张聪排版 学习指南模板英文.docx

1、张聪排版 学习指南模板英文Data, Model and Decision Tongji University, School of Economics & Management, MBAThe materials in this course were prepared by Data, Model and Decision Research Group, School of Economics & Management.ContentsIntroduction to Data, Model and Decision Background of the Teaching Staff Syll

2、abus Data, Model and Decision: Supporting Materials & Activities Assessment Chapter1: Statistical data acquisition Chapter 2: Arrangement and Description of Data Chapter 3: Probability and decision theory Chapter 4: Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Chapter 5: Analysis of Variance Chapter

3、6 Correlation and regression analysis Chapter 7: Time-series Forecasting Chapter 8: linear programming Introduction to Data, Model and DecisionThis course is a core curriculum of MBA, mainly includes two parts, Statistics and Operations Research. Question guiding will be as the teaching method.Based

4、 on clarifying basic principles, this course emphasizes case study and the application of computer software.Statistics mainly teaches data collection and data processing method, including sampling methods, sampling distribution, parameter estimation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, analysi

5、s of variance and regression analysis.Operations Research mainly teaches linear programming, including linear programming model, use of software to solve the model.This course aims to let students understand and master the basic principles and method of data, models and decision-making, master its w

6、ide application in management decision and develop the ability of application analysis with computer quantitative analysis software to adapt to a high degree of uncertainty in the external environment caused by economic globalization and the need for rapid development of information technology.To ra

7、ise their scientific analysis, risk and optimize decision-making ability,and help every student to become a qualified management personnel in the future. Mastering this course knowledge and skills in software, not only have great help in graduation thesis, but also greatly enhance the research capac

8、ity.And it will benefit the improvement of academic standards and future career development.To understand the basic principle and method of Statistics and linear programming.To solve all sorts problems about quantitative analysis skillfully with computer software, and analyze and solve practical pro

9、blems of enterprise by knowledge.Before class, students should preview carefully, read textbooks and reference specified in the course outline, and complete group discussion report.After class, students should finish the homework and computer experiment content on time, prepare group discussion case

10、s carefully and participate in the case discussion actively.Data, Model and Decision: Supporting Materials & ActivitiesCore Text:(1) Sun Changyan, Chen Weizhong: Method of Quantitative Analysis in Business Administration, Tongji University Press, 2003（The book is Chinese version）(2) Anderson, etc.:

11、Statistics for Business and Economic (English version&the 9th version), Mechanical Industry Press, 2010Other Texts:(1) Douglas A.Lind, etc: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics,Zhongxin Press(2) Jon Curwin，Roger Slater：Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions (the 4th version). Northe

12、ast Finance University Press,1998(3) David M.levine,Zhang Jiantong(translator),etc: Excel as a decision-making tools to Business Statistics, Mechanical Industry Press ,2009(4) David M.Levine, Timothy C.Krehbiel: Business Statistics(English version&the 5th version), China Renmin University Press,2010

13、(5) James. R. Evans,Du Benfeng(translator)etc: Data Model and Decision-making(With CD& the 2th version) ,China Renmin University Press,2008Website:Case Materials:(1) A new washing machine investment and production decision-making case(2) PCB manufacturing company(3) Canada WorldCom: if it doesnt sno

14、w without paying.(4) Douglas Company(5) Round-trip Flight of United Airlines(6) Application cases about quality control(7) Alfonso department stores(8) The fuel management of Duomilien steel plant(9) The new feed supply companies in England (10) The production plan optimization of a metal factory (1

15、1) The descriptive analysis of profitability for SSE50 constituents ；(12) Quality Associates, Inc.(13) Compensation for ID Professionals(14) Forcasting Food and Beverage Sales(15) Chateau Macquin STGeorges Winery (CMS)(16) Red Brand CannersChapter1: Statistical data acquisition Learning objectives:

16、In this chapter, youll learn: How to apply statistics to business How to collect business data The questionnaire and questionnaire design Types of data in business1.1 An Overview of StatisticsAll aspects of human activity are inseparable from the statistical work and statistical data. In personal li

17、fe, people are dependent on any decision about the statistical information. It is inseparable from the relevant statistical information, no matter applying for schools, choosing jobs, trading stocks, traveling, or buying daily articles, doing expenses budget etc. Many statistical information in pers

18、onal life is in a very simple rough form, however, people can make the correct judgment and decision only on the basis of the comprehensive information acquired by experience or what happened in the past. In government level, statistics also permeates the administration work of each department. Thro

19、ugh continually collecting statistical data in the fields of economy, society, population etc, government forecasts, plans, guides and regulates the development of national economy and provides various statistical information to the whole society on the basis of comprehensive analysis. In scientific

20、 and research fields, including science, economics and sociology, sports, medical and health, environmental protection, and other fields, it is widely used to apply statistical methods to analyze and inference.In business activities, statistics have more applications. Managers need to use statistica

21、l methods to conclude and analyze any obtainable statistical material while making decisions. The statistical methods often used in business activities can separated as the following aspects.1. Financial analysisFinancial reports of enterprises and financial analysis indexes are statistical analysis

22、 results of financial and operational status. Applications of many accounting methods need statistical analysis results of operating performance on the basis of costs and benefits. Whats more, enterprise cannot make investment and financing decisions without the support of various internal and exter

23、nal statistical information.2. Product developmentWhile making products development plans, enterprises need to make statistical analysis of economic development trend, commercial competition, customer demand, financial revenues and expenditures estimation, and conduct economic feasibility analysis o

24、n this basis.3. PlanWhile making all sorts of plan, enterprises need to forecast such factors as sales, capital, human resource needs, costs and profits. Forecasting is the estimation of the future by the way of statistical inference on the basis of past and current statistics.4. Marketing researchM

25、anagers need to make statistical data analysis for consumer demand preference and tendency, information of competitors and customer satisfaction of products and services.5. Work procedure management & Quality controlBy using statistical analysis method, it can help to define the main factors affecti

26、ng product quality and make effective quality control standard and process specifications, in order to reduce costs and improve production efficiency. Quality control and quality management are the most general applications of statistical analysis in business management.6. Human resource managementI

27、n human resources management, managers often need often use statistical methods to analyze turnover, attendance situation, work performance, etc., and make performance appraisal, rewards and punishment, and effective incentive and restrictive mechanism on this basis.1.2 Data collectionStatistical da

28、ta collection is statistics collection and analysis, and the basis of statistical inference and prediction. Statistical data collection is a organized and designed process of collecting original materials form investigation objects according to the statistical research purpose and requirements. It i

29、s a very important task to determine the most suitable data source and reasonable data collection method. Because if the collected data has deviation, even the most sophisticated statistical methods cannot get useful information, that is to say, we need to try to avoid statistical applications such

30、as “Garbage In Garbage Out”.In practical application, according to the specific research purpose or tasks, we should choose suitable survey methods combined with the characteristic and nature of the research object. When necessary, we may also use a combination of several survey methods. We ll intro

31、duce several usual survey methods, including: the general survey, major survey and typical survey, sampleing survey and online survey.General surveyThe general survey referred census, is special organized one-time comprehensive investigation. Such as the national census, energy census, industrial ce

32、nsus etc. The census is generally organized in two ways: one is to establish specialized census institutions, equipped with a lot of investigators, the other is to use original records and accounting information, issuing questionnaires filled by the registration units. While conducting a general survey, we have to pay special attention to the following principles. (1) Regulated uniform standard date. It refers that all the