演讲内容分为三个部分ThreeontheBund.docx

演讲内容分为三个部分ThreeontheBund.docx

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演讲内容分为三个部分ThreeontheBund

Cherie:

LadiesandGentlemen,WelcometoThreeTalk.Welcomegovernmentofficialsanddistinguishedguests.ThreeTalkwasfoundedfouryearsago.Ourphilosophyisphilanthropy,sensitivity,andunitedindiversity.WearedelightedProfessorStiglitzisherewithustoday.Thankyouforbeingwithus.Today’stopicmaysoundlikeafairytale,butwehaveagreatpanelhereandtheywillgiveusinsightsontheglobaleconomicarchitecture.IwouldliketoinviteMayorTutoopenthesession.

MayorTu:

ItismygreatpleasuretobeherewithProfessorStiglitzandhearhispresentation.Today,itisgettingwarmerandshininginShanghai.Wehavegottenridofmorethan20daysofdreadfulrain.Whatbringsthiswonderfultime?

Ithinkitmighthavesomethingtodowithourevent.Whenexpectingthegoodsignofoureconomysituation,wearelookingfortheoreticalanalysisandguidance.Therearethreereasonswhysomanypeoplearehere.First,weareherebecauseofMr.Stiglitz.Personally,IhaveheardofhimforalongtimebutIdidnothavethechancetomeethimpersonally.Heissoadmirablebecauseofhisprofessionalknowledge.Hisremarksandresponsetotheeconomicproblemswearefacingtodayinspiresusalot.Secondly,heisfamousforhisrichexperience.Heteachesinauniversityandworksingovernment.Helefthisfootprintinmanypartsoftheworld.Three,heissorespectedbecauseofhisinspiringideals.Heisworkingandlookingforharmoniousglobaldevelopment.Thesethreereasonscombinethefirstreasonwhywearehere.Herecomesthesecondreason:

today’stopicattractsushere.Wearefacingfinancialcrisisnowadays.Allthegovernmentsintheworldaretakingmeasurestodealwiththisproblem.PeoplehereareallconcernedwithwhattheChinesegovernmentisdoingtowardsthisissue.Weareeagertoknowwhyandhowthisworldwidefinancialfluctuationhappensandwhatisthesolution.Weareeagertoknowtheimplicationsinthoseproblems,andwhatlessonswecouldlearnfromthisturbulence.ShanghaiisthemostimportantcityinChina,asagovernmentofficer,I’mheretolearntobettertheeconomicdevelopmentinShanghai.IamconcernedwiththeeventsheldbyThreeonTheBund.Ifindtheyprovideagoodplatformforpeopletodiscussandtolearn.Iampersonallyinspiredalotthroughattendingthiskindofevent.So,IthinktheprincipleorthephilosophyofThreeontheBundputusheretogethertolearnandtoshare.Thisisthethirdreasonwhyweareheretoday.Thankyou.Dr.Stiglitz’spresentationwillbeshortbutifyouwanttolearnmorefromhim,donotworry;hewillcomehereagaininMayforanimportanteconomicforum.Pleasefeelfreetocontinuetodiscussalltheissueswithhimatthattime.Thankyou.

Dr.Fang:

ItismygreathonortointroduceDr.Stiglitz.ItwillnotbeaneasyjobsincethemayorhasalreadygivenusaverygoodintroductionofDr.Stiglitzandthisevent.IwashisstudentbeforeandIwilltrytointroducehimasgoodasIcan.Heisaveryproductiveandknowledgeablescholar.ManypeoplethoughthewouldhaveaNobelPrizelongbeforehedidso.Dr.StiglitzisbestknownforhisgroundbreakingresearchintotheanalysesinmarketswithasymmetricinformationforwhichhereceivedtheNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicSciences（2001）.Intheearly1990’s,thesalaryofCEOsintheUSwasnotashighastoday.ItalkedwithhimandhesaidthoseCEOsstealmoneyfromshareholdersandtheydon’tvaluethatmuch.Irememberitclearlyandbasedonwhatwehaveseeninthepasttwoyears,Ithinkheisveryinsightful.

StiglitztakesthesameroutesastheChinesescholar.Afterfinishinghisstudies,StiglitzservedintheClintonAdministrationasthechairofthePresident'sCouncilofEconomicAdvisorsfrom1995to1997,andasSeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomistoftheWorldBankfrom1997till2000.HewasalsoaleadauthorfortheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandhasadvisedAmericanPresidentBarackObama.Currently,heholdsaProfessorshipatColumbiaUniversity,withappointmentsattheBusinessSchool,theDepartmentofEconomicsandtheSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs（SIPA）.AsofJune2008,heisthemostcitedeconomistglobally.DuringhistimeasChiefEconomistoftheWorldBank,hisworkbecamewidelycontroversialduetohiscriticalviewsoftheInternationalMonetaryFund（IMF）andtherigideconomicpoliciesimposedupondevelopingnationssuchasIndonesia.

HelovesChinaandappreciateswhatwehaveachievedinChinainthepastthirtyyears.WhenIwasinStanford,duringourconversations,IfoundheknowsmuchabouttheCulturalRevolutionandwhatChairmanMaodid.Now,IwanttoexpressmysincerehopethatDr.StiglitzwillcometoChinaveryoftenandgiveushisknowledgeableandinspiringinsights.Thankyou.

Dr.Stiglitz:

Thankyouforinvitingmehere.Therecoveryofoureconomy,andsustainableandharmoniousgrowthoftheeconomyisofgreatconcernandIamverygladtotalkaboutitwithyou.Iwanttotalkaboutthenatureofthisfinancialturbulence,America’sresponse,whatneedstobedonebesideswhatthegovernmenthasalreadydone.Intheearlyperiodoffinancialcrisis,uponmeetingtheeconomicdownturn,wethoughttheeconomicproblemsinUSweredecouplingandtheseproblemswouldnotbespreadingtoothercountries.Inglobalization,however,everypartoftheworldisintegrated.TheproblemintheUSisspreadingtoothercountries.Americasupportedtheideaofderegulation.However,thankstowhathappenstoothercountries,wecanseeclearlywhattheproblemsare.Americanotonlyexportedthetoxicmortgageproblemsbutourrecessionaswell.Wearefacingeconomicrecessionandtherecoveryoftheeconomyrequiresacooperativeeffort.

Thisturbulenceisdifferentfromtheonethathappenedin1997.CountrieslikeIndonesiaandKorearecoveredveryquicklyfromthefinancialcrisisbecauseatthattimetheystillcouldexportandtherestoftheworldwasgrowingrobustly.Butthecurrentexportsituationisquitedifferentfromthatperiod.Accordingtothelateststatistics,thisyearisthefirstyearofnegativeglobalgrowthoftheAmericaneconomy.IMF’sestimationisregardedtobetoooptimisticandwearefacingaseriouseconomicdownturn.

Therearetwomajorproblemscontributingtothiscrisis.Firstisaboutthecreditproblemandmacroeconomicproblem.Whenbeingaskedaboutthiseconomicdownturn,Mr.Bushsaidthatwebuilttoomanyhouses.Ishouldsaythatbesidestalkingaboutthisphenomenonsuperficially,weshouldaskwhywebuiltsomanyhouses.Therearesomeanswers,suchasloosemonetarypolicyandlackofregulation.Why?

Ithassomethingtodowiththeideal.Manyhighlevelofficialsthinkthatwedonotneedregulationandthemarketwilltakecareofeverything.Ideasaresoimportantbecausetheypre-shapeourdirectionsandapproaches.TheCentralBankwasconfidentofsolvingtheproblemsbutitturnedouttobeafailure.Astotheloosemonetarypolicy,herearethereasons.Firstweneededloosemonetarypolicytomeetwithinsufficientdemandandunemploymentproblems.Secondly,wearefacingexpandinginequality.Wesaytothepeopleatthebottomdon’tworry,borrowmoneyandbuythings,itwillbeoksoon.Sotheyborrowedandborrowed.Butthisisnotstable.Thisisnotagoodeconomicgrowthmode.Incomehasbeenreducedgreatlyinthepast8or9years.

ThesecondprobleminglobaldemandisduetowhattheIMFdidyearsago.TheIMFdidpoorlyinthe1997’sfinancialcrisis,sothedisappointedcountriesarenowmakingagreatamountofforeignreserve.ApremierinacountrysaidthatbecauseofIMF’spoorperformance,weshouldsavemorereserveandsaveourselves.Thissoundsrationaltoanindividualcountry,butitisnottothewholedevelopmentoftheworld.WhenfacingthisinsufficientmarketdemandAmericasaiddonotworryaboutinsufficiencyofdemand,wewilltakecareofthisandkeeppaying.Itisstrangethatthewholeeconomicdevelopmentoftheworldreliesontherichestcountryintheworldthroughitscontinuingpaying.

Whatwehavedonetodaycannotsolvetheaboveproblems.WhataretheresponsesofAmerica?

First,letustalkaboutstimulatingpolicy.IshouldsaythatBush’sadministration’spolicywasnotsufficient.ManypeoplearenotKeynesianswhentheysaytheyare.TheincreaseoftheexpenditureoftheFederalgovernmentofAmericaincreasedto800billioninthepasttwoyears,whileincomeisdecreasing.Astothestateexpenditure,whentherevenuegoesdown,itwillbereduced.Now,therevenueisreduced,soisthestateexpenditure.Thedeficitis100billionayearandnowwehavea400billiondeficit.Asjustastate,Californiahasa10billiondeficit.Whencombiningtheexpenditurefromthefederallevelandstatelevel,thetotalstimulatingaidisjust400billion,not800.So,thestimulatingmoneyisnotenough.Additionally,thetaxreductionpolicyisproblematicandnotwelldesigned.Wehaveestimatedthatthetaxreductionisuseless.Manypeoplesavemoney.Thoughthishelpsindividualfamilyprotectionforthelongrun,itisharmfultotheAmericaneconomy.Whennoticingthereductionoftheirretirementpensions,thedeepdiveofthestockmarket,andtherealestatemarketcollapse,everybodyworriesaboutthefuture.Peoplesavemoremoneyunderthetaxreductionpolicyandthispolicycannotserveasanefficientstimulustotheeconomicdevelopment.Wedoneedastimulatingplan,butwearenotdoingthatverywell.

Second,letmetalkabouttheunderlyingproblemsofmortgages.Astotheloanandgrantbusinesswiththebanks:

letmemakeananalogy.Wearejustinject