学术英语Unit4.docx

学术英语Unit4.docx

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学术英语Unit4

UnitFour

Task1

TheDawnofTheAgeofArtificialIntelligence

Reasonstocheertheriseofthemachines

ErikBrynjolfsson&AndrewMcafee

【1】Theadvanceswe’veseeninthepastfewyears–carsthatdrivethemselves,usefulhumanoidrobots,speechrecognitionandsynthesissystems,3Dprinters,Jeopardy!

-championcomputers—arenotthecrowningachievementsofthecomputerera.They’rethewarm-upacts.Aswemovedeeperintothesecondmachineagewe’llseemoreandmoresuchwonders,andthey’llbecomemoreandmoreimpressive.

【2】Howcanwebesosure?

Becausetheexponential,digital,andrecombinantpowersofthesecondmachineagehavemadeitpossibleforhumanitytocreatetwoofthemostimportantone-timeeventsinourhistory:

theemergenceofreal,usefulartificialintelligence（AI）andtheconnectionofmostofthepeopleontheplanetviaacommondigitalnetwork.

【3】Eitheroftheseadvancesalonewouldfundamentallychangeourgrowthprospects.Whencombined,they’remoreimportantthananythingsincetheIndustrialRevolution,whichforevertransformedhowphysicalworkwasdone.

ThinkingMachines,Availablenow

【4】Digitalmachineshaveescapedtheirnarrowconfinesandstartedtodemonstratebroadabilitiesinpatternrecognition,complexcommunication,andotherdomainsthatusedtobeexclusivelyhuman.We’verecentlyseengreatprogressinnaturallanguageprocessing,machinelearning（theabilityofacomputertoautomaticallyrefineitsmethodsandimproveitsresultsasitgetsmoredata）,computervision,simultaneouslocalizationandmapping,andmanyotherareas.

【5】We’regoingtoseeartificialintelligencedomoreandmore,andasthishappenscostswillgodown,outcomeswillimprove,andourliveswillgetbetter.SooncountlesspiecesofAIwillbeworkingonourbehalf,ofteninthebackground.They’llhelpusinareasrangingfromtrivialtosubstantivetolifechanging.TrivialusesofAIincluderecognizingourfriends’facesinphotosandrecommendingproducts.Moresubstantiveonesincludeautomaticallydrivingcarsontheroad,guidingrobotsinwarehouses,andbettermatchingjobsandjobseekers.Buttheseremarkableadvancespaleagainstthelife-changingpotentialofartificialintelligence.

【6】Totakejustonerecentexample,innovatorsattheIsraelicompanyOrCamhavecombinedasmallbutpowerfulcomputer,digitalsensors,andexcellentalgorithmstogivekeyaspectsofsighttothevisuallyimpaired（apopulationnumberingmorethantwentymillionintheUnitedStatesalone）.AuseroftheOrCamsystem,whichwasintroducedin2013,clipsontoherglassesacombinationofatinydigitalcameraandspeakerthatworksbyconductingsoundwavesthroughthebonesofthehead.Ifshepointsherfingeratasourceoftextsuchasabillboard,packageoffood,ornewspaperarticle,thecomputerimmediatelyanalyzestheimagesthecamerasendstoit,thenreadsthetexttoherviathespeaker.

【7】Readingtext‘inthewild’–inavarietyoffonts,sizes,surfaces,andlightingconditions—hashistoricallybeenyetanotherareawherehumansoutpacedeventhemostadvancedhardwareandsoftware.OrCamandsimilarinnovationsshowthatthisisnolongerthecase,andthathereagaintechnologyisracingahead.Asitdoes,itwillhelpmillionsofpeopleleadfullerlives.TheOrCamcostsabout$2,500–thepriceofagoodhearingaid–andiscertaintobecomecheaperovertime.

【8】Digitaltechnologiesarealsorestoringhearingtothedeafviacochlearimplantsandwillprobablybringsightbacktothefullyblind;theFDArecentlyapprovedafirst-generationretinalimplant.AI’sbenefitsextendeventoquadriplegics,sincewheelchairscannowbecontrolledbythoughts.Consideredobjectively,theseadvancesaresomethingclosetomiracles–andthey’restillintheirinfancy.

BillionsofInnovators,ComingSoon

【9】InadditiontopowerfulandusefulAI,theotherrecentdevelopmentthatpromisestofurtheracceleratethesecondmachineageisthedigitalinterconnectionoftheplanet’speople.Thereisnobetterresourceforimprovingtheworldandbetteringthestateofhumanitythantheworld’shumans–all7.1billionofus.Ourgoodideasandinnovationswilladdressthechallengesthatarise,improvethequalityofourlives,allowustolivemorelightlyontheplanet,andhelpustakebettercareofoneanother.Itisaremarkableandunmistakablefactthat,withtheexceptionofclimatechange,virtuallyallenvironmental,social,andindividualindicatorsofhealthhaveimprovedovertime,evenashumanpopulationhasincreased.

【10】Thisimprovementisnotaluckycoincidence;itiscauseandeffect.Thingshavegottenbetter because therearemorepeople,whointotalhavemoregoodideasthatimproveouroveralllot.TheeconomistJulianSimonwasoneofthefirsttomakethisoptimisticargument,andheadvanceditrepeatedlyandforcefullythroughouthiscareer.Hewrote,“Itisyourmindthatmatterseconomically,asmuchormorethanyourmouthorhands.Inthelongrun,themostimportanteconomiceffectofpopulationsizeandgrowthisthecontributionofadditionalpeopletoourstockofusefulknowledge.Andthiscontributionislargeenoughinthelongruntoovercomeallthecostsofpopulationgrowth.”

【11】WedohaveonequibblewithSimon,however.Hewrotethat,“Themainfueltospeedtheworld’sprogressisourstockofknowledge,andthebrakeisourlackofimagination.”Weagreeaboutthefuelbutdisagreeaboutthebrake.Themainimpedimenttoprogresshasbeenthat,untilquiterecently,asizableportionoftheworld’speoplehadnoeffectivewaytoaccesstheworld’sstockofknowledgeortoaddtoit.

【12】IntheindustrializedWestwehavelongbeenaccustomedtohavinglibraries,telephones,andcomputersatourdisposal,butthesehavebeenunimaginableluxuriestothepeopleofthedevelopingworld.Thatsituationisrapidlychanging.In2000,forexample,therewereapproximatelysevenhundredmillionmobilephonesubscriptionsintheworld,fewerthan30percentofwhichwereindevelopingcountries.

【13】By2012thereweremorethansixbillionsubscriptions,over75percentofwhichwereinthedevelopingworld.TheWorldBankestimatesthatthree-quartersofthepeopleontheplanetnowhaveaccesstoamobilephone,andthatinsomecountriesmobiletelephonyismorewidespreadthanelectricityorcleanwater.

【14】Thefirstmobilephonesboughtandsoldinthedevelopingworldwerecapableoflittlemorethanvoicecallsandtextmessages,yeteventhesesimpledevicescouldmakeasignificantdifference.Between1997and2001theeconomistRobertJensenstudiedasetofcoastalvillagesinKerala,India,wherefishingwasthemainindustry.10Jensengathereddatabothbeforeandaftermobilephoneservicewasintroduced,andthechangeshedocumentedareremarkable.Fishpricesstabilizedimmediatelyafterphoneswereintroduced,andeventhoughthesepricesdroppedonaverage,fishermen’sprofitsactuallyincreasedbecausetheywereabletoeliminatethewastethatoccurredwhentheytooktheirfishtomarketsthatalreadyhadenoughsupplyfortheday.Theoveralleconomicwell-beingofbothbuyersandsellersimproved,andJensenwasabletotiethesegainsdirectlytothephonesthemselves.

【15】Now,ofcourse,eventhemostbasicphonessoldinthedevelopingworldaremorepowerfulthantheonesusedbyKerala’sfishermanoveradecadeago.Andcheapmobiledeviceskeepimproving.TechnologyanalysisfirmIDCforecaststhatsmartphoneswilloutsellfeaturephonesinthenearfuture,andwillmakeupabouttwo-thirdsofallsalesby2017.

【16】Thisshiftisduetocontinuedsimultaneousperformanceimprovementsandcostdeclinesinbothmobilephonedevicesandnetworks,andithasanimportantconsequence:

itwillbringbillionsofpeopleintothecommunityofpotentialknowledgecreators,problemsolvers,andinnovators.

‘InfiniteComputing’andBeyond

【17】Today,peoplewithconnectedsmartphonesortabletsanywhereintheworldhaveaccesstomany（ifnotmost）ofthesamecommunicationresourcesandinformationthatwedowhilesittinginourofficesatMIT.TheycansearchtheWebandbrowseWikipedia.Theycanfollowonlinecourses,someofthemtaughtbythebestintheacademicworld.Theycansharetheirinsightsonblogs,Facebook,Twitter,andmanyotherservices,mostofwhicharefree.TheycanevenconductsophisticateddataanalysesusingcloudresourcessuchasAmazonWebServicesandR,anopensourceapplicationforstatistics.13Inshort,theycanbefullcontributorsintheworkofinnovationandknowledgecreation,takingadvantageofwhatAutodeskCEOCarlBasscalls“infinitecomputing.”

【18】Untilquiterecentlyrapidcommunication,informationacquisition,andknowledgesharing,especiallyoverlongdistances,wereessentiallylimitedtotheplanet’selite.Nowthey’remuchmoredemocraticandegalitarian,andgettingmoresoallthetime.ThejournalistA.J.Lieblingfamouslyremarkedthat,“Freedomofthepressislimitedtothosewhoownone.”Itisnoexaggerationtosaythatbillionsofpeoplewillsoonhaveaprintingpress,referencelibrary,school,andcomputerallattheirfingertips.

【19】Webelievethatthisdevelopmentwillboosthumanprogress.Wecan’tpredictexactlywhatnewinsights,products,andsolutionswillarriveinthecomingyears,butwearefullyconfidentthatthey’llbeimpressive.Thesecondmachineagewillbecharacterizedbycountlessinstancesofmachineintelligenceandbillionsofinterconnectedbrainsworkingtogethertobetterunderstandandimproveourworld.Itwillmakemockeryoutofallthatcamebefore. 

Notes

1.ErikBynjolfsson:

HeisanAmericanacademicandSchusselFamilyProfessorofManagementattheM