中级宏观经济学讲义8.ppt

中级宏观经济学讲义8.ppt

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IntermediateMacroeconomics,8,Realv.s.NominalI-Rate,TheFisherequation1percentagepointI1percentagepointThisone-for-onerelationbetweentheinflationrateandnominali-rateiscalledtheFishereffect.,NominalInterestRate,Thequantitytheory+theFisherequationtherateofmoneysupplyintherateofinflationinthenominalinterestrate（KeynesianChain?

）,NominalInterestRate,ExAntev.s.ExPost,Ishighinflationratealwaysaccompaniedbyhighi-rate?

一年期存贷款基准利率&CPI变动（%）,ExAntev.s.ExPostreali-rate,朋友向你借1000元，商量好一年后本息合计1100元。

那么你的实际收益率（本次借贷的实际利率）为多少？

现在通胀率为3%，事前r（exanterealinterestrate）=7%此一年通胀率为8%，事后r（expostrealinterestrate）=2%,ExAntev.s.ExPostreali-rate,名义利率更多取决于预期通胀率而非现实通胀率只是通胀一般有持续性，所以高通胀常伴随高利率未预期的通胀不一定伴随高利率,TheDemandforMoney,Thecostofholdingmoney,Inflation,Inflation:

TheoverallincreaseinpricesHyperinflation:

extraordinaryhighinflation（inflationrate=50%/month）,Inflation,2007新年伊始，老板宣布给所有员工加薪5%。

全公司欢声雷动。

截止8月居民消费者价格指数同比上升6.5%。

感叹evilinflation夺走了你新增的收入。

今年年底，老板决定再次给员工加薪5%，你会作何反应？

TheSocialCostsofInflation,UnexpectedinflationRedistributewealthamongindividualsHurtindividualsonfixedpensionsPsychologicalcosts（mostpeoplearerisk-averse）,TheSocialCostsofInflation,ExpectedinflationShoe-leathercostMenucostPossiblelowerrelativepriceTaxliabilityConfusioninvaluemeasuring,HowToStopaHyperinflation,Ifthequantitytheoryweretrueidoesnotaffectmoneydemandstabilizemoneysupple=stabilizeP,HowToStopaHyperinflation,However,sincetheFishereffectholdsStabilizemoneysupply（growthrateofMS=0）ExpectedinflationrateMoneydemandMoneysupplyisfixedThevalueofmoneyPriceofallothergoods（easytofallintodeflation）,HowToStopaHyperinflation,HowtostopahyperinflationwithoutcausingdeflationwithFisherEffectbeingtrue?

HowToStopaHyperinflation,P,i,M,0,r,Time,Endofinflation,NaturalRateofUnemployment,DefinitionsNaturalrateofunemployment:

theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuatesMiseryindex:

thesumofinflationandunemploymentrates,FrictionalUnemployment（1streason）,Ittakestimetomatchworkersandjobse.g.technologyimprovementnewproductionprocessesornewvarietiesofgoodsdifferentlocationsandsectors,FrictionalUnemployment（1streason）,PublicpolicyimplicationUnemploymentinsuranceReduceuncertaintyaboutincomesothateconomicallyandmentallyBettermatchingHoweverlesspressuretosearchfornewjobMorelikelytoturndownunattractiveoffers,WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）,Wagerigidity-thefailureofthewagetoadjustuntilLS=LD,W/P,L,RealWage,S,D,E,Minimum-wagelaws,WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）,W/P,WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）,UnionsandcollectivebargainingThewagesofworkersintheunionaredeterminednotbytheeqmofSandDbutbycollectivebargainingbetweenunionleadersandfirmmanagement（wagesishigherthantheeqmlevel）,WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）,Wagesfornon-unionizedworkersduetounioninotherfirmsunemploymentrateInsiders&outsiders-outsidersbearthecostofhigherwages,WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）,EfficiencywagesNutritionLaborturnoverrateAveragequalityoftheworkforceMoralhazardproblem,PatternsofUnemployment,VariationindemographicgroupsUnemploymentratebydemographicgroups2000U.S.（%）,PatternsofUnemployment,PatternsofUnemployment,PatternsofUnemployment,