters interviewed say they planned to vote for her.,BEO1106-Week 1,8,a),What is the population of interest?The intentions of the 25 000 registered voters to vote for

16、her or not.,b),What is the sample?The intentions of the 200 selected registered voters.,c),Is the value 48%a parameter or a statistic?It is a statistic,since it refers to the proportion of registered voters in the sample who intend to vote for this politician.,Ex 2:(Selvanathan,p.8,ex.1.6(2000 editi

17、on p.7,ex.1.6)You are shown a coin that its owner says is fair in the sense that it will produce the same number of heads and tails when flipped repeatedly.,BEO1106-Week 1,9,a),Describe an experiment to test this claim.Flip the coin,e.g.30 times,and observe the outcomes(H or T).The claim is false,if

18、 H(or T)is not produced exactly 50%of the trials.,b),What is the population in your experiment?The set of outcomes(H or T)of large number(e.g.10 000)of possible,trials.,c),What is the sample?The set of outcomes(H or T)of the 30 trials actually performed.,d),What is the parameter?The proportion of H(

19、or T)in the population.,e),What is the statistic?The proportion of H(or T)in the sample.,TYPES OF DATA,BEO1106-Week 1,10,Qualitative:Data which indicate the category or group that an object or item is in.Not measurable(e.g.gender of students).These are nominal qualitative data.Occasionally the categ

20、ories can be ranked(eg.BBus,Hon,Mas,Phd).These are ordinal data.,Quantitative:,Data which arise from a counting or measuring activity.Numerical observations,(e.g.exam results).,Data measured in real numbers are interval data.Discrete quantitative:Data measured in whole numbers.The possible values ca

21、n be listed and counted.(eg.number ofstudents in different tutorial classes).Continuous quantitative:(e.g.height,length,duration,volume).Data can assume an infinite set of values within a given interval.Eg.2.5 is within the interval 2.49and 2.51.So are 2.501 and 2.5011.The possiblevalues are too man

22、y to be listed or counted,hence the term continuous.Basic arithmetic operations(+,x,)make sense.,Ex 3:(Selvanathan,p.23,ex.2.4(2000 edition p.16,ex.2.4)Information concerning a magazines readership is of interest both to the publisher and to the magazines advertisers.A survey of 20 subscribers inclu

23、ded the following questions.For each,determine the data type of possible responses.,BEO1106-Week 1,11,a),b),c),e),d),What is your age?Quantitative,theoretically continuous,but discrete in practice.What is your sex?Qualitative.What is your marital status?Qualitative.Is your annual income less than$20

24、 000,between$20 000 and 40 000,or over$40 000?Qualitative,ranked.How many other magazines do you subscribe to?Quantitative,discrete.,Data can also be classified as,BEO1106-Week 1,12,Cross-sectional data:All observations are collected at a single point in time,but they represent different entities.(E

25、.g.GDPs of OECD countries in 2000.)Time-series data:The observations are collected at regular intervals of time,but they represent a single entity.(E.g.GDP of Australia from 1960 to 2000.)Statistical data is usually stored in a computer file(eg.spreadsheets).Case:All responses from a person in a sam

26、ple or census.nEach row in the spreadsheet is a case.(E.g.The answers to all questions on a questionnaire filled in by one respondent.)Variable:All responses to a particular question in a sample or census.Each column in the spreadsheet is a variable.(E.g.The answers to a particular question on a que

27、stionnaire filled in by all respondents),Example:The Research and Development Unit of the Usuallyready battery,company h determine,as recently developed a new type of six volt battery.In order to whether this new battery has a longer length of life than the normal,six volt cell,a sample of 200 of th

28、e new batteries is installed in a test grid and their lengths of life recorded.sample size,n=200variable XRaw data lifetimes of 200 six volt batteries(hours)x1 x2,BEO1106-Week 1,13,x20,DESCRIPTIVE,Summarising Qua,METHODSntitative Data,the form of a table orbatteries,Frequency distribution,from 13 up

29、 to,but not including,14,Histogram:a graphical presentation of a(relative)frequency distribution.Each class is illustrated with a rectangle;The base of the rectangle corresponds to the class interval;The height of the rectangle is proportional to the corresponding frequency.,BEO1106-Week 1,14,Graphi

30、cal summary lifetimes for 200 six volt batteriesHistogram,BEO1106-Week 1,15,Ex 4:,What was the average annual family income in Victoria in year 2000?,Population:annual incomes of all families living in Victoria in 2000.About 1 million families.Survey a random sample of 5000 Victorian families and re

31、quest their average family income in 2000.Lets suppose that 4500 families return the questionary.,BEO1106-Week 1,16,In order to make easi,er to interpret this list we can rank the observations.,Ordered array:a list of the observations in ascending or descending order.,(Ex 4)4500 valid data in ascend

32、ing order,smallest,largest,BEO1106-Week 1,17,Range:,largest smallest i.e.113 26=87,Frequency distribution:,BEO1106-Week 1,18,a table that groups the data into class intervals(or categories)and records thecorresponding number of observations,i.e.frequencies.,This table is still too big and confusing.

33、In order to acquire more information,we can construct a summary table,i.e.a frequency distribution,a relative frequency distribution or a cumulative(relative)frequency distribution.,Relative frequency:,the proportion of all observations in a given class interval(often in percentage form).,Cumulative(relative)frequency:the sum of(relative)frequencies from the first class through a given class.,How