麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt

麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt

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OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITY,DoingBusinessinIraq,Amman,5thJune2003,AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,Totalarea:

437,000m2LimitedarablelandArableland:

11%Permanentcrops:

1%Desert:

88%LargestgovernatesBaghdad（8.0m）Nineveh（2.1m）Basra（2.0m）Varyingclimate（Baghdad）Summertemp:

35-50Wintertemp:

5-15Rainfall:

155mm/year,Source:

CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbook,Cartransport39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercars266,000privatelyregisteredtrucksAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdadKirkukIrbilBaghdadMosulYurubiyahBaghdadMaagalUmmQasrTelecom3%penetration,nomobilenetworkUtilities250watertreatmentfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityof9500（pre1990）,currentlyat1800MW,Geographyandclimate,Infrastructure,ThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesert,OVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHY,Source:

Worldoutlook,EIUcountryriskreportIraq,50%ofpopulationyoungerthan16years28%ofpopulationislaborforceApproximately51%males75%ofpopulationresidesinurbanareasThereisanestimated1m2mIraqislivinginexileFertilityrate4.55childrenperwomenAdultliteracyat54%1.5-2.5millionforeignworkers,Keyfacts,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2002,CAGR3%,DEVELOPMENTIRAQIPOPULATION1980TO2002,Iraqipopulationamountstomorethan24millions,Million,Source:

CIAworldfactbook,100%=24.2m,Others,Arabs-ShiaMuslims,KurdsSunniMuslims,4,62,12,ArabsSunniMuslims,22,ESTIMATE,POPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUP,ShiaMuslimsformIraqsethnicmajority,%,Adultliteracyat54%（vs.75%inIran）,*From6to23yearsSource:

EIUcountryprofileIraq2002,1980,1998,EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998,Anincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducation,ESTIMATE,Source:

CountryWatch,Provenreserves,Unprovenpotential,Total,GasTrillionm3,2001,OilBillionbarrels,2001,OVERVIEWOFIRAQSNATURALOILANDGASRESERVES,Iraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreserves,ESTIMATE,Source:

BPStatisticalreview,2002,1.SaudiArabia,2.Iraq,3.UAE,4.Kuwait,5.Iran,Oil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001,Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,2001,1.Russia,2.Iran,3.Qatar,4.SaudiArabia,5.UAE,10.Iraq,RANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDE,whicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingas,ESTIMATE,*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:

CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003,2002,50-60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*-1980TO2002,Overthepastdecade,IraqsrealGDPfellby50%,USDbillion,ESTIMATE,-50%,GDPestimatesfor2002subjecttowidevariation（USD24-60billion）,*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:

CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch,2002,3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002,andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurther,USDthousands,GDP/capitaestimatessubjecttowidevariation（USD1.000-2.500）,-70%,Source:

GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPDEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,IraqhassufferedasignificantreductioninGDPoverlast25years,inbillionUSDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,Source:

GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITADEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,Inthelate70tiesIraqsGDPpercapitawasatparwithSaudiArabia,in000USDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:

EIUcountryprofileIraq,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,SaudiArabia,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002,IraqscurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIran,USDthousands,Source:

Economistintelligenceunit2002;OANDA.COM,Iraqiinflationrates%,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,ExchangeratesIraqiDinarperUSD（blackmarketrate）,Hugebudgetdeficitsleadto“printingofmoney”,BUT:

OfficialexchangeratehasbeenID0,31totheUSDsince1983,2001,2002,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,CurrentexchangerateID900-1.000=1USD,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFINFLATIONANDEXCHANGERATES1996TO2002,Iraqhasshownhighinflationcoupledwithstrongdepreciationofthecurrency,Source:

EIUcountrydata,Externaldebt$bn,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,%ofGPD,60-130,MaincausesofuncertaintyareAccruedinterest“Assistance”fundsinIran-IraqwarClaimsfollowingGulfwar1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001,Iraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankrupt,*Estimatesrangefrom$103.4$129.4bnSource:

Reuters;InstituteforinternationalEconomics,25,18,13,10,SaudiArabia,GulfStatesexcl.Kuwait,Kuwait,ParisClubexclRussia,France,8,Russia,8,France,2,USA,3,CommercialBankCreditors,2,Bulgaria,2,Poland,Czech,Romania,1,MultilateralInstitutions,1,Yugoslavia,2,TradeClaims,24,Others,Totalexternaldebt,119*,14-25,Kuwaitreparationpayments,133144,Totalclaims,IraqregardedtheloansfromSaudiArabiaandKuwaitasgrantpaymentsforits1980waragainstIran,Comments,Creditor,Amountprincipalandoverdueinterest,ESTIMATE,BREAKDOWNOFIRAQILIABILITIES2001,IraqsliabilitiesaremainlyloansfromtheGulfstatesgrantedtoIraqinthe80tiesduringthewarwithIran,（USDbn）,TheIMFandWorldBankareowedlessthan$200m,Source:

EIUCountryprofileIraq2002,France,Australia,China,Jordan,Top5importsources,Top5exportdestinations,U.S.,France,Jordan,Italy,Spain,Italy,Mainlyoilexportswithinthefoodforoilprogram,MAJORIRAQITRADINGPARTNERS-2001,Franceismostimportantsupplier,theUSmostimportantcustomerofIraqiproducts,USDmillion,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopments,Source:

McKinsey,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,IraqsIntheWorldClassscenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,Non-oilSectors,+,*）Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:

McKinsey,GDPdevelopment2003-2013（inbnUSD）,GDPpercapita*2003-2013（in000USD）,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEPOTENTIALDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,InthedistinctivescenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,COMPARISONOFIRAQWITHSAUDIARABIA,Source:

GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,GDPpercapitacomparison000USD,GDPcomparisonbnUSD,65,145,20,155,30,225,5,16,1,10,1,10,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,1980,1990,2003,1980,1990,2003,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,*Assumingacapitalproductivityof0.2Source:

McKinseyanalysis,GDP2003（bnUSD）,30,ESTIMATEOFREQUIREDINVESTMENTSINTOIRAQOVERTHENEXTDECADE,ToachievetheWorldClassscenarioIraqseconomyrequiresUSD250-350billionininvestments,mostofwhichwillhavetobeFDI,overthenextdecade,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,Assuminganaveragecapitalproductivityof0.2,Source:

GlobalInsight;McKinseyanalysis,Oilandgas,Construction,Community,socialandpersonalservices,Agriculture,Retail/Wholesale,Communicationincl.telecom,Manufacturing,Transportation,Financialservicesincl.Realestate,Other（incl.Utilities）,Sectorsize-2008,ShareofGDPin%in2008,60,10,7,5,5,4,3,3,2,1,34-42,6,4,3,3,2-3,2,1-2,1,1,100,ESTIMATEDPOTENTIALSECTORSIZE,By2008,IraqseconomyislikelytocontinuetobedominatedbytheOil/gassector,ESTIMATE,bnUSD,57-67,Total,Scenario2:

GDPgrowthrateat11-13%,GDPasanindicatorofthecapabilityofaneconomytoaddvalue,Source:

GlobalInsight,McKinseyanalysis,By2010IraqcangenerateannualoilrevenuesofaboutUSD44billion（assuming80%exportandapriceofUSD20perbarrel）,Source:

PFCEconomy,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Raisingproductionto6mb/drequiresUSD30-35billionofinvestments,RehabilitatingofexistinginfrastructurewillrequireUSD3-6billionofinvestments,ESTIMATE,ESTIMATEDIRAQIOILPRODUCTION,IncreasingIraqsoilcapacitywillrequiresignificantinvestments,mbarrelperday,Source:

McKinsey,EstimatesforrebuildingIraqvaryfromabout$20billionayearforseveralyearstoasmuchas$600billionoveradecadebecausethescaleofreconstructionisdifficulttoestimate,ESTIMATE,RebuildingIraqsbasichardinfrastructurewillbechallengingandwillrequiresubstantialinvestmentsoverthenextdecade,ESTIMATEDINVESTMENTRQUIREMENTS,Source:

McKinsey,UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense,USAIDWebsite,USAIDCONTRACTS/GRANTS,AwardedcontractsandgrantsPersonnelSupport（AwardedtoInternationalResourcesGroup,7/2/03）SeaportAdministration（AwardedtoStevedoringServicesofAmerica,24/3/03）PrimaryandSecondaryEducation（AwardedtoCreativeAssociates,11/4/03）LocalGovernance（AwardedtoResearchTriangleInstitute,11/4/03）CapitalConstruction（AwardedtoBechtel,17/4/03）TheaterLogisticalSupport（Inter-agencyagreementawardedtotheAirForceContractAugmentationProgram（AFCAP）on17/2/03）AirportAdministration（awardedtoSkyLinkAirandLogisticssupporton5/5/2003）PublicHealth（AwardedtoAbtAssociates,30/4/03）BacktoSchoolCampaign（AwardedtoUNICEF,8/4/03）HealthWaterandSanitationServices（AwardedtoUNICEFon28/3/03）HealthStrengtheningSystems（AwardedtoWHO,28/3/03）CommunityActionProgram（Awardedtonumberofrelieforganizationsincl.MercyCorps,IRD,SavetheChildrenFederation,27/05/2003）,NOTCOMPREHENSIVE,UptoUSD680million,UptoUSD168million,UptoUSD63million,UASAIDhasawardedannumberofcontractsandthereareaboutUSD6.7billioninfundsavailabletorebuildIraq,Availablefundsources:

USD1.7billionoffrozenIraqigovernmentassetsintheUS.USD700millionofIraqigovernmentcashseizedinIraq.USD1.9billioninpledgesfromtheinternationalcommunityandotherassistanceoffers.USD2.5billionappropriatedfromUSCongressforreconstruction.,Source:

McKinsey,Createanenablingandopenec