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itisalmostaforgottenindustry.Yetshippingistheessentiallifelineforthenation'
seconomy.Ninety-ninepercentofourtradeinandoutofthecountrygoesbyship—andoverhalfofitinBritishships.
ShippingisalsoasignificantBritishsuccessstory.Itearnsover£1000millionayearinforeignexchangeearnings:
withoutourmerchantfleet,thebalanceofpaymentswouldbepermanentlyindeficit,despiteNorthSeaoil.But,todaythisvitalBritishindustryismoreinperilthaneverbefore.Onalmostallthemajorsearoutesoftheworld,theBritishfleetrisksbeingelbowedoutbystiffforeigncompetition.
Thethreatcomesfromtwomaindirections:
fromtheRussiansandtheEasternbloccountrieswhoarenowinthemiddleofamassiveexpansionoftheirmerchantnavies,andcarvingtheirwayintotheinternationalshippingtradebyseverelyundercuttingWesternshippingcompaines;
andfromthemerchantfleetsofthedevelopingnations,whoarebentontakingoverthelion'
sshareofthetradebetweenEuropeandAfrica,AsiaandtheFarEast--routesinwhichBritainhasabibstake.
Today,theBritishfleetnolongerdominatesthehighseas:
ourshareoftheworld'
smerchantfleethasfallenfrom40percenttoaroundeightpercent.But,intermsoftonnage,theBritishmerchantnavyhascontinuedtoexpand,itcannowcarryovertwo-thirdsmorethanitcouldin1914,and,almostaloneamongourtraditionalindustries,shippinghasremainedamajorsuccessstory.
UnliketherestofBritishindustry,ship-ownersinvestedbig.Intheearly1960s,theshippingcompaniescashedinongovernmentgrantsandtaxconcessions.Between1966and1976,Britishshippinglinesinvestedatarateofover£1millionaday.Bytheearly1970s,itseemedthat,some-whereintheworld,anewBritishshipwasbeinglaunchedeveryweek.TheresultisthatBritainhasaverymodernfleet:
theaverageageofourmerchantshipsisonlysixyears,andoverhalfthefleetisunderfiveyearsold.Forsometimenow,Britishshippingmanagershavestayedaheadofthecompetitionbyinvestinginthemostsophisticatedships.
TheothermajorfactorwhichhasplayedakeyroleinthedominanceoftheBritishmerchantnavyisaninstitutioninventedbytheBritishwellover100yearsago:
the‘conference'
.
Inthemiddleofthe19thcentury,competitionbetweensailing-shipsandsteam-shipsbecameout-throat,andpricecuttingruinedmanylong-establishedcompanies.Sotheshipownersgottogethertoestablishamoresettledsystem,andtheysetupasystemofpricefixing.Inotherwords,everypossibletypeofcargohadaprice,whichallownersagreedtocharge.Itwas,infact,acartel,thoughtheBritishshipownersgaveitthemoredignifiednameofa’conference'
.Thesystemhascertainlystoodthetestoftime.Today,thereareabout300conferencesgoverningthetrade-routesoftheworld,andtheBritishstillplayamajorrole.
Byreducingcompetition,shippingconferenceshavetakensomeoftheriskoutofthedodgybusinessofmovinggoodsbysea.Theymakeitharder,perhaps,tomakeabigkillingingoodtimes,becauseyouhavetosharethetradewithotherconferencemembers.Buttheymakeiteasiertoweatherthebadtimes,becausethereisnomad,competitivescramblefortheavailabletrade.
Bytheearly1970s,badtimeswerejustaroundthecorner.Theworldshipbuildingboomreacheditspeakin1973,butthatwastheyearoftheArab-Israeliwar,whichwasfollowedrapidlybythequadruplingofoilprices.By1974,theindustrialisedworldhadbegunitsslideintotheworstdepressionsincethe1980s,andtheshippingindustryhadentereditslongyearsofcrisis.
Thefirsttobeaffectedweretheoil-tankerfleets.Asoildemandwascutback,charterratesplummeted,andtheestuariesoftheworldbecamejammedwiththesteadilyincreasingnumbersofmoth-balltankers.NorwayandGreecesufferedmost.Britishshipownershadnotbecomesoinvolvedinthetankerboominthefirstplace,sotheywerenotsobadlyaffected.By1976,theslumphadbeguntobiteintothebulk-carriertrade.Bulkcarriersareshipsthatcarrydrycargoofoneparticularkind,suchassugar,coalorwheat,withironorebeingbyfarthemostimportant.Butwiththeworldsteelindustrydeepinthedoldrums,whoneededironorecarriersWithitsbigbulk-carrierfleet,theBritishshippingindustrynowbegantofeelthepinch.
Eventhoughtheslumpspreadfastintomostshippingsectors,theBritishfleetwasstillalongwayfrombankruptcy.Theoneareawhichhasweatheredtheeconomicstormsbestisthatcontrolledbytheconferences:
thescheduledfreight-linerservices--andthatiswhereBritain'
sfleetisstronglyentrenched.
Liner-freightvesselsofferpeoplewhowanttosendgoodsbyseaaregular,scheduledshippingservice;
theyfollowagreedroutes,or‘lines'
andcallatportsonagreeddates.Forexample,ifIwanttosendashipmentofsparetractorpartsfromTaiwantoBangkok,allIhavetodoiscontacttheFarEastFreightConference,andthatwillbeabletotellmewhenthenextlinershipwillbecallingatTaiwan,theexactdateonwhichitwillgettoBangkok,andthegoingfreightrate.Itisanideal‘parcel'
serviceforpeoplewithcargoesthatarenotbigenoughtomakeitworthcharteringawholeship.
Itisalsoaplusfortheshipownersnottobedependentononlyonecustomer.Linershipscarryallsortsofdifferentcargoes--mainlyfinishedmanufacturedgoods--so,ifthereisaslumpinoneparticularindustry,providedthereisstillbuoyancyinotherindustries,thelinerfleetscanstillsurvive.Thatgivesthemadistinctadvantageoveroiltankersorbulkcarriers,becausethelatteraredependentononeortwobasicrawmaterials.ThatiswhyBritainhasremainedrelativelystrong.
MuchofBritain'
slinerfleetrarelyseesaBritishport.Ourshipsareextensivecross-traders;
thatis,theycarrygoodsbetweenforeigncountries.Britishcompaniesarebig,forexample,ontheJapan-to-Australiarun,andonthegrowingtraderoutesbetweentheFarEastandtheMiddleEast,aroundthePersianGulf.Untilrecently,thoserouteswerehighlyprofitablefortheBritishcompanies,andamajorsourceofforeigncurrencyforBritain.TheyarealsotheroutesonwhichtheThirdWorldandtheRussiansareouttomakethebiggestinroads.
MostemergingcountriesintheThirdWorldareouttocarryabiggershareoftheirtradeintheirownships.Developingcountriesregardamerchantnavyassomethingofastatussymbol--thenextthingtogoforafteranationalairline.Singaporehasexpandedtheirfleetby6000percentinthelast15years,Indiaby400percent.
ThechallengefromtheThirdWorldhasalwaysbeenforeseenbyourshippingcompanies.P&
O,forexample,whilestillouttoincreasethetotalfreightitcarries,isplanningforagradualreductioninitspercentageshareofthetradewiththenewshippingpowersoftheThirdWorld.ButP&
Ohasnointentionofthrowinginthetowel.Thekeytacticbehinditsstrategyofholdingontotherichestsliceofthetradehasbeentomoveup-market--togowheretheThirdWorldcannotfollow:
intohigh-technologyinvestment.
Containers,forexample,wereanAmericaninvention,butitwasBritishshipownerswhoputupthemoneytopioneertheinternationaldeep-seacontainerservice.Containerssavetime,becausetheloadingisdoneinthefactoryorwarehouse,ratherthanonthedockside,andtheyareverysecureagainsttheft;
exceptforacodenumberontheoutside,thereisnoindicationofwhatisinsidethebox.Tocashinonthecontainerrevolution,youneedasophisticatedsystemofroadsandrailways,somethingthatmostThirdWorldcountriesdonothave:
Andcontainershipsareexpensive,around£50millioneach.
P&
O'
shigh-technology,high-investmentstrategy,however,isfarfrombeingthewholeanswertotheThirdWorldthreat.ThedevelopingcountriesarenotouttocompetewithWesternfleetsbycommercialmeans;
theywanttoimposeasetofruleswhichwillguaranteethemamajorsliceoftheshippingtrade.ThisdemandhasfoundofficialexpressionintheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,UNCTAD.TheUNCTADlinercodelaysdownthatbetweentwotradingpartners,80percentofthefreightshouldbesplitequallybetweentheirrespectivemerchantfleets.Thatleavesonly20percenttogointothenumerouscross-traders,allfightingforashare,anditisonthesecross-tradesthatBritishlinercompaniesearn40percentoftheirrevenue.NotenoughcountrieshaveratifiedtheUNCTADcodeyettobringitintoforce.Butifitdoesbecomeuniversal,itcouldstrikeasevereblowtoBritain'
slinertrade.
TheIronCurtaincountriesrepresentanevengreaterandmoreorganisedthreattothefutureofBritain'
slinerships,anditisathreatthatismuchmoredifficulttocounter.
Russiahasexpandeditscargo-linerfleetfarfasterthanthegrowthineitheritsowntradeorworldtradewouldjustify.Today,ithasthelargestlinerfleetintheworldandanotheronemilliontonsshouldcomeintoservicebefore1980.Andwithitspolicyofexcessivelylowfreightrates,theRussianmerchantnavyhasalreadymademajorinroadsintoWesterntrade.
Russianowcarries95percentofitsseabornetradewiththeEECinitsownships.Moreimportant,itisbitingdeeplyintothemajorcross-tradingroutesoftheworld.Easternbloccountries--Russia,withPolandandEastGermany-havealreadycaptured20percentofthecargotrafficonthebusysea-lanesoftheNorthAtlantic,almost25percentofthetradebetwee