britanniaruesthewaves原文.docx
《britanniaruesthewaves原文.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《britanniaruesthewaves原文.docx(15页珍藏版)》请在冰点文库上搜索。
britanniaruesthewaves原文
BritanniaRuestheWaves
AndrewNeil
Britain'smerchantnavyseldomgrabstheheadlinesthesedays;itisalmostaforgottenindustry.Yetshippingistheessentiallifelineforthenation'seconomy.Ninety-ninepercentofourtradeinandoutofthecountrygoesbyship—andoverhalfofitinBritishships.
ShippingisalsoasignificantBritishsuccessstory.Itearnsover£1000millionayearinforeignexchangeearnings:
withoutourmerchantfleet,thebalanceofpaymentswouldbepermanentlyindeficit,despiteNorthSeaoil.But,todaythisvitalBritishindustryismoreinperilthaneverbefore.Onalmostallthemajorsearoutesoftheworld,theBritishfleetrisksbeingelbowedoutbystiffforeigncompetition.
Thethreatcomesfromtwomaindirections:
fromtheRussiansandtheEasternbloccountrieswhoarenowinthemiddleofamassiveexpansionoftheirmerchantnavies,andcarvingtheirwayintotheinternationalshippingtradebyseverelyundercuttingWesternshippingcompaines;andfromthemerchantfleetsofthedevelopingnations,whoarebentontakingoverthelion'sshareofthetradebetweenEuropeandAfrica,AsiaandtheFarEast--routesinwhichBritainhasabibstake.
Today,theBritishfleetnolongerdominatesthehighseas:
ourshareoftheworld'smerchantfleethasfallenfrom40percenttoaroundeightpercent.But,intermsoftonnage,theBritishmerchantnavyhascontinuedtoexpand,itcannowcarryovertwo-thirdsmorethanitcouldin1914,and,almostaloneamongourtraditionalindustries,shippinghasremainedamajorsuccessstory.
UnliketherestofBritishindustry,ship-ownersinvestedbig.Intheearly1960s,theshippingcompaniescashedinongovernmentgrantsandtaxconcessions.Between1966and1976,Britishshippinglinesinvestedatarateofover£1millionaday.Bytheearly1970s,itseemedthat,some-whereintheworld,anewBritishshipwasbeinglaunchedeveryweek.TheresultisthatBritainhasaverymodernfleet:
theaverageageofourmerchantshipsisonlysixyears,andoverhalfthefleetisunderfiveyearsold.Forsometimenow,Britishshippingmanagershavestayedaheadofthecompetitionbyinvestinginthemostsophisticatedships.
TheothermajorfactorwhichhasplayedakeyroleinthedominanceoftheBritishmerchantnavyisaninstitutioninventedbytheBritishwellover100yearsago:
the‘conference'.
Inthemiddleofthe19thcentury,competitionbetweensailing-shipsandsteam-shipsbecameout-throat,andpricecuttingruinedmanylong-establishedcompanies.Sotheshipownersgottogethertoestablishamoresettledsystem,andtheysetupasystemofpricefixing.Inotherwords,everypossibletypeofcargohadaprice,whichallownersagreedtocharge.Itwas,infact,acartel,thoughtheBritishshipownersgaveitthemoredignifiednameofa’conference'.Thesystemhascertainlystoodthetestoftime.Today,thereareabout300conferencesgoverningthetrade-routesoftheworld,andtheBritishstillplayamajorrole.
Byreducingcompetition,shippingconferenceshavetakensomeoftheriskoutofthedodgybusinessofmovinggoodsbysea.Theymakeitharder,perhaps,tomakeabigkillingingoodtimes,becauseyouhavetosharethetradewithotherconferencemembers.Buttheymakeiteasiertoweatherthebadtimes,becausethereisnomad,competitivescramblefortheavailabletrade.
Bytheearly1970s,badtimeswerejustaroundthecorner.Theworldshipbuildingboomreacheditspeakin1973,butthatwastheyearoftheArab-Israeliwar,whichwasfollowedrapidlybythequadruplingofoilprices.By1974,theindustrialisedworldhadbegunitsslideintotheworstdepressionsincethe1980s,andtheshippingindustryhadentereditslongyearsofcrisis.
Thefirsttobeaffectedweretheoil-tankerfleets.Asoildemandwascutback,charterratesplummeted,andtheestuariesoftheworldbecamejammedwiththesteadilyincreasingnumbersofmoth-balltankers.NorwayandGreecesufferedmost.Britishshipownershadnotbecomesoinvolvedinthetankerboominthefirstplace,sotheywerenotsobadlyaffected.By1976,theslumphadbeguntobiteintothebulk-carriertrade.Bulkcarriersareshipsthatcarrydrycargoofoneparticularkind,suchassugar,coalorwheat,withironorebeingbyfarthemostimportant.Butwiththeworldsteelindustrydeepinthedoldrums,whoneededironorecarriersWithitsbigbulk-carrierfleet,theBritishshippingindustrynowbegantofeelthepinch.
Eventhoughtheslumpspreadfastintomostshippingsectors,theBritishfleetwasstillalongwayfrombankruptcy.Theoneareawhichhasweatheredtheeconomicstormsbestisthatcontrolledbytheconferences:
thescheduledfreight-linerservices--andthatiswhereBritain'sfleetisstronglyentrenched.
Liner-freightvesselsofferpeoplewhowanttosendgoodsbyseaaregular,scheduledshippingservice;theyfollowagreedroutes,or‘lines',andcallatportsonagreeddates.Forexample,ifIwanttosendashipmentofsparetractorpartsfromTaiwantoBangkok,allIhavetodoiscontacttheFarEastFreightConference,andthatwillbeabletotellmewhenthenextlinershipwillbecallingatTaiwan,theexactdateonwhichitwillgettoBangkok,andthegoingfreightrate.Itisanideal‘parcel'serviceforpeoplewithcargoesthatarenotbigenoughtomakeitworthcharteringawholeship.
Itisalsoaplusfortheshipownersnottobedependentononlyonecustomer.Linershipscarryallsortsofdifferentcargoes--mainlyfinishedmanufacturedgoods--so,ifthereisaslumpinoneparticularindustry,providedthereisstillbuoyancyinotherindustries,thelinerfleetscanstillsurvive.Thatgivesthemadistinctadvantageoveroiltankersorbulkcarriers,becausethelatteraredependentononeortwobasicrawmaterials.ThatiswhyBritainhasremainedrelativelystrong.
MuchofBritain'slinerfleetrarelyseesaBritishport.Ourshipsareextensivecross-traders;thatis,theycarrygoodsbetweenforeigncountries.Britishcompaniesarebig,forexample,ontheJapan-to-Australiarun,andonthegrowingtraderoutesbetweentheFarEastandtheMiddleEast,aroundthePersianGulf.Untilrecently,thoserouteswerehighlyprofitablefortheBritishcompanies,andamajorsourceofforeigncurrencyforBritain.TheyarealsotheroutesonwhichtheThirdWorldandtheRussiansareouttomakethebiggestinroads.
MostemergingcountriesintheThirdWorldareouttocarryabiggershareoftheirtradeintheirownships.Developingcountriesregardamerchantnavyassomethingofastatussymbol--thenextthingtogoforafteranationalairline.Singaporehasexpandedtheirfleetby6000percentinthelast15years,Indiaby400percent.
ThechallengefromtheThirdWorldhasalwaysbeenforeseenbyourshippingcompanies.P&O,forexample,whilestillouttoincreasethetotalfreightitcarries,isplanningforagradualreductioninitspercentageshareofthetradewiththenewshippingpowersoftheThirdWorld.ButP&Ohasnointentionofthrowinginthetowel.Thekeytacticbehinditsstrategyofholdingontotherichestsliceofthetradehasbeentomoveup-market--togowheretheThirdWorldcannotfollow:
intohigh-technologyinvestment.
Containers,forexample,wereanAmericaninvention,butitwasBritishshipownerswhoputupthemoneytopioneertheinternationaldeep-seacontainerservice.Containerssavetime,becausetheloadingisdoneinthefactoryorwarehouse,ratherthanonthedockside,andtheyareverysecureagainsttheft;exceptforacodenumberontheoutside,thereisnoindicationofwhatisinsidethebox.Tocashinonthecontainerrevolution,youneedasophisticatedsystemofroadsandrailways,somethingthatmostThirdWorldcountriesdonothave:
Andcontainershipsareexpensive,around£50millioneach.
P&O'shigh-technology,high-investmentstrategy,however,isfarfrombeingthewholeanswertotheThirdWorldthreat.ThedevelopingcountriesarenotouttocompetewithWesternfleetsbycommercialmeans;theywanttoimposeasetofruleswhichwillguaranteethemamajorsliceoftheshippingtrade.ThisdemandhasfoundofficialexpressionintheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,UNCTAD.TheUNCTADlinercodelaysdownthatbetweentwotradingpartners,80percentofthefreightshouldbesplitequallybetweentheirrespectivemerchantfleets.Thatleavesonly20percenttogointothenumerouscross-traders,allfightingforashare,anditisonthesecross-tradesthatBritishlinercompaniesearn40percentoftheirrevenue.NotenoughcountrieshaveratifiedtheUNCTADcodeyettobringitintoforce.Butifitdoesbecomeuniversal,itcouldstrikeasevereblowtoBritain'slinertrade.
TheIronCurtaincountriesrepresentanevengreaterandmoreorganisedthreattothefutureofBritain'slinerships,anditisathreatthatismuchmoredifficulttocounter.
Russiahasexpandeditscargo-linerfleetfarfasterthanthegrowthineitheritsowntradeorworldtradewouldjustify.Today,ithasthelargestlinerfleetintheworldandanotheronemilliontonsshouldcomeintoservicebefore1980.Andwithitspolicyofexcessivelylowfreightrates,theRussianmerchantnavyhasalreadymademajorinroadsintoWesterntrade.
Russianowcarries95percentofitsseabornetradewiththeEECinitsownships.Moreimportant,itisbitingdeeplyintothemajorcross-tradingroutesoftheworld.Easternbloccountries--Russia,withPolandandEastGermany-havealreadycaptured20percentofthecargotrafficonthebusysea-lanesoftheNorthAtlantic,almost25percentofthetradebetwee