中级宏观经济学讲义8.ppt

1、Intermediate Macroeconomics,8,Real v.s.Nominal I-Rate,The Fisher equation1 percentage pointI1 percentage point This one-for-one relation between the inflation rate and nominal i-rate is called the Fisher effect.,Nominal Interest Rate,The quantity theory+the Fisher equationthe rate of money supply in

2、 the rate of inflation in the nominal interest rate(Keynesian Chain?),Nominal Interest Rate,Ex Ante v.s.Ex Post,Is high inflation rate always accompanied by high i-rate?,一年期存贷款基准利率&CPI变动（%）,Ex Ante v.s.Ex Post real i-rate,朋友向你借1000元，商量好一年后本息合计1100元。那么你的实际收益率（本次借贷的实际利率）为多少？现在通胀率为3%，事前r(ex ante real i

3、nterest rate)=7%此一年通胀率为8%，事后r(ex post real interest rate)=2%,Ex Ante v.s.Ex Post real i-rate,名义利率更多取决于预期通胀率而非现实通胀率只是通胀一般有持续性，所以高通胀常伴随高利率未预期的通胀不一定伴随高利率,The Demand for Money,The cost of holding money,Inflation,Inflation:The overall increase in pricesHyperinflation:extraordinary high inflation(inflatio

4、n rate=50%/month),Inflation,2007新年伊始，老板宣布给所有员工加薪5%。全公司欢声雷动。截止8月居民消费者价格指数同比上升6.5%。感叹evil inflation夺走了你新增的收入。今年年底，老板决定再次给员工加薪5%，你会作何反应？,The Social Costs of Inflation,Unexpected inflationRedistribute wealth among individualsHurt individuals on fixed pensionsPsychological costs(most people are risk-aver

5、se),The Social Costs of Inflation,Expected inflationShoe-leather costMenu costPossible lower relative priceTax liabilityConfusion in value measuring,How To Stop a Hyperinflation,If the quantity theory were true i does not affect money demand stabilize money supple=stabilize P,How To Stop a Hyperinfl

6、ation,However,since the Fisher effect holds Stabilize money supply(growth rate of MS=0)Expected inflation rateMoney demand Money supply is fixedThe value of money Price of all other goods(easy to fall into deflation),How To Stop a Hyperinflation,How to stop a hyperinflation without causing deflation

7、 with Fisher Effect being true?,How To Stop a Hyperinflation,P,i,M,0,r,Time,End of inflation,Natural Rate of Unemployment,DefinitionsNatural rate of unemployment:the average rate of unemployment around which the economy fluctuatesMisery index:the sum of inflation and unemployment rates,Frictional Un

8、employment(1st reason),It takes time to match workers and jobse.g.technology improvement new production processes or new varieties of goods different locations and sectors,Frictional Unemployment(1st reason),Public policy implicationUnemployment insuranceReduce uncertainty about income so that econo

9、mically and mentallyBetter matching Howeverless pressure to search for new jobMore likely to turn down unattractive offers,Wait Unemployment(2nd reason),Wage rigidity-the failure of the wage to adjust until LS=LD,W/P,L,Real Wage,S,D,E,Minimum-wage laws,Wait Unemployment(2nd reason),W/P,Wait Unemploy

10、ment(2nd reason),Unions and collective bargaining The wages of workers in the union are determined not by the eqm of S and D but by collective bargaining between union leaders and firm management(wages is higher than the eqm level),Wait Unemployment(2nd reason),Wages for non-unionized workers due to

11、 union in other firms unemployment rateInsiders&outsiders-outsiders bear the cost of higher wages,Wait Unemployment(2nd reason),Efficiency wagesNutritionLabor turnover rateAverage quality of the work forceMoral hazard problem,Patterns of Unemployment,Variation in demographic groupsUnemployment rate by demographic groups 2000 U.S.(%),Patterns of Unemployment,Patterns of Unemployment,Patterns of Unemployment,