资本价格与经济结构外文文献翻译中英文.docx

资本价格与经济结构外文文献翻译中英文.docx

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资本价格与经济结构外文文献翻译中英文

资本价格与经济结构外文文献翻译中英文2020

英文

Therelativepriceofcapitalandeconomicstructure

RobertoSamaniego

Abstract

Aretrendsinthepriceofcapitaltechnologicalinnature?

First,wefindthattrendsintherelativepriceofcapitalvarysignificantlyacrosscountries.Wethenshowthatamulti-industrygrowthmodel,calibratedtomatchdifferencesineconomicstructurearoundtheworldandproductivitygrowthratesacrossindustries,accountsforthisvariation–mainlyduetovariationinthecompositionofcapital.Thefindingindicatesthattherateofchangeintherelativepriceofcapitalcanbeinterpretedasinvestment-specifictechnicalchange–theextenttowhichproductivitygrowthisrelativelymorerapidinthecapital-producingsector.Themodelalsoaccountsfortheempiricaldispersionofinvestmentrates,butnotofratesofeconomicgrowth.

Keywords:

Investment-specifictechnicalchange,Multi-sectorgrowthmodels,Structuraltransformation,Capitalgoodsprices

Introduction

DeclinesintherelativepriceofcapitalareviewedasanimportantfactorofeconomicgrowthintheUnitedStates（US）.Seeforexampleworkby Hulten（1992）, Greenwoodetal.（1997）, CumminsandViolante（2002） and Oulton（2007）.Thesestudiestypicallyidentifythedeclineinthepriceofcapitalasbeingtechnologicalinnature,reflectingfasterproductivitygrowthintheproductionofnewcapitalthanintheproductionofconsumptionandservices–aphenomenonknownas investment-specifictechnicalchange （ISTC）.However,theextenttowhichtherelativepriceofcapitaldeclines inothercountries isnotknown.Inaddition,itisnotknownwhethertrendsinthepriceofcapitalaroundtheworldcanbegivena technological interpretation,suchasISTC.Analternativehypothesisisthatthesedifferencesareduetothepresenceofbarrierstocapitalaccumulation,asproposedby RestucciaandUrrutia（2001） toaccountfordifferencesin levels ofthepriceofcapital.

Webeginbydocumentingthattherateatwhichtherelativepriceofcapitalchangesovertimevariessignificantlyacrosscountries.Wefindthatthemediangrowthrateofthepriceofcapitaliszero.Inaddition,thepriceofcapital increasesinasmanyplacesasitdecreases.Thisindicatesthat,ifthereisatechnologicalexplanationforthisphenomenon,technicalprogressincapitalrelativetoothersectorsmustvarywidelyaroundtheworld.

Iftheexplanationisindeedtechnological,however,onewouldexpectsuchglaringdifferencesinproductivitytobeevidenceofdraconianbarrierstointernationaltechnologytransfer（ortrade）.Thealternativepossibilityisthatcapitalandconsumptionarethemselveshighlydisaggregated,andthattherearesubstantialdifferencesinthe composition ofcapitalandconsumptionaroundtheworldthataccountfortheaggregatedifferencesinthetrendsintherelativepriceofcapital.

Weaskwhetherthisvariationcanbeaccountedforbydifferencesin industrycomposition.Thereasonwedothisisasfollows.ItiswellknownthatratesoftechnicalprogressintheUSdiffersignificantlynotjustbetweencapitalandnon-capital,butalsoacross types ofconsumption,servicesandcapital.Thus,evenifproductivitygrowthratesareconstantacrosscountriesforeachindustry,therateofchangeintherelativepriceofcapitalmaybedifferentifthe composition ofcapital–orthecompositionofconsumptionandservices–isdifferent.Indeed,wefindthatthecompositionofcapitalisskewedtowardshigh-TFPgrowthcapitaltypesincountrieswherethepriceofcapitaldeclinesrapidly.Wethereforeask:

towhatextentcandifferencesaroundtheworldinindustrycompositionaccountforvariationintherateatwhichtherelativepriceofcapitalchanges?

Tothisend,weemployacanonicalmulti-industrygrowthmodel.Inthemodel,thecompositionoftheeconomyevolvesasaresultofchangesinpricesofdifferentgoodsorservicesthatagentsconsume,aswellaschangesinthepricesofdifferentcapitalgoods. Inturn,thesearedeterminedbydifferencesinproductivitygrowthratesacrossindustries.WecalibratethemodelusingdetailedproductivitygrowthdatafromtheUS,aswellasdataontheinitialcompositionofeconomiesaroundtheworldintheyear1991.Weuseconstantproductivitygrowthratesforagivenindustryinallcountriespartlybecauseofdatalimitations;however,asmentioned,significantbarrierstotechnologicaltransferwouldhavetoexisttosignificantlydeviatefromthisassumption.Compositionisakeypartofthe“nobarriers”hypothesis.

Strikingly,wefindthatthemodeldeliversaclosematchtotherateofchangeintherelativepriceofcapital,asmeasuredusingthePennWorldTables（PWT）version7.1. Inastatisticalsense,themodelcanaccountfortheentiretyofthemagnitudeofvariationofthegrowthrateintherelativepriceofcapitalovertheperiodfrom1983to2011,simplybasedonindustryTFPgrowthratedifferencesandondifferencesinindustrycompositionacrosscountries.Notonlydoesthemodelmatchtheextentofvariation,butalsothecorrelationsbetweenmodel-generatedcapitalpricegrowthratesandthoseinthedataarehighlysignificant.Weconcludethatdifferencesintherelativepriceofcapitalaroundtheworldcanbeinterpretedasatechnologicalphenomenon–ISTC–andthatakeyfactorbehindthesedifferencesisindustrycomposition.

Thelinkbetweencompositionandthedeclineintherelativepriceofcapitalcouldbefortworeasons:

differencesinthecompositionofcapital,orinthecompositionofnon-capital.Werefertothesepossibilitiesasthe capitalhypothesisandthe consumptionhypothesis,respectively.Westudytheimportanceofeachhypothesisbyremovingproductivitygrowthdifferencesinthecapitalproducingindustries,andthenseparatelyremovingtheminthenon-capitalproducingindustries.Wefindthatthe capitalhypothesis ismainlyresponsibleforcross-countryvariationinISTC:

removingproductivitygrowthinnon-capitalmakesverylittledifferencetotheresults,whereasremovingproductivitygrowthincapital-producingindustriesresultsinmodel-generatedstatisticsthatbearlittlerelationshipwiththedata.

Finally,weasktowhatextentagrowthmodeldrivensolelybythesefactorscanaccountfordifferencesinaggregatebehavioracrosscountriesoverthesampleperiod.Specifically,welookatinvestmentratesandratesofeconomicgrowth.Thisisanon-trivialtask,asitrequiressolvingforinvestmentpatternsinamodelwhereconditionsforabalancedgrowthpathdonotholdingeneral.WefindthatthemodelgeneratesinvestmentratesthatarestronglycorrelatedwithinvestmentratesinthePWT7.1dataandthePWT9.1data,althoughtheyunderpredicttheextentofempiricalvariationininvestmentrates.Thus,themodelisabletocapturecross-countryvariationinbothISTCand（toalesserextent）investmentrates,solelybasedondifferencesinindustrycomposition.However,themodeldoesnotgenerateagoodmatchtovariationinratesof economicgrowth inthePWT7.1data,norinthePWT9.1data.WeconcludethatthereiswidespreaddivergenceintherateofISTCaroundtheworld,andthatthisaccountsforvariationininvestment,butthateconomicgrowthratesareduetootherfactors.Interestingly,whenwegiveeachcountryanaggregateproductivitytrendthatexactlymatchesitseconomicgrowthrateinthedata,investmentratesarenolongercorrelatedwiththoseinthedata,suggestingthatwhateverfactorsdounderlieratesofeconomicgrowtharenotsimplycapturedbyatrendinproductivity.

Theresultscontributetoalong-standingdebateregardingwhetherornotchangesintheefficiencyofinvestmentareanimportantfactorofgrowth.Thisdebategoesbackto Solow（1962）, Abramovitz（1962） and Denison（1964）. Greenwoodetal.（1997） findthat,intheUS,morethanhalfofeconomicgrowthcanbeaccountedforbyISTCinageneralequilibriumgrowthaccountingframework.Weprovideaclearanswertothequestionaboutwhetherdifferencesintherelativepriceofcapitalcanbeattributedtobarriersortotechnologicalfactors,indicatingthatchangesintheefficiencyofinvestmentareanimportantfactoraffectinggrowthrates.Thisisnottosaythatthereisnoscopeforbarrierstobeimportantfortherelativepriceofcapital;however,theirimpactmightnotbedirect,butrather indirect,throughtheirinfluenceoneconomiccomposition.Morebroadly,thissuggeststhatfutureworkonthemannerinwhichfactorsofeconomicgrowthmightbeaffectedbypolicythroughthechannelofeconomiccompositioncouldbefruitful.

Discussion

Commentsoninstitutions

Wefindthatthemodelwithoutbarriersaccountswellfortheempiricalmagnitudeandvariationin log⁡gq,solelyonthebasisofeconomiccomposition.Ontheotherhand,ourfindingsdoleavethedooropenforinstitutionalfactorsorotherbarrierstoinfluence log⁡gq indirectly,throughanyimpacttheymighthaveoneconomiccomposition.

Whatmightthesedeterminantsbe?

Thereisaprecedentintheliteraturefortheideathatpolicyorinstitutionalfactorsmayaffectcomposition.Forexample, Samaniego（2006） showsinanopen-economycontextthat labormarketregulationcanaffectcomparativeadvantageinindustriesdependingontheirrateofISTC,skewingindustrialcompositiontowardsindustriesthatusecapitaltypeswithlowvaluesof gi （aneffecttermed high-techaversion）.Also, IlyinaandSamaniego（2012） showthatwhentechnologyadoptionrequiresexternalfinancing, financialunderdevelopment alsoskewsindustrialcompositiontowardslow-techindustries.Thisbegsthequestionastowhetheranypolicyorinstitutionalindicatorsmightbestatisticallyrela