燃煤发电成本中英文对照外文翻译文献.docx

燃煤发电成本中英文对照外文翻译文献.docx

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燃煤发电成本中英文对照外文翻译文献

中英文对照外文翻译

（文档含英文原文和中文翻译）

外文文献:

Coal-FiredGenerationCostandPerformanceTrends

IncreasingregulatoryrequirementsandafocusonreducingcarbonemissionsintheU.S.havesignificantlyreducedthenumberofnewcoal-firedplantsunderdevelopmentcomparedwithpastyears.Inaddition,projectedcapitalcostsfornewcoal-firedplantshaverisensharplyinthepastyear,whilethosefornaturalgascombined-cycleandcombustionturbineshavestayedrelativelyflat.Inordertokeepcoalaviableenergysource,manycountries,includingtheU.S.,areseekingwaystoimproveplantefficiencywhilereducingcarbonemissions.

Coal-firedgeneration,bothexistingandproposed,isunderheavypressureto“cleanupitsact”ifitwantstoremainaviablefuelforpowergeneration.ThelatestU.S.EnergyInformationAssociation（EIA）predictionsofU.S.electricitygenerationestimatethatthepercentageofU.S.electricitygeneratedbythecombustionofcoalwilldeclineby2%,from45%to43%,between2009and2035

TheEIAAnnualEnergyOutlook2011（AEO）referencecaseestimatesthat21GW（suppliedbyapproximately30to35newunits）willbeaddedduringthisroughly25-yearperiodandthatcoalwillremainthedominantenergysourceintheabsenceofanyfederallymandatedpolicytoreducecarbonemissions.Manyindustryobserversconsiderthisa“best-case”scenario,asthecontinueduncertaintyoverfutureemissionregulationscontinuestodampeninterestincommittingtonewcoal-firedgenerationprojects.

TheAEO2011referencecasealsoseesaheavyrelianceontheexistingcoal-firedfleettomeetthenation’selectricitydemandinfutureyears.Undoubtedly,wherepossible,plantownerswillcontinuemakinginvestmentstoimprovetheoperatingefficiencyoftheexistingfleet.Apleasantsidebenefitofimprovedplantefficiencyisareductionincarbondioxideemissions.However,asnewgenerationcomesonlinetomeetthepredictedincreaseinelectricitydemand,less-efficientolderunitsthatcannotbeeconomicallymodifiedtomeetmorestringentemissionrequirementswilllikelyberetired.

TheExistingCoal-FiredFleet

Thecurrentportfolioofcoal-firedgenerationintheU.S.wasashadeover338GWofinstallednameplatecapacityfor1.436unitsattheendof2009,thelastfullyearforwhichEIAdataisavailable.Theseunitsaregenerallyconventionalpulverizedcoal（PC）plantsbasedoneithersubcritical（80%oftheunits）orsupercritical（20%）boilertechnology.

Ingeneral,threeconventionalboilertechnologiesarenowavailablefornewconstruction:

■Subcriticalsteamgeneratorsoperateatsteampressurelessthanthecriticalpointofwater—3,208poundspersquareinch（psi）.

■Conventionalsupercriticalsteamgeneratorsoperatewithsteampressuregreaterthan3,208psiandsteamtemperaturesgenerallyinthe1,000Fto1.050Frange.

■Ultrasupercritical（USC）steamgenerators,thelatestgenerationofadvancedsupercriticaldesignunits,operateatsteampressuresgreaterthan3,208psiandsteamtemperaturesgreaterthan1,1OOF.

Currently,noUSCunitsareoperatingintheU.S.;however,AmericanElectricPowerisbuildinga600-MWUSCunit,scheduledforcompletioninlate2012,attheTurksiteinArkansas.

FollowtheData

Thedatasourceforouranalysisofexistingcoal-firedplantcostandperformancetrendsisNavigant’sproprietaryGenerationKnowledgeService,orGKSFossildatabase.Datafrom459coalunitstotaling165GWofcapacitywas

1.Electricitygenerationbyfuel,1990-2035.Dataisshownasnetelectricitygeneration.Sources:

HistoricaldatafromEIA,AnnualEnergyReview2009;projectionsfromNationalEnergyModelingSystem,runREF2011,D120810C

studiedfortheperiod2005-2009.Non-fueloperationsandmaintenance（NFOM）costdataincludesbothexpenseandreplacementcapital.Alldataissubjectedtoarigorousvalidationprocesstoensure

dataqualityandcomparability

Thedatabaseresultsarebasedontwoimportantassumptions.First,allcalculationsaregeneration-weightedvalues（MWh,forexample）,notnameplate-weighted（MW）.Also,plantefficiencyoveradefinedperiodisbasedonthequotientofnetgenerationconverted（inBtu）andtotalfuelconsumed,usingthehigherheatingvalue（HHV）ofthefuel,asistheconventionintheU.S.Somecountriesusethelowerheatingvalueofthefueltocalculateplantthermalefficiency,whichresultsinahighervaluethanwhenusingtheHHV.

WebeginourevaluationofcostandperformancedatafortheexistingPCfleetbyfirstsegmentingthelargenumberofsub-criticalplantsinthefleetintotwogroupsbasedonnameplatecapacity.Laterinthisarticle,wewillusethesedatagroupings,plustheexistingsupercriticaldata,asastartingpointforpredictingfuturecostandperformancetrends.ThethreeplantdatagroupingsusedinthisanalysisaresmallsubcriticalPCunitslessthan500MW,largesubcriticalPCunitsequaltoorgreaterthan500MW,andsupercriticalPCunitsequaltoorgreaterthan500MW

AsshowninTable1,boththelargesubcriticalandlargesupercriticalunitsenjoyasignificantNFOMcostadvantageoversmallsubcriticalunits,dueprimarilytothesizeadvantagesandhighercapacityfactorsthelargerplantsenjoy.NFOMcostsforsupercriticalunitsareonaverageabout$0.90/MWh,or12.8%,higherthanforlargesubcriticalunits。

Availabilityfactorsarealsohigherforbothsizesofsubcriticalunitsthanforsupercriticalunits;largesubcriticalunitsboastthehighestavailabilitynumbers.Availabilityforsupercriticalunitsismorethan2%lowerthanforlargesubcriticalunits.Itisnotunusualforsmallsubcriticalunitstorunwithloweravailabilitiesthanlargesubcriticalones,asassetownerstendtodirectalargerportionoftheirfinancialresourcestothemore-efficient,higher-capacity-factorunits.Thoughsupercriticalunitstendtohaveslightlyhigherplannedoutagefactorsthanlargesubcriticalunits,themajordifferenceinavailabilityisthehigherforcedoutageratesexperiencedbysupercriticalunits

Themajoradvantageofsupercriticalunitsistheirhighercycleefficiencies.Table1alsoshowsthatsupercriticalunitefficiencyisnearly1.5%higherthanthatoflargesubcriticalunitsandmorethan2%higherthanthatofsmallsubcriticalunits.Becausetheefficiencycalculationsusedbythedatabasearebasedonoperatingefficiencyratherthanperformancetestefficiency,theimpactofstart-upsandshutdowns,loadfollowing,aridthelike,areautomaticallyfactoredintothedata,whichwillappearaslower-than-expecteddesignorbase-load-typeoperation

Theimpactofthegeneraleconomicmalaiseoverthepastthreeyearsandincreasedrelianceongas-firedgenerationappearsasadownwardtrendincapacityfactor.Theseeffectsalsocompoundtoproduceanetdropinaveragecoal-firedplantoperatingefficiencyoverthesameperiod（Figure2）.Thenetdropinaverageefficiencyisgreatestforsupercriticalunits（-0.7%）,followedbylargesubcriticalunits（-0.2%）andsmallsubcriticalunits（-0.4%）.Thissuggeststhatitmaybemoredifficultforsupercriticalunitstoadapttorunningatlowercapacityfactorsthanforsubcriticalunits.Thisisanimportantpoint:

ThemainadvantagesupercriticalunitshaveistheirhighercycleefficienciesthatmorethanbalanceouthigherNFOMcostsandloweroperatingavailabilitycomparedwithlargesubcriticalunits.

RisingCapitalConstructionCosts

Capitalcostsforcoal-firedgenerationarerisingsharply.AreviewofrecentlycompletedprojectsemployingbothsubcriticalandsupercriticaltechnologyisshowninTable2

Despiteasmallsamplesize,thedatainTable2providesarelativeindicationofrecentcapitalconstructioncostsforbothtypesofunits.Fornew-buildunits,thecapitalcostestimatesprovidedinNovember2010bytheEIA（basedonestimatesdevelopedforitbyexternalconsultantR.W.Beck）areusefulforshowingtheleveltowhichcostsareescalating,especiallycomparedwithalternativessuchasgas-firedgeneration.Table3showstheEIAcostestimatesforbothsingle-unitanddual-unitadvancedPCunits,withandwithoutcarboncaptureandsequestration（CCS）,aswellasanadvancednaturalgascombined-cycle（NGCC）unitforcomparison

2.Existingcoal-firedfleetperformancetrends,2005-2009.Source:

Navigan

Availabilitytrends

Table1.Comparisonofexistingcoal-firedtechnologyperformancemetrics,usingfive-yearaveragedate（2005-2009）.Plantefficiencyiscalculatedusingnetgenerationdividedbyactualfuelconsumed,therebyincludingtheeffectsofplantcyclingandload.

following.Source:

Navigant

Technology

Numberofunits

Totalnameplatecapacity（MW）

NFOM（S/MWH）

EAF（%）

Plantthermalefficiency%（HHV）

Smallsubcritical（<500MW）

308

58,552

11.1

85.5

32.5

Largesubcritical（>500MW）

75

48,590

7.0

86.4

33.3

Supercritical（>500MW）

76

60,118

7.9

84.1

34.7

Note:

EAF=equivalentavailabilityfactor,HHV=highheatingvalue,NFOM=non-fueloperationandmaintenance

AdvancedPCtechnologyconsistsofaconventionalsupercriticalboileroperatingat3,700psiand1,050FsteamconditionsatthetuArbineinlet,singlereheat,coolingtower,selectivecatalyticreduction,bag-house,andwetfluegasdesulfurization（alladvancedairqualitycontroltechnologies）.

NoestimatesforsubcriticalboilerdesignwereprovidedbytheEIA.AlthoughCCStechnologyisnotspecificallydiscussedinthisarticle,itisimportanttonotethatestimateswiththeCCSoptiondemonstratehowaddingCCSimpactsperformance（+36%increaseinheatrate,reflectingthehugeauxiliaryloadincreases）andinstalledcost（+61%）.

Table2.Theinstalledcostforseveralrecentlycompl