演讲内容分为三个部分ThreeontheBund.docx

1、演讲内容分为三个部分ThreeontheBundCherie:Ladies and Gentlemen, Welcome to Three Talk. Welcome government officials and distinguished guests. Three Talk was founded four years ago. Our philosophy is philanthropy, sensitivity, and united in diversity. We are delighted Professor Stiglitz is here with us today. T

2、hank you for being with us. Todays topic may sound like a fairy tale, but we have a great panel here and they will give us insights on the global economic architecture. I would like to invite Mayor Tu to open the session. Mayor Tu:It is my great pleasure to be here with Professor Stiglitz and hear h

3、is presentation. Today, it is getting warmer and shining in Shanghai. We have gotten rid of more than 20 days of dreadful rain. What brings this wonderful time? I think it might have something to do with our event. When expecting the good sign of our economy situation, we are looking for theoretical

4、 analysis and guidance. There are three reasons why so many people are here. First, we are here because of Mr. Stiglitz. Personally, I have heard of him for a long time but I did not have the chance to meet him personally. He is so admirable because of his professional knowledge. His remarks and res

5、ponse to the economic problems we are facing today inspires us a lot. Secondly, he is famous for his rich experience. He teaches in a university and works in government. He left his footprint in many parts of the world. Three, he is so respected because of his inspiring ideals. He is working and loo

6、king for harmonious global development. These three reasons combine the first reason why we are here. Here comes the second reason: todays topic attracts us here. We are facing financial crisis nowadays. All the governments in the world are taking measures to deal with this problem. People here are

7、all concerned with what the Chinese government is doing towards this issue. We are eager to know why and how this worldwide financial fluctuation happens and what is the solution. We are eager to know the implications in those problems, and what lessons we could learn from this turbulence. Shanghai

8、is the most important city in China, as a government officer, Im here to learn to better the economic development in Shanghai. I am concerned with the events held by Three on The Bund. I find they provide a good platform for people to discuss and to learn. I am personally inspired a lot through atte

9、nding this kind of event. So, I think the principle or the philosophy of Three on the Bund put us here together to learn and to share. This is the third reason why we are here today. Thank you. Dr. Stiglitzs presentation will be short but if you want to learn more from him, do not worry; he will com

10、e here again in May for an important economic forum. Please feel free to continue to discuss all the issues with him at that time. Thank you.Dr. Fang:It is my great honor to introduce Dr. Stiglitz. It will not be an easy job since the mayor has already given us a very good introduction of Dr. Stigli

11、tz and this event. I was his student before and I will try to introduce him as good as I can. He is a very productive and knowledgeable scholar. Many people thought he would have a Nobel Prize long before he did so. Dr. Stiglitz is best known for his groundbreaking research into the analyses in mark

12、ets with asymmetric information for which he received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2001). In the early 1990s, the salary of CEOs in the US was not as high as today. I talked with him and he said those CEOs steal money from shareholders and they dont value that much. I remember it c

13、learly and based on what we have seen in the past two years, I think he is very insightful. Stiglitz takes the same routes as the Chinese scholar. After finishing his studies, Stiglitz served in the Clinton Administration as the chair of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisors from 1995 to 1997,

14、 and as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank from 1997 till 2000. He was also a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and has advised American President Barack Obama. Currently, he holds a Professorship at Columbia University, with appointments at the B

15、usiness School, the Department of Economics and the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). As of June 2008, he is the most cited economist globally. During his time as Chief Economist of the World Bank, his work became widely controversial due to his critical views of the International M

16、onetary Fund (IMF) and the rigid economic policies imposed upon developing nations such as Indonesia. He loves China and appreciates what we have achieved in China in the past thirty years. When I was in Stanford, during our conversations, I found he knows much about the Cultural Revolution and what

17、 Chairman Mao did. Now, I want to express my sincere hope that Dr. Stiglitz will come to China very often and give us his knowledgeable and inspiring insights. Thank you.Dr. Stiglitz: Thank you for inviting me here. The recovery of our economy, and sustainable and harmonious growth of the economy is

18、 of great concern and I am very glad to talk about it with you. I want to talk about the nature of this financial turbulence, Americas response, what needs to be done besides what the government has already done. In the early period of financial crisis, upon meeting the economic downturn, we thought

19、 the economic problems in US were decoupling and these problems would not be spreading to other countries. In globalization, however, every part of the world is integrated. The problem in the US is spreading to other countries. America supported the idea of deregulation. However, thanks to what happ

20、ens to other countries, we can see clearly what the problems are. America not only exported the toxic mortgage problems but our recession as well. We are facing economic recession and the recovery of the economy requires a cooperative effort. This turbulence is different from the one that happened i

21、n 1997. Countries like Indonesia and Korea recovered very quickly from the financial crisis because at that time they still could export and the rest of the world was growing robustly. But the current export situation is quite different from that period. According to the latest statistics, this year

22、 is the first year of negative global growth of the American economy. IMFs estimation is regarded to be too optimistic and we are facing a serious economic downturn. There are two major problems contributing to this crisis. First is about the credit problem and macroeconomic problem. When being aske

23、d about this economic downturn, Mr. Bush said that we built too many houses. I should say that besides talking about this phenomenon superficially, we should ask why we built so many houses. There are some answers, such as loose monetary policy and lack of regulation. Why? It has something to do wit

24、h the ideal. Many high level officials think that we do not need regulation and the market will take care of everything. Ideas are so important because they pre-shape our directions and approaches. The Central Bank was confident of solving the problems but it turned out to be a failure. As to the lo

25、ose monetary policy, here are the reasons. First we needed loose monetary policy to meet with insufficient demand and unemployment problems. Secondly, we are facing expanding inequality. We say to the people at the bottom dont worry, borrow money and buy things, it will be ok soon. So they borrowed

26、and borrowed. But this is not stable. This is not a good economic growth mode. Income has been reduced greatly in the past 8 or 9 years. The second problem in global demand is due to what the IMF did years ago. The IMF did poorly in the 1997s financial crisis, so the disappointed countries are now m

27、aking a great amount of foreign reserve. A premier in a country said that because of IMFs poor performance, we should save more reserve and save ourselves. This sounds rational to an individual country, but it is not to the whole development of the world. When facing this insufficient market demand

28、America said do not worry about insufficiency of demand, we will take care of this and keep paying. It is strange that the whole economic development of the world relies on the richest country in the world through its continuing paying. What we have done today cannot solve the above problems. What a

29、re the responses of America? First, let us talk about stimulating policy. I should say that Bushs administrations policy was not sufficient. Many people are not Keynesians when they say they are. The increase of the expenditure of the Federal government of America increased to 800 billion in the pas

30、t two years, while income is decreasing. As to the state expenditure, when the revenue goes down, it will be reduced. Now, the revenue is reduced, so is the state expenditure. The deficit is 100 billion a year and now we have a 400 billion deficit. As just a state, California has a 10 billion defici

31、t. When combining the expenditure from the federal level and state level, the total stimulating aid is just 400 billion, not 800. So, the stimulating money is not enough. Additionally, the tax reduction policy is problematic and not well designed. We have estimated that the tax reduction is useless.

32、 Many people save money. Though this helps individual family protection for the long run, it is harmful to the American economy. When noticing the reduction of their retirement pensions, the deep dive of the stock market, and the real estate market collapse, everybody worries about the future. Peopl

33、e save more money under the tax reduction policy and this policy cannot serve as an efficient stimulus to the economic development. We do need a stimulating plan, but we are not doing that very well. Second, let me talk about the underlying problems of mortgages. As to the loan and grant business with the banks: let me make an analogy. We are just inject