1、Bloomberg machine. But as economists struggle to make sense of the current recovery,the show may be among the best indicators around. By all accounts, the strength ofthe recovery depends on sustained spending by businesses. Investment carries theburden, said Laurence Meyer, a former Federal Reserve
2、governor. If the recentresurgence in business spending doesnt continue, the economy is unlikely to grow atthe rate of 4 to 4.5 percent that is widely forecast for next year.Office furniture is a useful indicator because it is typically one of the last thingsbusinesses buy when they begin spending af
3、ter a recession. There are higher-prioritythings than replacing a 10-year-old chair, said Robert Krasa, president and chiefexecutive of Haworth Inc., an office furniture maker in Holland, Mich. If businessesare starting to spend on furniture again, the argument goes, the economy shouldfinally be in
4、the clear.So what was the verdict at the National Exhibition of contract Furnishings East,or NeoCon East, one of the largest office furniture shows in the country? At firstglance, the signs were encouraging. Some 230 companies bought every bit of the100,000-square-foot exhibition space and attracted
5、 at least 7,000 retailers, interiordesigners and corporate facility managers.But while there was plenty of interest, manufacturers at the show complainedthat there was too much browsing and not enough placing of orders. They want theliterature; they want the pricing, said Lynn Dean, operations manag
6、er for the MichelaGroup, a company that represents several furniture companies. But, she said, when itcomes to actual purchases, Its not as good as it could be.That kind of cautious commentary is nothing new for the office furniture industry,which, like many manufacturing sectors, was caught off gua
7、rd by the length and depthof the economic problems that began in late 2000.We thought it might be a six- to nine-month downturn, said Beth Nickels, thechief financial officer at Herman Miller Inc., which is based in Zeeland, Mich., andmakes the Aeron chair and other office furniture. “That itd be ea
8、sy to ride out.”But by May 2001, the industry downturn was shaping up to be much deeper thanexpected. Some of Herman Millers biggest customers were hit hard by the collapse ofthe technology bubble. The company soon found itself having to scale back lessprofitable product lines and to shrink its labo
9、r forceto 7000 from 12000throughlayoffs, voluntary retirements and outsourcing.The rest of the office furniture industry experienced similar turmoil. Accordingto the Business and Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association, a trade group,the industrys sales fell 17 percent in 2001 from the pre
10、vious year, and an additional19 percent in 2002. (The group expects industry sales to fall by 5.5 percent in 2003.)Prior to this period, we had never had more than one consecutive year of decline,said Thomas Reardon, the groups executive director. None of the previous declineshad been double digits.
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