工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究.docx

工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究.docx

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工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究

毕业设计（论文）

外文翻译

题目

金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究

DeterminantsofUSinvestmentinrealestateabroad

FariborzMoshirian*,Toan

PhamSchoolofBanking&Finance,TheUni6ersityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,NSW2052,Australia

Received22January1998;accepted22April1999

Abstract：

ThepurposeofthispaperistoanalyseanddiscussthosefactorswhicharecontributingtotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestate.TheempiricalresultsofthismodelofFDIinrealestateshowthatasUSforeignfinancialliabilitiesincrease,thereisanaccompanyingincreaseinitsFDIinrealestate.ThisresultisconsistentwiththestudybyRussekh,F.,Ruffin,R.,1986.TheroleofforeigndirectinvestmentinUScapitalflows.Am.Econ.Rev.76,1127–1130,whoshowedthatUSFDIabroadisasubstituteforUSfinancialassets.Furthermore,theempiricalresultsindicatethatasreturnsfromtheUSstockmarketdecline,therearemoreincentivesforUSinvestorstoinvestinforeignrealestate.TheempiricalresultsalsoshowthatUSfinancialwealth,USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingandUSbilateraltradecontributepositivelytotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestate.©2000ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.

Keywords:

Realestate;Foreigndirectinvestment;Stockmarket

1.Introduction

Sincetheearly1980s,accordingtotheWorldInvestmentReport（UnitedNations,1997）,world-wideflowsofforeigndirectinvestment（FDI）havegrownatunprecedentedrates,toreachatotaloutflowofabout$420billionin1996.TheannualaveragegrowthrateofFDIhasbeen33%between1987and1996whichfarexceededthatofmerchandiseexports（12%）andnominalGDP（12%）.

USFDIabroadiscategorisedintoseveralindustries.OneofthecategoriesofUSFDIabroadisFDIinrealestate,asopposedtoFDIinmanufacturing,banking,etc.WhileitisobservedthatUSFDIinrealestateissmall,ithasincreasedbymorethanfourtimesovertheperiod1985–1997.TherearefivemajorcountriesinwhichtheUShasinvestedinrealestate.TheseareCanada,theUK,Mexico,FranceandItaly.In1997,almost39%oftheUSFDIabroadinrealestatewasintheUK,21%inCanada,12%inMexico,3%inFranceand3%inItaly.

Realestateinvestmenthaslongbeenconfinedtomarketswithwhichinvestorsarefamiliar.InternationaldiversificationwasnotontheagendaasWebb（1984）foundinacomprehensivesurveyofUSinstitutionalinvestors’attitudesinthe1970sandearly1980s.Theyappearedtodiversifyonlyoverdifferentpropertytypesandregionswithintheirhomecountry.However,inthe1980sgrowingamountsofmoneywerebeinginvestedabroadinmanyindustries,includingrealestate.ThisisthefirststudyofFDIinrealestatewhichattemptstoprovideananalysisandanexplanationforthedeterminantsofUSinvestmentinrealestateabroadovertheperiod1985–1995.TheunpublishedquarterlydataonUSFDIinrealestate,manufacturingandbankingmakesuchastudypossible.AccordingtoanunofficialdefinitionoftheUSDepartmentofCommerce,FDIinrealestatecoversinvestmentbyUSprivateinvestorsinrealestateincludingdomicile,commercialbuilding1.

Thepaperisstructuredasfollows:

Section2reviewssomeoftherelevantliteratureinFDI;Section3proposesvariousfactorswhichcoulddetermineUSFDIinrealestate;Section4modelsUSFDIinrealestate;Section5describesthesourcesofdataandthemethodologyusedinthispaper;Section6reportstheempiricalfindings;andSection7makessomeconcludingremarks.

2.Literaturereview

TherehavebeenanumberofstudiesonFDIingeneral,inmanufacturing,bankingandinsurance.However,therehasnotbeenastudyofFDIinrealestate.ThissectionofpaperintendstosurveysomeofthemostrelevantFDIstudieswhicharerelevanttoFDIinrealestate2.

Williams（1997）recentlysurveyedvariousestablishedtheoriesofFDIinthecontextofmultinationalbanking.InthissurveyhediscussedmajorFDItheoriessuchastheinternationalinvestmenttheory,theeclectictheoryandtheindustrialorganisationhypothesis;however,moststudiesofFDIhavebeenbasedontheeclectictheoryasameansofmeasuringthemostsignificantdeterminantsofFDI.SomestudiesofFDIhavehighlightedoneortwoasthemaindeterminantsofFDIabroad.Forinstance,studiesbyCushman（1987）,andFrootandStein（1991）identifiedtheeffectsofexchangeratesonFDIasthemaindeterminantfactorforFDIabroad.StudiessuchasNigh（1986）arguedthatthesizeofthemarketinthehostcountryisthemostsignificantfactorforFDIabroad.SchneiderandFrey（1985）consideredthebalanceofpaymentasthemostsignificantdeterminantofFDIabroad.Furthermore,somestudiesfoundmorethanonefactorasthemajordeterminantsofFDIabroad.StudiessuchasCulem（1988）foundthatthehostmarketsize,themarketgrowthrate,unitlaborcost,tradeflowsandeconomiesofscalearethemajordeterminantsofFDIabroad.

Inadditiontotheabovestudies,somespecificstudiessuchasGoldbergandJohnson（1990）andGrossandGoldberg（1991）weremadeintheareaofforeignbanks’activitieswhereanumberofhypothesessuchascostofcapital,marketsize,exchangerate,economicgrowthandtradewerefoundasthemajordeterminantsofFDIinbanking.Ascanbeseenfromtheabovestudies,mostofthestudiesofFDIhaveselectedcertainfactorsasthemostrelevantcontributorstotheFDIabroad.ThisisconsistentwiththeeclectictheoryofFDI.Inthisstudy,asintheabovestudies,anumberoffactorswhichappeartobethemostsignificantcontributorstotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestateasopposedtoFDIingeneralormanufacturingwillbeidentified.

3.FactorscontributingtoUSFDIinrealestateabroad

Inthissection,hypothesesbasedmainlyontheeclectictheorywillbeusedtoestimateFDIinrealestate.ThefirststepistoselectthosefactorswhichappeartobethemaindeterminantsofUSFDIinrealestateabroadonthebasisoftherecentliteratureaboutUSFDIingeneral,manufacturing,bankingandinsuranceabroad.ThefollowingfactorshavebeenselectedforUSFDIinrealestateabroad:

（1）USfinancialwealth,

（2）returnsfromtheUSstockmarket,（3）USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingabroad,（4）USforeignfinancialliabilities,（5）USbilateraltradeand（6）relativeeconomicgrowth.ThefirstfourfactorsarespecifictoFDIinrealestate,whereasthelastthreefactorsaregeneralfactorspertinenttoFDIingeneral.Theremainingpartofthissectionwilldiscusstheabovefactors.

3.1.Financialwealth

Existingincomeandwealtharethetwomajordeterminantsofthelikelihoodofacountryaccumulatingfurtherforeignanddomesticassets.AnumberofresearchersincludingBransonandHill（1970）,RussekhandRuffin（1986）andUeda（1990）usedwealthasasourceofallocatingfinancialassetsbetweendomesticandforeignassets.RussekhandRuffin（1986）usedwealthasoneofthefactorsdeterminingtheamountofUSforeignassetsabroad.Furthermore,Ueda（1990）showedthatJapan’swealthhasbeenoneofthemajorcausesofexpansionofherforeignfinancialassets.Inthisstudy,itisalsoassumedthatUSfinancialwealthisallocatedbetweendomesticandforeignassets.Thus,itisexpectedthatUSFDIinrealestateabroad,asacomponentofUSforeigndirectinvestment,shouldberelatedtoUSfinancialwealth.Thestockoffinancialwealthisallocatedbetweendomesticandforeignassetsonthebasisofvariousfactorsincludingexpecteddomesticandforeignrateofreturns.Thus,giventhefindingsofRussekhandRuffin（1986）abouttherelationshipbetweenUSgeneralFDIandherwealth,andthefindingsofUeda（1990）inwhichacloselinkbetweenfinancialwealthandtheaccumulationofforeignassetswasobserved,thefirsthypothesistobetestediswhetherUSfinancialwealthaffectstheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestateabroad.

3.2.ReturnsfromtheUSstockmarket

AnotherhypothesistobetestedistherelationshipbetweenUSFDIinrealestateandreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.ItisexpectedthatUSFDIinrealestateabroadisnegativelyrelatedtocontemporaneousreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.ThisismotivatedbythefindingofWarther（1985）thataggregatemutualfundflowsintostocksandbondsarepositivelyrelatedtotheirconcurrentreturnsandnegativelyrelatedtotheirpastreturns.However,Warther（1985）findsthatmutualfundinvestorsinducepermanentratherthantransitorypricechangesindicatingthatfundinvestorsdonotmerelycreatehaphazardmovementsinsecurityprices.Theyappeartotradeoninformationor,atleast,tradeinthesamedirectionasthosewhopossessrelevantinformation.Thus,investorsentimentsdonotseemsounsophisticated,contrarytothefindingsinarelatedworkbyLeeetal.（1991）.Inthisstudy,itisarguedthatasreturnsfromtheUSstockmarketfall,therearemoreincentivestoinvestabroadinrealestate.Thus,thehypothesistobetestediswhetherUSFDIinrealestateabroadisnegativelycorrelatedtoreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.TheStandardandPoor’s500IndexisusedasaproxytomeasurereturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.

3.3.USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingabroad

Apositiverelationshiphasgenerallybeenfoundbetweenabank’sforeignexpansionandFDIfromotherindustries,particularlymanufacturing.Therationaleforthis,accordingtoanumberofresearchers,isthatmultinationalbankswillfollowtheirmultinationalcustomersabroadsothattheycanprovideservicesfortheircustomers’foreignoperations.Thetheoreticaljustificationofthefollow-the-clienthypothesisappliedtobanksisprovidedbyGrubel（1977）.Supportingevidenceforthishypothesisisreported