泛读教程4IsWeatherGettingWorseWord文档格式.docx

1、风暴在俄克拉何马和堪萨斯州横行肆 虐，造成49人死亡以及十多亿美元的 损失。六月，天气酷热，东北部连续 几周在热浪下炙烤，遭受了自六十年 代以来最严重的旱情，256人丧生。今 年一月，暴风雪横扫美国，从堪萨斯 州直至大西洋沿岸。四月，新英格兰 部分地区下的雪厚达二十五英 吋。为什么我们的天气变得如此 狂野？这是每个人都在问的问题，但 是很难回答。虽然许多科学家仍然不 相信天气已经失控，但有些人一一虽 然态度谨慎，仍存疑虑一一已经开始 说，与本世纪任何时段相比，极端性 天气出现的频率愈加频繁，这与全球Is Weather Getti ng Worse?Weather seems gett ing

2、 worse and wilder since Mother Nature is full of surprises these days. Global warming, a heated topic of today, is often take n for gran ted to be resp on sible for the harsh weather. However, scientists, like Kevin E. Trenberth, are cautious in making their judgment. Please read the following artic

3、le and find out whatrole El Ni n o and La Ni n a play.As you read this, flip your eyes over to the win dow. The sky is clear, the wind light, and the sun brilliant. Or maybe not Mother Nature is full of surprises these days. The cale ndar says its spri ng, but there could just as easily be a win ter

4、 blizzard, a summer swelter, or an autum n cold snap on the other side of that glass pane. Almost in an in sta nt, it seems, the weather shifts from one seas on to ano ther. And wherever it swin gs, it seemsin creas in gly likely to be extreme.Consider what Mother Nature slung our way last year in M

5、ay, typically the sec ond worst month for torn adoes. In less tha n 24 hours, more tha n 70 hellholes of wind rampaged through Oklahoma and Kansas, killing 49 and causing more than $1 billionin damages. In June, it was heat, as the Northeast bega n roast ing through weeks of the worst drought since

6、the 1960s; 256 people died. This year in Jan uary, blizzards pou nded the U.S. from Kan sas to the Atlantic Ocean. In April, 25 inches of snow fell on parts of New En gla nd.Why has our weather gone wild? Its the questi on every on es ask ing, but a very tough one toanswer. Although many scientists

7、still arent convin ced that it has gone wild, some have begu n say ing cautiously, hesita ntly that extremeweather eve nts are occurri ng with more freque ncy than at any time in this century, events consistentwith the profile of a warming world. Global warming is real, says Kevin E. Trenberth, head

8、 of the Climate An alysis Secti on of the Cen ter for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Themean temperatures are going up. The key question is: What will it do locally? I think were going to start feeling its effects in the changes on extremes.That does nt mean you can in dict weird weather

9、 in your n eck of the woods as proof. Mother Nature knows how to hide her tracks. She hurls a torrential dow npour today and a drought tomorrow followed by gen tle rain the n ext week. To un dersta nd a patter n in natural variability, you cant look into the sky; you have got to study data. And for

10、a host of reasons, that isnt easy.But tally ing up the damage is. In the last 20 years, this country has been whacked by $170 billionworth of weather-related disasters hurrica nes,droughts, floods, and torn adoes. Thirty-eight severe weather eve nts occurred in a sin gle decade, between 1988 and 199

11、9; seven events occurred in 1998 alone the most for any year on record.Globally, in sura nce compa nies are calli ng ita catastrophe tren d. I n a report issued last December, Munich Re, the worlds largest rein surer, or in surer of in sura nce compa ni es, no ted that the n umber of n atural disast

12、ers has in creased more tha nfourfold since the 1950s. Earthquakes, which are not weather-related, caused n early half the deaths in those catastrophes; storms, floods, and other weather woes killed the other half. In 1999, the n umber of catastrophes worldwide hit 755, surpass ing the record of 702

13、 set only the year before.In its five-po int list of causes for in creaseddamage claims, Mun ich Re blamed populati on growth first, climate change fifth. Critics may well seize upon this to diminish claims that the weather is gett ing worse, but take n together, its a more frightening picture. Than

14、ks to swelling populationsin cities and along coastal areas, more of Earths passengers are living in the wrong place at the wrongtime.变暖的量变曲线是吻合的。凯 文E 川伯斯是设在科罗拉多州博 耳德市的大气研究中心气候分析部的 主任，他说：“全球变暖是事 实。”“平均气温在上升。但关键问 题是，它会给具体地区带来什么？我 认为我们已开始感受到它的影响，天 气的变化趋于极端。”这并不意味着你可以用某一有 限区域的怪异天气作为控诉的证据。 大自然母亲知道该如何隐藏她

15、的行 踪。她今天猛地来一场倾盆大雨，明 天是干旱，紧接着是一周柔柔细雨。 你不能靠察看天象来了解自然变化的 模式，你必须得研究数据。但由于种 种原因，这并不容易。但是计算一下灾害损失却是容 易的。过去的二十年里，我们这个国 家与气候相关的灾难一一飓风、干旱、 洪水及龙卷风一一造成了高达一千七 百亿美元的损失。仅 1988年至1999 年这十年间就发生了 38起严重的气候事件，仅1998年就有7起气候事件， 这是有史以来受灾最多的一年。从全球范围来看，保险公司把天气 变暖称为“灾难趋势”。世界最大的 再保险商，即为保险公司提供保险的 墨尼黑再保险公司在去年十二月份发 行的一份报告中指岀，自 20

16、世纪50年代以来，自然灾害的数量已经增长 了四倍有余。在这些灾难中，和气候 无关的地震造成了近一半人的死亡； 风暴、洪灾以及其它气候性灾难夺去 了另一半人的生命。1999年，全世界 的灾难数目达到 755起，超过前一年 才创下的702起的记录。墨尼黑再保险公司在其列岀的 索赔要求日益增加的五点原因，认为 人口增长首当其冲，天气变化则列在 第五。一些批评家也许会紧抓住这一Still, the statistics meteorologists have collected on extreme weather eve nts arent en ough to prove that the wea

17、ther is getting worse. By their very defi niti on, extreme eve nts happe nin freque ntly, and no one has bee n collect ing scie ntifically sou nd data long eno ugh to know how com mon they are. For example, a storm that happe ns once a century might require two millennias worth of storm data to draw

18、 con clusi ons. To top it off, the computer models scientists use to study climatecrunch numbers on a scale of centuries at a time.Ideally, youd like data sets that go back several hun dred years, says Philip Arkin, deputy director of the International Research Institute for ClimatePredictio n at th

19、e Lam on t-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York. But they just dont exist. The U.S.data go back 50 years. Before World War II, its very difficult to come up with good numbers. Wehave some data on heavy rain eve nts before 1900, but theres no thi ng useful.Even if scientists could find good numbers,

20、 computer resolution is still too coarse to be able to forecast how something as simple as warming might affect climate in specific spots on the globe. The smallest amou nt of space on land, sea, ice, and air that scie ntists can study is about the size of Virgini a. If they cra nk up the resoluti o

21、n by 50 percent to focus on an area half that size, they pay for it in computing time a calculation that took 10 days to perform might now n eed three mon ths.Keith Dixon, a research meteorologist at the Nati onal Ocea nic and Atmospheric Admi ni strati ons Geophysical Fluid Dyn amics Laboratory in

22、New Jersey, recalls once he was being asked precisely what global warm ing would mean for state ski resorts. More snow? （Good.） Or more rain? （Bad.） I can un dersta nd why bus in esspeople or politicia ns ask. If you want to cut fuel, spe nd mon ey, and make decisi ons, you n eed to know why you sho

23、uld be doing this. Adds his colleague, Tom Kn uts on: I can certainly sympathize with them. But we cant answerit.点来轻视天气正越变越糟的观点，但 综合起来考虑，这是幅更可怕的画面。 幸亏人口增长主要在城市和沿海地 区，更多的“地球过客们”是在不适 当的时间住在了不适当的地方。尽管这样，气象学家收集的有 关极端性气候事件的统计数据，还不 足以证实天气正越变越糟。根据他们 的定义，极端性气候事件并不经常发 生，而没有人收集的可靠的科学数 据，在时间上长到足以弄清极端性气 候事件怎样的频

24、率才算正常的问题。 例如，一场百年一遇的风暴也许需要 两千年间的风暴数据，才能得出结论。 为了得岀结论，科学家研究气候所用 的计算机模型每一次都需要以世纪为 级别来处理数据。纽约拉蒙特-多尔蒂 地球观测站国际天气预报研究所副主 任菲利普阿尔金说，“理想的状况 是，你最好拥有数百年的数据。但根 本就没有这样的数据。美国有五十年 前的数据。二战以前则很难弄到理想 的数据。我们有一些 1900年以前的暴 雨灾害的数据，但派不上用场。即使科学家们能够找到可用的 数据，但由于计算机演算解析率仍然 太粗糙，无法预测象天气变暖这样一 个如此简单的变化会对地球上某个特 定地点的气候产生怎样的影响。科学 家们在

25、陆上、海上、冰层及大气中能 够研究的最小的的范围，相当于弗吉 尼亚州的大小。如果他们想研究上述 一半大小的区域，提高 50%的解析率， 那么代价就是计算时间。先前十天的 计算现在也许要三个月。新泽西国家海洋和大气局大气 物理流体动力学实验室气象学研究人 员基思迪克森回忆说，有一次有人 问全球变暖对各州的滑雪胜地具体意 味着什么。会下更多的雪？（好。） 或者雨量会增加？（不好。）“我明Since 1995, the literature has suggested that there could be fewer frosts, more heat waves, more droughts,

26、more intense rain falls, tropical cycl on es, and hurrica nes in the 21st cen tury whe n and if CQ levels double. But these projections ranklow on the con fide nee scale because scie ntists cannot say definitively if and how the events mightoccur.All of which does nt do the average citize n much goo

27、d. He does nt worry about 30-to-100-year shifts in the climate. What gets him is day-to-day weather:This heats killing me.Crops have failed here five years in a row.There have bee n three bad tor nadoes in as many weeks. We live in a society uniquely privileged to learn about weather events and to f

28、ear them. The Center for Media and Public Affairs, a watchdog group based in Wash ington, D.C., reports that media coverage of weather disasters more tha n doubled from 1997 to 1998 alone.Probably as a result, people are start ing to blame harsh weather on global warmi ng. Politicia ns are too. Jerr

29、y Mahlman, director of the GFDL, advises the White House on climate cha nge. He remembers sitt ing in a conference with Vice Preside nt Gore, who asked:Ca n we say that storms will be more extreme in the gree nhouse-e nhan ced earth? The scie ntist did nt fli nch as he replied, No. Gores shoulders s

30、eemed to crumple.Globally, the 1990s stood as the warmest decade for which we have records. Scie ntists already predict that by 2100, Earth could warm up ano ther 1.8 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Most of us think heat whe n we think global warm ing. Scie ntists think ice.Theyre worried about what will

31、 happen when all that extra heat hits the ice at Earths poles. A dominant hypothesis says that the water cycle will speed up: Heat will hasten ocean evaporation, and because hotair can hold more moisture, it could all be whisked away to rain more upon our heads.白为什么商人或政界人士要问这些问 题。如果你要减少燃料、投资以及做 决策，你得知道你为什么要做这些。 ”他的同事汤姆克努特森补充说：“当然我很同情他们，但是我们无法 回答这个问题。1