计量经济学stata英文论文.docx

计量经济学stata英文论文.docx

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计量经济学stata英文论文

Graduatestoapplyforthequantitativeanalysisofchangesinnumberofgraduatestudents

一Topicsraised

Inthispaper,thetotalnumberofstudentsfromgraduatestudents（variable）multivariateanalysis（seebelow）specificanalysis,andcollectrelevantdata,modelbuilding,thisquantitativeanalysis.Thenumberofrelationsbetweentheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththemajorfactors,accordingtothesizeofthevariousfactorsinthecoefficientinthemodelequations,analyzetheimportanceofvariousfactors,exactlywhatfactorsinchangesinthenumberofgraduatestudentsaspectsplayakeyroleinandchangesinthetrendforfuturegraduatestudentstoourproposal.

Themainfactorsaffectchangesinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforstudentsareasfollows：

PercapitaGDP-whichisaffectinganimportantfactortothetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents（graduateschoolisnotasmallcost,andonlyhaveacertaineconomicbasehavemoreopportunitiesforpost-graduate）

Thetotalpopulation-itwillaffectthetotalnumberofstudentsingraduatestudentsisanimportantfactor（itcanbesaidtoaffectitisbasedonsource）

Thenumberofunemployedpersons-thisistheimpactofadirectfactorofthetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents（itispreciselybecauseofthehighunemploymentrate,willmorepeoplechooseKaoyanwillbetheirownemploymentweights）

Numberofcollegesanduniversities-whichistoinfluencepreciselybecauseoftheemergenceofmoreinstitutionsofhigherlearningintheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsisnotasmallfactor（toallowmorepeopletoparticipateinKaoyan）

二EstablishModel

Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+u

Amongthem,the

Y-inthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents（variable）

X1-percapitaGDP（explanatoryvariables）

X2-thetotalpopulation（explanatoryvariables）

X3-thenumberofunemployedpersons（explanatoryvariables）

X4-thenumberofcollegesanduniversities（explanatoryvariables）

三、Datacollection

1.dateExplain

Here,usingthesamearea（ie,China）time-seriesdatawerefitted

2.Datacollection

Timeseriesdatafrom1986to2005,thespecificcircumstancesareshowninTable1

Table1：

Y

X1

X2

X3

X4

1986

11

07

264.4

1054

1987

12

300

276.6

1063

1988

112776

96.2

1075

1989

1

704

377.9

1075

199

14333

383.2

1075

199

15823

352.2

1075

1992

94164

2311

117171

363.9

1053

1993

1

8517

420.1

1065

1994

127935

4

6.4

1080

1995

21121

519.6

1054

1996

163322

5846

122389

552.8

1032

1997

176353

6420

123626

576.8

1020

1998

198885

6796

124761

571

1022

1999

2335

6

575

1071

2

58

126743

595

1041

2

225

2

98

128453

770

1396

2

542

129227

800

1552

2

336

129988

827

1731

2

04

92

四、Modelparameterestimation,inspectionandcorrection

1.Modelparameterestimationanditseconomicsignificance,statisticalinferencetest

twoway（scatterYX2）

twoway（scatterYX3）

twoway（scatterYX4）

graphtwowaylfityX1

graphtwowaylfityX2

graphtwowaylfityX3

graphtwowaylfityX4

Y=59.22454816*X1-7.158602346*X2-366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4

（6.352288）（3.257541）（157.9402）（46.72256）

t=（9.323341）（-2.197548）（-2.322889）（13.29839）

+270775.151

（369252.8）

（0.733306）

R2=0.996048AdjustedR-squared=0.994994F=945.1415DW=1.596173

Visible,X1,X2,X3,X4tvalues​​aresignificant,indicatingthatthepercapitaGDP,thetotalpopulationofregisteredurbanunemployedpopulation,thenumberofcollegesanduniversitiesarethemainfactorsaffectingthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsinschool.Modelcoefficientofdeterminationfor0.996048amendmentscoefficientofdeterminationof0.994994,wasrelativelylarge,indicatinghighdegreeofmodelfit,whiletheFvalueof945.1415,indicatingthatthemodeloverallissignificant。

Inaddition,thecoefficientofX1,X4,inlinewitheconomicsignificance,butthecoefficientofX2,X3,doesnotmeettheeconomicsignificance,becausefromaneconomicsense,withtheincreaseinthetotalpopulation（X2）,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsshouldbeincreased,andduetotheincreaseinthenumberofunemployed,therewillbemoreandmorepeoplechoosegraduateschool,sothatthetotalnumberofunemployedandgraduatestudentsshouldbepositivelycorrelated.X2,X3coefficientsigncontrarytoexpectations,whichmayindicatetheexistenceofseveremulticollinearity.

2.计量经济学检验

TheabovetablecanbeseentoexplainthepositivecorrelationbetweentheheightofthevariableX1andX2,X3,X4,X2,X1,X3,betweenthehighlypositivelycorrelated,showingthatthereisseriousmulticollinearity.Followingamendmentstepwiseregression：

Y=60.21976901*X1-61096.25048

（6.311944）（42959.23）

t=（9.540606）（-1.422191）

AdjustedR-squared=0.825725F=91.02316

Y=27.05878289*X2-2993786.354

（5.622791）（680596.9）

t=（4.812340）（-4.398766）

R-squared=0.562668F=23.15862

Y=1231.659997*X3-371863.6509

（161.9045）（90051.37）

t=（7.607324）（-4.129461）

AdjustedR-squared=0.749576F=57.87138

Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964

（65.85948）（79072.71）

t=（15.99648）（-12.20016）

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.8874

Theanalysisshowsthatthefoursimpleregressionmodel,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforthelinearrelationshipbetweenYcollegex4,goodnessoffit：

Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964

（65.85948）（79072.71）

t=（15.99648）（-12.20016）

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.887

Y=714.1694264*X4+25.58237739*X1-708247.7381

（48.45708）（2.930053）（45496.23）

t=（14.73818）（8.731029）（-15.56718）

AdjustedR-squared=0.986606F=700.7988

Y=886.3583756*X4+8.974091045*X2-1852246.686

（55.52670）（1.837722）（189180.7）

t=（15.96274）（4.883269）（-9.790886）

AdjustedR-squared=0.969430F=302.2581

Y=791.519267*X4+436.7502136*X3-885870.134

（69.64253）（90.10899）（55171.66）

t=（11.36546）（4.846910）（-16.05662）

AdjustedR-squared=0.969163F=299.5666

Bythedataanalysis,comparison,percapitaGDPofthenewentrantstotheX1equationoftheAdjustedR-squared=.986606

Thelargestimprovement,andeachparameter,T-testsignificant,soIchosetoretaintheX1

Thenaddtheothernewvariablestothestepwiseregression:

Y=570.3757921*X4+53.53863254*X1-12.18901747*X2+777507.8381

（46.57535）（6.618152）（2.747500）（336370.1）

t=（12.24630）（8.089665）（-4.436403）（2.311466）

AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753

Throughanalysis,wecanfind:

addanewvariableX2,X2coefficient-12.18901747,indicatinganegativecorrelationbetweenX2andY,butintherealeconomicsignificance,X2totalpopulation,andYnumberofgraduatestudentsapositivecorrelationbetweenthemoregeneraleconomicsignificanceofthetotalpopulation,theabsoluteamountofthenumberofgraduatestudentwillbemore.So,X2,shouldberemoved.

Y=700.5113451*X4+53.63805156*X1-597.614061*X3-534866.1749

（33.11564）（6.480707）（131.3478）（49101.16）

t=（12.24630）（8.089665）（-4.436403）（2.311466）

AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753

Similarly,addinganewvariableX3,itsparameterestimateisstillnegative,X3,representedbythenumberofunemploymentinurbanareas,theeconomicsignificance,themoreunemploymentinurbanareas,willencouragemoreandmorepeoplegotoPubMedinordertoachieveimprovetheirownquality,employabilityandopportunities.So,inreality,thetwoshouldbepositivelycorrelated,itshouldberemovedX3

3.Whitetest

Finalresultsofaseriesofinspectionandcorrection：

Y=-51055.44688+66.53070046*X1+382.1680346*X4

（9052.520）　　（9.443438）　　　　　　（78.77833）

t=（-5.639916）（7.045178）（4.851182）

AdjustedR-squared=0.921287F=106.3395　　ＤＷ＝1.627477

五、Analysisandconclusionsofthemodel

Itcanbeseenfromthemodel:

（1）model:

significantlycorrelatedonlywithcollegesanduniversitiestotalandpercapitaGDPinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents.

（2）X1,X4isinlinewitheconomicsignificanceofthetest.Economicsense,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththeincreaseinpercapitaGDPincreases,theincreasewiththeincreaseinthetotalnumberofuniversities.Anduniversitiesisthetotalimpactofthetotalnumberofthemostimportantfactorinthegraduatestudents.

（3）theamendmentofthemodelcoefficientofdeterminationandFvalues​​areveryhighgoodnessoffitofthemodelisgood