《商务统计》（英文版）全套课件253P.pptx

《商务统计》（英文版）全套课件253P.pptx

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,BusinessStatisticsBEO1106,BEO1106-Week1,1,WEEK1INTRODUCTIONTOSTATISTICSPRESENTATIONOFDATAReference:

Selvanathanetal.（2004）,Chapters1,2,SUBJECTINFORMATION,found,workshopmaterial,theassignmentandpracticequestionscanbeanddownloadedfromthesubjectwebpageonCentralPoint:

http:

/www.business.vu.edu.au/beo1106,Nohardcopiesofanymaterialwillbeprovidedorsold.Otherrelevantinformationandimportantmessagesfromthesubjectco-ordinatorwillbepostedduringthesemesteronthiswebpage.,BEO1106-Week1,2,Aim:

Thissubjectisanintroductiontothebasicstatisticaltechniquesnecessarytodescribeandanalyzebusinessandeconomicdata.Itsfocusisonsoundmanagerialdecisionmakinginbusiness.SubjectInformation:

Thesubjectguide,lectureslides,tutorialand,Text:

Selvanathan,Aetal.（2004）:

AustralianBusinessStatistics,3rdedition（Abridged）,Nelson.,Assessment:

Test/CaseStudy（inweek6tutorials,closedbook）Assignment（ingroupsof2students）Examination（3hours,multiplechoice,openbook）,BEO1106-Week1,3,20%20%60%Total100%,Topassthissubjectyoumustcompleteeachoftheaboveassessments,obtainatleast30outof60intheexaminationandobtainatleast50outof100intotal.Toobtainasatisfactorymarkinthissubjectyoushouldattend:

Lectures:

2hoursTutorials:

1hourWorkshops:

1hour（Optional）anddevoteabout6hoursaweektoindependentlearning,whichshouldincluderevisinglecturematerial,readingthechaptersofthetextbook,attemptingrecommendedquestionsandcompletingassignmenttaskseachweek.,Statisticalsoftware:

Micro-SoftExcel.DuringtutorialcomputerlabclassesyouwillbegiveninstructionsonusingMSExcelforstatisticalanalysis.IfyouwishtouseMSExcelathomeforyourassignmenttasks,youmustinstalltheDataAnalysisPlusadd-inwhichissuppliedwiththetextbook.Calculator:

Acalculatorisessentialforthissubject.Youarepermittedtotaketotheexamanyhandheldscientific,statisticalorgraphicscalculator.SubjectCoordinator:

HubertFernandoOfficeLocation:

A534FootscrayParkCampus,E-mail:

Hubert.Fernandovu.edu.auTelephone:

99194575Tutorialtimes:

Afterweek-2forallinquiriesrelatingtotutorialtimes,contact:

MsMiraMachut,FootscrayParkCampus,A543,BEO1106-Week1,4,nMajortopics:

1）DescriptiveMethods,BEO1106-Week1,5,Tabular,graphicalandnumericalsummaries.,2）ProbabilityTheory,Howtomeasurewhatisprobable?

data,6）RegressionandCorrelation,Howtodeterminetherelationshipbetweenvariables?

BUSINESSSTATISTICS,3）ProbabilityDistributions,BinomialandNormalprobabilities.,SamplingTheorySamplingDistributions.EstimationandHypothesisTestingMakinginferencesaboutpopulationsusingsample,TimeseriesanalysisandForecastingTimerelateddataanalysisIndexNumbersTimerelateddata,relativetoapointintime.,STATISTICALMETHODS,BEO1106-Week1,6,Twobasiccategoriesn1）DescriptiveStatisticsMethodsusedtosummarizethemassesofdataavailabletous,sothatwecaneasilyandclearlyseetheoverallpicture.Eg.Tabular,graphicalandnumericalsummaries.2）InferentialStatisticsMethodswhichfacilitatethemakingofgeneralizations（i.e.inferences）aboutpopulationcharacteristicsfrominformationobtainedfromasample.Eg.EstimatingtheaverageincomeofallAustralianhouseholdsbysurveyingasmallnumberofhouseholdsfromaroundthecountry.,STATISTICALTERMS,BEO1106-Week1,7,Data:

Individualpiecesofinformation.e.g.thenumberofBEO1106studentsinsemester1,2005atVU.Manystudents,Manycharacteristics（e.g.age,income,gender）Census:

Acompletesurveycarriedoutonpopulationdata.Population:

Thecompletesetofitems/datathatareofinterestinastatisticalinvestigation.（Eg.theagesofallBEO1106studentsatVU）Muststate1.Populationitem2.Boundary3.Characteristicofinterest.Sample:

Asmallsubsetofthepopulation.（Eg.theagesofBEO1106studentsintutorialgroup1.）Parameter:

Anumericalsummarymeasureofapopulation.（Eg.averageageofallBEO1106students.）Statistic:

Anumericalsummarymeasureofasample.（Eg.averageageofthestudentsintutorialgroup1.）,Ex1:

（Selvanathan,p.8,ex.1.3（2000editionp.7,ex.1.3）Acoucillorwhoisrunningfortheofficeofmayorofacitywith25000registeredvoterscommissionsasurvey.Inthesurvey,48%ofthe200registeredvotersinterviewedsaytheyplannedtovoteforher.,BEO1106-Week1,8,a）,Whatisthepopulationofinterest?

Theintentionsofthe25000registeredvoterstovoteforherornot.,b）,Whatisthesample?

Theintentionsofthe200selectedregisteredvoters.,c）,Isthevalue48%aparameterorastatistic?

Itisastatistic,sinceitreferstotheproportionofregisteredvotersinthesamplewhointendtovoteforthispolitician.,Ex2:

（Selvanathan,p.8,ex.1.6（2000editionp.7,ex.1.6）Youareshownacointhatitsownersaysisfairinthesensethatitwillproducethesamenumberofheadsandtailswhenflippedrepeatedly.,BEO1106-Week1,9,a）,Describeanexperimenttotestthisclaim.Flipthecoin,e.g.30times,andobservetheoutcomes（HorT）.Theclaimisfalse,ifH（orT）isnotproducedexactly50%ofthetrials.,b）,Whatisthepopulationinyourexperiment?

Thesetofoutcomes（HorT）oflargenumber（e.g.10000）ofpossible,trials.,c）,Whatisthesample?

Thesetofoutcomes（HorT）ofthe30trialsactuallyperformed.,d）,Whatistheparameter?

TheproportionofH（orT）inthepopulation.,e）,Whatisthestatistic?

TheproportionofH（orT）inthesample.,TYPESOFDATA,BEO1106-Week1,10,Qualitative:

Datawhichindicatethecategoryorgroupthatanobjectoritemisin.Notmeasurable（e.g.genderofstudents）.Thesearenominalqualitativedata.Occasionallythecategoriescanberanked（eg.BBus,Hon,Mas,Phd）.Theseareordinaldata.,Quantitative:

Datawhicharisefromacountingormeasuringactivity.Numericalobservations,（e.g.examresults）.,Datameasuredinrealnumbersareintervaldata.Discretequantitative:

Datameasuredinwholenumbers.Thepossiblevaluescanbelistedandcounted.（eg.numberofstudentsindifferenttutorialclasses）.Continuousquantitative:

（e.g.height,length,duration,volume）.Datacanassumeaninfinitesetofvalueswithinagiveninterval.Eg.2.5iswithintheinterval2.49and2.51.Soare2.501and2.5011.Thepossiblevaluesaretoomanytobelistedorcounted,hencethetermcontinuous.Basicarithmeticoperations（+,x,）makesense.,Ex3:

（Selvanathan,p.23,ex.2.4（2000editionp.16,ex.2.4）Informationconcerningamagazinesreadershipisofinterestbothtothepublisherandtothemagazinesadvertisers.Asurveyof20subscribersincludedthefollowingquestions.Foreach,determinethedatatypeofpossibleresponses.,BEO1106-Week1,11,a）,b）,c）,e）,d）,Whatisyourage?

Quantitative,theoreticallycontinuous,butdiscreteinpractice.Whatisyoursex?

Qualitative.Whatisyourmaritalstatus?

Qualitative.Isyourannualincomelessthan$20000,between$20000and40000,orover$40000?

Qualitative,ranked.Howmanyothermagazinesdoyousubscribeto?

Quantitative,discrete.,Datacanalsobeclassifiedas,BEO1106-Week1,12,Cross-sectionaldata:

Allobservationsarecollectedatasinglepointintime,buttheyrepresentdifferententities.（E.g.GDPsofOECDcountriesin2000.）Time-seriesdata:

Theobservationsarecollectedatregularintervalsoftime,buttheyrepresentasingleentity.（E.g.GDPofAustraliafrom1960to2000.）Statisticaldataisusuallystoredinacomputerfile（eg.spreadsheets）.Case:

Allresponsesfromapersoninasampleorcensus.nEachrowinthespreadsheetisacase.（E.g.Theanswerstoallquestionsonaquestionnairefilledinbyonerespondent.）Variable:

Allresponsestoaparticularquestioninasampleorcensus.Eachcolumninthespreadsheetisavariable.（E.g.Theanswerstoaparticularquestiononaquestionnairefilledinbyallrespondents）,Example:

TheResearchandDevelopmentUnitoftheUsuallyreadybattery,companyhdetermine,asrecentlydevelopedanewtypeofsixvoltbattery.Inordertowhetherthisnewbatteryhasalongerlengthoflifethanthenormal,sixvoltcell,asampleof200ofthenewbatteriesisinstalledinatestgridandtheirlengthsofliferecorded.samplesize,n=200variableXRawdatalifetimesof200sixvoltbatteries（hours）x1x2,BEO1106-Week1,13,x20,DESCRIPTIVE,SummarisingQua,METHODSntitativeData,theformofatableorbatteries,Frequencydistribution,from13upto,butnotincluding,14,Histogram:

agraphicalpresentationofa（relative）frequencydistribution.Eachclassisillustratedwitharectangle;Thebaseoftherectanglecorrespondstotheclassinterval;Theheightoftherectangleisproportionaltothecorrespondingfrequency.,BEO1106-Week1,14,Graphicalsummarylifetimesfor200sixvoltbatteriesHistogram,BEO1106-Week1,15,Ex4:

WhatwastheaverageannualfamilyincomeinVictoriainyear2000?

Population:

annualincomesofallfamilieslivinginVictoriain2000.About1millionfamilies.Surveyarandomsampleof5000Victorianfamiliesandrequesttheiraveragefamilyincomein2000.Letssupposethat4500familiesreturnthequestionary.,BEO1106-Week1,16,Inordertomakeeasi,ertointerpretthislistwecanranktheobservations.,Orderedarray:

alistoftheobservationsinascendingordescendingorder.,（Ex4）4500validdatainascendingorder,smallest,largest,BEO1106-Week1,17,Range:

largestsmallesti.e.11326=87,Frequencydistribution:

BEO1106-Week1,18,atablethatgroupsthedataintoclassintervals（orcategories）andrecordsthecorrespondingnumberofobservations,i.e.frequencies.,Thistableisstilltoobigandconfusing.Inordertoacquiremoreinformation,wecanconstructasummarytable,i.e.afrequencydistribution,arelativefrequencydistributionoracumulative（relative）frequencydistribution.,Relativefrequency:

theproportionofallobservationsinagivenclassinterval（ofteninpercentageform）.,Cumulative（relative）frequency:

thesumof（relative）frequenciesfromthefirstclassthroughagivenclass.,How