张聪排版 学习指南模板英文.docx

张聪排版 学习指南模板英文.docx

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张聪排版学习指南模板英文

Data,ModelandDecision

TongjiUniversity,SchoolofEconomics&Management,MBA

ThematerialsinthiscoursewerepreparedbyData,ModelandDecisionResearchGroup,SchoolofEconomics&Management.

Contents

IntroductiontoData,ModelandDecision３

BackgroundoftheTeachingStaff４

Syllabus６

Data,ModelandDecision:

７

SupportingMaterials&Activities７

Assessment９

Chapter1:

Statisticaldataacquisition１０

Chapter2:

ArrangementandDescriptionofData１６

Chapter3:

Probabilityanddecisiontheory２３

Chapter4:

ParameterEstimationandHypothesisTesting２８

Chapter5:

AnalysisofVariance３２

Chapter6Correlationandregressionanalysis４０

Chapter7:

Time-seriesForecasting５０

Chapter8:

linearprogramming５９

IntroductiontoData,ModelandDecision

ThiscourseisacorecurriculumofMBA,mainlyincludestwoparts,StatisticsandOperationsResearch.Questionguidingwillbeastheteachingmethod.Basedonclarifyingbasicprinciples,thiscourseemphasizescasestudyandtheapplicationofcomputersoftware.

Statisticsmainlyteachesdatacollectionanddataprocessingmethod,includingsamplingmethods,samplingdistribution,parameterestimation,confidenceintervals,hypothesistesting,analysisofvarianceandregressionanalysis.

OperationsResearchmainlyteacheslinearprogramming,includinglinearprogrammingmodel,useofsoftwaretosolvethemodel.

Thiscourseaimstoletstudentsunderstandandmasterthebasicprinciplesandmethodofdata,modelsanddecision-making,masteritswideapplicationinmanagementdecisionanddeveloptheabilityofapplicationanalysiswithcomputerquantitativeanalysissoftwaretoadapttoahighdegreeofuncertaintyintheexternalenvironmentcausedbyeconomicglobalizationandtheneedforrapiddevelopmentofinformationtechnology.

Toraisetheirscientificanalysis,riskandoptimizedecision-makingability,andhelpeverystudenttobecomeaqualifiedmanagementpersonnelinthefuture.

Masteringthiscourseknowledgeandskillsinsoftware,notonlyhavegreathelpingraduationthesis,butalsogreatlyenhancetheresearchcapacity.Anditwillbenefittheimprovementofacademicstandardsandfuturecareerdevelopment.

TounderstandthebasicprincipleandmethodofStatisticsandlinearprogramming.Tosolveallsortsproblemsaboutquantitativeanalysisskillfullywithcomputersoftware,andanalyzeandsolvepracticalproblemsofenterprisebyknowledge.

Beforeclass,studentsshouldpreviewcarefully,readtextbooksandreferencespecifiedinthecourseoutline,andcompletegroupdiscussionreport.

Afterclass,studentsshouldfinishthehomeworkandcomputerexperimentcontentontime,preparegroupdiscussioncasescarefullyandparticipateinthecasediscussionactively.

Data,ModelandDecision:

SupportingMaterials&Activities

CoreText:

（1）SunChangyan,ChenWeizhong:

MethodofQuantitativeAnalysisinBusinessAdministration,TongjiUniversityPress,2003（ThebookisChineseversion）

（2）Anderson,etc.:

StatisticsforBusinessandEconomic（Englishversion&the9thversion）,MechanicalIndustryPress,2010

OtherTexts:

（1）DouglasA.Lind,etc:

StatisticalTechniquesinBusinessandEconomics,ZhongxinPress

（2）JonCurwin，RogerSlater：

QuantitativeMethodsforBusinessDecisions（the4thversion）.NortheastFinanceUniversityPress,1998

（3）DavidM.levine,ZhangJiantong（translator）,etc:

Excelasadecision-makingtoolstoBusinessStatistics,MechanicalIndustryPress,2009

（4）DavidM.Levine,TimothyC.Krehbiel:

BusinessStatistics（Englishversion&the5thversion）,ChinaRenminUniversityPress,2010

（5）James.R.Evans,DuBenfeng（translator）etc:

DataModelandDecision-making（WithCD&the2thversion）,ChinaRenminUniversityPress,2008

Website:

CaseMaterials:

（1）Anewwashingmachineinvestmentandproductiondecision-makingcase

（2）PCBmanufacturingcompany

（3）CanadaWorldCom:

"ifitdoesn'tsnowwithoutpaying."

（4）DouglasCompany

（5）Round-tripFlightofUnitedAirlines

（6）Applicationcasesaboutqualitycontrol

（7）Alfonsodepartmentstores

（8）ThefuelmanagementofDuomiliensteelplant

（9）ThenewfeedsupplycompaniesinEngland

（10）Theproductionplanoptimizationofametalfactory

（11）ThedescriptiveanalysisofprofitabilityforSSE50constituents；

（12）QualityAssociates,Inc.

（13）CompensationforIDProfessionals

（14）ForcastingFoodandBeverageSales

（15）ChateauMacquinSTGeorgesWinery（CMS）

（16）RedBrandCanners

Chapter1:

Statisticaldataacquisition

Learningobjectives:

Inthischapter,you’lllearn:

●Howtoapplystatisticstobusiness

●Howtocollectbusinessdata

●Thequestionnaireandquestionnairedesign

●Typesofdatainbusiness

1.1AnOverviewofStatistics

Allaspectsofhumanactivityareinseparablefromthestatisticalworkandstatisticaldata.Inpersonallife,peoplearedependentonanydecisionaboutthestatisticalinformation.Itisinseparablefromtherelevantstatisticalinformation,nomatterapplyingforschools,choosingjobs,tradingstocks,traveling,orbuyingdailyarticles,doingexpensesbudgetetc.Manystatisticalinformationinpersonallife'isinaverysimpleroughform,however,peoplecanmakethecorrectjudgmentanddecisiononlyonthebasisofthecomprehensiveinformationacquiredbyexperienceorwhathappenedinthepast.

Ingovernmentlevel,statisticsalsopermeatestheadministrationworkofeachdepartment.Throughcontinuallycollectingstatisticaldatainthefieldsofeconomy,society,populationetc,governmentforecasts,plans,guidesandregulatesthedevelopmentofnationaleconomyandprovidesvariousstatisticalinformationtothewholesocietyonthebasisofcomprehensiveanalysis.Inscientificandresearchfields,includingscience,economicsandsociology,sports,medicalandhealth,environmentalprotection,andotherfields,itiswidelyusedtoapplystatisticalmethodstoanalyzeandinference.

Inbusinessactivities,statisticshavemoreapplications.Managersneedtousestatisticalmethodstoconcludeandanalyzeanyobtainablestatisticalmaterialwhilemakingdecisions.Thestatisticalmethodsoftenusedinbusinessactivitiescanseparatedasthefollowingaspects.

1.Financialanalysis

Financialreportsofenterprisesandfinancialanalysisindexesarestatisticalanalysisresultsoffinancialandoperationalstatus.Applicationsofmanyaccountingmethodsneedstatisticalanalysisresultsofoperatingperformanceonthebasisofcostsandbenefits.What’smore,enterprisecannotmakeinvestmentandfinancingdecisionswithoutthesupportofvariousinternalandexternalstatisticalinformation.

2.Productdevelopment

Whilemakingproductsdevelopmentplans,enterprisesneedtomakestatisticalanalysisofeconomicdevelopmenttrend,commercialcompetition,customerdemand,financialrevenuesandexpendituresestimation,andconducteconomicfeasibilityanalysisonthisbasis.

3.Plan

Whilemakingallsortsofplan,enterprisesneedtoforecastsuchfactorsassales,capital,humanresourceneeds,costsandprofits.Forecastingistheestimationofthefuturebythewayofstatisticalinferenceonthebasisofpastandcurrentstatistics.

4.Marketingresearch

Managersneedtomakestatisticaldataanalysisforconsumerdemandpreferenceandtendency,informationofcompetitorsandcustomersatisfactionofproductsandservices.

5.Workproceduremanagement&Qualitycontrol

Byusingstatisticalanalysismethod,itcanhelptodefinethemainfactorsaffectingproductqualityandmakeeffectivequalitycontrolstandardandprocessspecifications,inordertoreducecostsandimproveproductionefficiency.Qualitycontrolandqualitymanagementarethemostgeneralapplicationsofstatisticalanalysisinbusinessmanagement.

6.Humanresourcemanagement

Inhumanresourcesmanagement,managersoftenneedoftenusestatisticalmethodstoanalyzeturnover,attendancesituation,workperformance,etc.,andmakeperformanceappraisal,rewardsandpunishment,andeffectiveincentiveandrestrictivemechanismonthisbasis.

1.2Datacollection

Statisticaldatacollectionisstatisticscollectionandanalysis,andthebasisofstatisticalinferenceandprediction.Statisticaldatacollectionisaorganizedanddesignedprocessofcollectingoriginalmaterialsforminvestigationobjectsaccordingtothestatisticalresearchpurposeandrequirements.Itisaveryimportanttasktodeterminethemostsuitabledatasourceandreasonabledatacollectionmethod.Becauseifthecollecteddatahasdeviation,eventhemostsophisticatedstatisticalmethodscannotgetusefulinformation,thatistosay,weneedtotrytoavoidstatisticalapplicationssuchas“GarbageInGarbageOut”.

Inpracticalapplication,accordingtothespecificresearchpurposeortasks,weshouldchoosesuitablesurveymethodscombinedwiththecharacteristicandnatureoftheresearchobject.Whennecessary,wemayalsouseacombinationofseveralsurveymethods.We‘llintroduceseveralusualsurveymethods,including:

thegeneralsurvey,majorsurveyandtypicalsurvey,sampleingsurveyandonlinesurvey.

Generalsurvey

Thegeneralsurveyreferredcensus,isspecialorganizedone-timecomprehensiveinvestigation.Suchasthenationalcensus,energycensus,industrialcensusetc.Thecensusisgenerallyorganizedintwoways:

oneistoestablishspecializedcensusinstitutions,equippedwithalotofinvestigators,theotheristouseoriginalrecordsandaccountinginformation,issuingquestionnairesfilledbytheregistrationunits.Whileconductingageneralsurvey,wehavetopayspecialattentiontothefollowingprinciples.

（1）Regulateduniformstandarddate.Itrefersthatallthe