人民币升值的影响外文翻译.docx

人民币升值的影响外文翻译.docx

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人民币升值的影响外文翻译

TheimpactofRMBappreciation

Asthecomprehensivestrengthofthenationaleconomygrows,theChinesecurrency,theRenminbi（RMB）begantoappreciate.EffectsoftheRMB'sappreciationsinceJulyhavebeenfeltbothdomesticallyandabroad,andwillbecomeevenmoresignificantwithtime.Chinashouldembracethenewopportunitiesthatappreciationhasopened-upandallowmoreroomforthenationaleconomytogrowintheprocessofglobalization.

PeopleneedtobeawarethattheappreciationoftheRMBmayhavesomelessdesirableeffectsoneconomicgrowthintheshortterm.Currently,China'sexportmarketstillreliesheavilyoncheaplabortocompeteintheinternationalmarket.Asitsaddedvalueislow,theappreciationoftheRMBwillaffectChina'sexportandconsequentlytheoverallgrowthrateofthenationaleconomy.However,therearealsomanypositiveaspectstotheappreciationoftheRMB.Inthelongrun,RMBappreciationwillgeneratemoredevelopmentopportunities.Peoplewillfeelricher,itwillimproveChina'sstatusandinfluenceintheworldeconomyanditwillchangethecommoditystructureandtheflowofinvestment.Itwillalsohaveasignificantinfluenceonthestructureofdomesticproductionresources.

Firstofall,itwillaccelerateindustrialupgrading.Inamarketeconomy,thefluctuationoftheforeignexchangerateinvolvestheinternationalbalanceofincomesandexpensesandisanimportantpriceindicator.TheappreciationoftheRMBmeansthatthepriceofvariousdomesticresources,especiallylandandlabor,willgoupinrelativetermsandthiswillspeedupnecessaryadjustmentstothecommoditymixanddomesticindustry.RMBappreciationwillgraduallychangethevalueoftheinternationalanddomesticmarkets.Domesticenterpriseswillrelymoreonsalestothedomesticmarketsothatnationaleconomicgrowthislessdependentonexportdemandandamorereasonableindustrialstructurewillform.

Secondly,itwillpromotetechnicalinnovation.Inmanycountries,technicalinnovationreliesprimarilyonamarketmechanismwhichmakesgooduseofpriceasalever.China'sproductionprocessisenormouslycostlyintermsofresourcesandenergy,andlaboristoocheap.TheappreciationoftheRMBwillcauseanincreaseinthedomesticpricesofsuchthingsaslandandlaboraswellstimulatethedemandforinnovation.Productsforexportmustrelyontechnologicalinnovationtobemorecompetitiveinternationally.Inthedomesticmarket,enterprisesarealsoforcedtocompetethroughtechnologicalinnovation.Simplyspeaking,theappreciationoftheRMBwillcausetheformationofamarketenvironmentthatisconducivetospeedinguptechnologicalinnovation.

Thirdly,theappreciationoftheRMBwillbenefitthepeople.Ontheonehand,itwillmakeimportedproductsrelativelycheaper.ItwillalsobecheaperforChinesetotravelabroad.Thiswillincreaseconsumption.Ontheotherhand,itwillpushupthemarketpriceofdomesticfinancialassets,changingthefinancialmarketstructure.Ifotherconditionsdon'tchange,Chinesepeoplewillfeelricherasthevalueoftheirmoneygrowsandfurtherstimulatesdomesticdemand.OfgreaterstrategicsignificanceisthefactthattheappreciationoftheRMBwillmakethepriceChineselaborpricehigher.

RMBappreciationreflectsthesuccessofChineseeconomicdevelopmentafterreformandopeningup.ItisalsoanimportantturningpointinChina'ssocialandeconomicsituation.ThedownsidestoRMBappreciationshouldn'tbeoveremphasized.ThefluctuationoftheRMBistheresultofchangestothecurrenteconomicstructureandwillhaveanimportantimpactontheeconomicstructureofthefuture.Maintainingthestatusquoisshort-sightedandwillharmthelong-terminterestsofChina.ThebestchoiceistospeedupthetransformationoftheeconomicgrowthmodeandadapttotheappreciationofRMBtomakethemostfromtheprocess.

WiththeannouncementofreformingtheRMBexchangerateregimeonJuly21,2005,greatattentionhasbeenpaidtotheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’strade.SinceChinabeinginthetransitionfrompeggingtoamanagedfloatingregime,noexistingapproximatemodelandmethodcanbeutilizedtoinvestigatethisquestiondirectly.Inthispaper,scenarioanalysistechniqueisusedtogiveastudyonthisissue,coupledwiththeintroductionofthesubstitutedvaluables:

JapaneseyenandEuroexchangerate.OurresultsshowthatRMB’sappreciationwouldnotbringsevereeffectsonChina’stradein2005;however,thepossiblesustainedreductionofexportgrowthin2006shouldbepaidmoreattention.ItisalsonecessaryandurgenttopressforwardwiththereformofRMBexchangerateregime,andputuptherelatedsupportingpoliciestoavoidsuchsuddenfluctuationastheJapanesesituationafter“PlazaAccord”.

TheRMBexchangeratebecameahottopicaftertheannouncementofexchange

rateregimereformonJuly21,2005.Thenewregime,amanagedfloatingexchangerateregimebasedonmarketsupplyanddemandwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencies,allowsRMBtoriseby2%,withadaily0.3%tradingbandbasedonthepriceofthepreviousday.Withitsrapiddevelopment,China’seconomyhasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantelementintheglobaleconomicdevelopmentandintegration.Againstthisbackdrop,theimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradeattractgreatattention.

BeforethisreformofRMB,therehasemergedavasttheoreticalliteratureconcentratedontheimpactsofRMB’srevaluation.However,relativelylittleresearchhasbeenundertakenontheempiricalanalysisofthisissue.Cyn-YoungPark（2005）,aneconomistinAsianDevelopmentBank,analyzedmacroeconomicimpactofa“one-off”appreciationoftheRMBagainstthedollarusingtheOxfordEconomicForecastingmodel.Thisworkmayshedlightonthedynamicsbetweenglobalimbalancesandrevaluation.TheOEFmodelframeworkallowssimulationanalysesbasedontheglobaleconometricstructure,whichwillprovidesomequantitativeresultsfortheimpactsofarevaluationontheconcernedeconomies,suchasthePRC,Japan,US,andotherAsiancountries.Thestabilityofequilibriumstatemaybedamagedwhentheregimeshifts,which,however,cannotbestudiedinthismodel.Zhang,aresearcherinChineseAcademyoftheseresultssuggestedthattheimpactofarevaluationonChina’seconomymightchangeintheproportionofanappreciation’sscale.Infact,intheshortterm,thereasonablenessofthisproportionateresultshouldbedoubted.

Themainbodyofexistingliterature,however,hassofarmostlycenteredonquantitativediscussiondescribingtherelationbetweentradeandexchangerate.Therehasbeensurprisinglylittleempiricalworkthatfocusontheexchangerateregimeshift,especiallyfrompeggingtotheUSdollartoamanagedfloatingregime,Noexistingappropriatemodelormethodcanbefoundtosupportthiskindofresearchdirectly.Therefore,someindirectmethodsshouldbeexperimentedforstudyingthisissuewiththesubstitutevariablesintroduced.

Inthispaper,scenarioanalysistechniqueisusedtogiveasensitivityanalysisofChina’stradetotheappreciationofRMB.ThefirsttypeofscenariosisahypotheticscenariobeingrelatedwiththecurrentappreciationofRMBby2%;whilethesecondonethatbelongstothehistoricalscenarioisbasedonthehistoricalevent---theJapaneseyen’svariabilityaftersubscribing“PlazaAccord”.Theremainingpartofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.ThetheoryandmethodofscenarioanalysesareintroducedinSection2.ModelsandtheirevaluationareoutlinedinSection3.ForecastingresultsfromscenariosanalysesarepresentedinSection4.

Scenarioanalysis（CommitteeontheGlobalFinancialSystem,2000）isakindofstresstestingwhichservestoestimatepotentialextremelossesofaportfoliovalueandgivehelpfulsuggestionstothedecisionmakersinriskmanagementofacompanyorafinancialinstitution.Generally,scenarioisameanstoexplorethefutureeconomicsituation,andidentifywhatmighthappenandhowanorganizationcanactorreactuponfuturedevelopments.

TheRMB’sappreciationshouldundoubtedlygenerateextensiveandfar-reachingimplicationforChina’seconomy,especiallyforexports.Thisresearchshouldbebasedonestablishingandtestingeconometricmodels.Weestablishtheevaluatdmodelsforexportandtradingformsrespectively.Inthefollowingempiricalwork,thesemodelsareusedinthescenarioanalysisofChina’strade.ThesampledataarecollectedovertheperiodfromJan.2005.DataonexportandimportaretakenfromChina’sCustomsStatistics.TheexchangeratedataareobtainedfromtheUniversityofBritishColumbia’swebsite.

Inthispaper,thescenarioanalysisisusedtoanalyzetheeffectsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradein2005and2006.OurevidenceshowsthatChina’sexportswouldcontinuetokeepastrongincreasingtrendinthehypotheticalscenariobeingaone-offappreciationof2%.SeenfromthecurrentsituationaboutRMB,thesimilarfavorableresultsmaybeexpectedtooccurifRMBexchangerateregimewouldmarkasoundoperation.Therefore,weconcludethatChina’seaportswouldnotbeaffectedmuchbythecurrentappreciationofRMB,andwouldkeepanincreasingtrendin2005.Ontheotherhand,despitetherapiddevelopmentofChina’sexportswhichnotonlybenefitfromChina’sstrongeconomicdevelopment,butalsofromthestronginternationalcompetitivenessofexportgoods,therestillexisttheriskduetotheobvioussustaineddropofgrowthin2006,whichmayimpedetherapidgrowthofexports.Domesticdemandshouldalsobepromotedtocounteracttheriskfromthefluctuationofinternationalmarket.

ByPeopl