Economics AZ 经济学术语Word文件下载.docx

Economics AZ 经济学术语Word文件下载.docx

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debt 

marketsthanonbankstofundtheirinvestment,isbetterthanonesuchas,say,Germany,inwhichbankshavetraditionallybeenthemainsourceofcorporatefinance.

Bankscomeinmanydifferentforms.Commercialbanks,alsoknownasretailbanks,caterdirectlyforthegeneralpublicandlendto（mostlysmallandmedium-sized）firms.Inthepast,theydidsolargelythroughanetworkofbankbranches,althoughincreasinglythesearegivingwaytoatmmachines,thetelephoneandtheInternet.Wholesalebankslargelytransactwithotherbanksandfinancialinstitutions.Investmentbanks,alsoknownasmerchantbanks,concentrateonraisingmoneyforcompaniesfromprivateinvestorsorinthefinancialmarkets,byfindingbuyersfortheirequityandcorporate 

bonds.Universalbanksdomostoralloftheaboveincluding,throughbancassurance,sellinginsurance.ThesebankshavelongbeenafeatureofcontinentalEuropeaneconomies.However,intheUnitedStatesfinanciallawssuchastheGlass-SteagallActhaveseparateddifferentformsofbankingfromeachotherandkeptbanksoutoftheinsurancebusiness.Theselawswereabolishedin1999,althoughduringtheprecedingcoupleofdecadesregulatorseffectivelydismantledthembychangingthewaytheywereapplied.Evenso,becauseoftheseandotherlaws,whichformanyyearsstoppedbanksfromoperatingacrossstateborders,theUnitedStateshasfarmorelendinginstitutionsthanothercountries.In2003therewereoverfourlendinginstitutionsper100,000peopleintheUnitedStates,comparedwithfewerthanoneper100,000intheUKandFrance.

Behaviouraleconomics

Abranchof 

economics 

thatconcentratesonexplainingtheeconomicdecisionspeoplemakeinpractice,especiallywhentheseconflictwithwhatconventionaleconomictheorypredictstheywilldo.Behaviouriststrytoaugmentorreplacetraditionalideasofeconomicrationality（homoeconomicus）withdecision-makingmodelsborrowedfrompsychology.Accordingtopsychologists,peoplearedisproportionatelyinfluencedbyafearoffeelingregretandwilloftenforgobenefitseventoavoidonlyasmallriskoffeelingtheyhavefailed.Theyarealsopronetocognitivedissonance,oftenholdingontoabeliefplainlyatoddswithnewevidence,usuallybecausethebeliefhasbeenheldandcherishedforalongtime.Thenthereisanchoring:

peopleareoftenoverlyinfluencedbyoutsidesuggestion.Peopleapparentlyalsosufferfromstatusquobias:

theyarewillingtotakebiggergamblestomaintainthestatusquothantheywouldbetoacquireitinthefirstplace.

Traditional 

utility 

theoryassumesthatpeoplemakeindividualdecisionsinthecontextofthebigpicture.Butpsychologistshavefoundthattheygenerallycompartmentalise,oftenonsuperficialgrounds.Theythenmakechoicesaboutthingsinoneparticularmentalcompartmentwithouttakingaccountoftheimplicationsforthingsinothercompartments.

Thereislotsofevidencethatpeoplearepersistentlyandirrationallyoverconfident.Theyarealsovulnerabletohindsightbias:

oncesomethinghappenstheyoverestimatetheextenttowhichtheycouldhavepredictedit.Manyofthesetraitsarecapturedin 

prospecttheory,whichisattheheartofmuchofbehaviouraleconomics.

Bonds

Gentlemenpreferbonds,punnedAndrewMellon,anAmericantycoon.Abondisan 

interest-bearing 

security 

issuedbygovernments,companiesandsomeotherorganisations.Bondsareanalternativewayfortheissuertoraisecapitaltosellingsharesortakingouta 

bankloan.Likesharesinlistedcompanies,oncetheyhavebeenissuedbondsmaybetradedontheopenmarket.Abond'

s 

yield 

isthe 

interestrate 

（orcoupon）paidonthebonddividedbythebond'

smarket 

price.Bondsareregardedasalower 

risk 

investment. 

government 

bonds,inparticular,arehighlyunlikelytomisstheirpromisedpayments.Corporatebondsissuedbyblue-chip"

investmentgrade"

companiesarealsounlikelytodefault;

thismightnotbethecasewithhigh-yield"

junk"

bondsissuedby 

firms 

withlesshealthyfinancials.（See 

yieldcurve.）

Businesscycle

Boomandbust.Thelong-runpatternofeconomic 

growth 

recession.AccordingtotheCentreforInternationalBusinessCycleResearchatColumbiaUniversity,between1854and1945theaverageexpansionlasted29monthsandtheaveragecontraction21months.Sincethesecondworldwar,however,expansionshavelastedalmosttwiceaslong,anaverageof50months,andcontractionshaveshortenedtoanaverageofonly11months.Overtheyears,economistshaveproducednumeroustheoriesofwhyeconomicactivityfluctuatessomuch,noneofthemparticularlyconvincing.AKitchincyclesupposedlylasted39monthsandwasduetofluctuationsincompanies'

inventories.TheJuglarcyclewouldlast8-9yearsasaresultofchangesin 

investment 

inplantandmachinery.Thentherewasthe20-yearKuznetscycle,allegedlydrivenbyhouse-building,and,perhapsthebest-knowntheoryofthemall,the50-yearkondratieffwave. 

hayek 

tangledwith 

keynes 

overwhatcausedthebusinesscycle,andwonthe 

nobelprizeforeconomics 

forhistheorythatvariationsinaneconomy'

output 

dependedonthesortofcapitalithad.Takingaquitedifferenttack,inthelate1960sArthurOkun,aneconomicadvisertopresidentsKennedyandJohnson,proclaimedthatthebusinesscyclewas"

obsolete"

.Ayearlater,theAmericaneconomywasinrecession.Again,inthelate1990s,someeconomistsclaimedthattechnologicalinnovationand 

globalisation 

meantthatthebusinesscyclewasathingofthepast.Alas,theyweresoonprovedwrong.

Capitalism

Thewinner,atleastfornow,ofthebattleofeconomic'

isms'

.Capitalismisafree-marketsystembuiltonprivateownership,inparticular,theideathatownersof 

CAPITAL 

havePROPERTYRIGHTS 

thatentitlethemtoearna 

PROFIT 

asarewardforputtingtheircapitalat 

RISK 

insomeformofeconomicactivity.Opinion（andpractice）differsconsiderablyamongcapitalistcountriesaboutwhatrolethestateshouldplayintheeconomy.Buteveryoneagreesthat,attheveryleast,forcapitalismtoworkthestatemustbestrongenoughtoguaranteepropertyrights.AccordingtoKarl 

MARX,capitalismcontainstheseedsofitsowndestruction,butsofarthishasprovedamoreaccuratedescriptionofMarx'

sprogeny, 

COMMUNISM.

Centralbank

Aguardianofthemonetarysystem.Acentralbanksetsshort-term 

INTERESTRATES 

andoverseesthehealthofthe 

FINANCIALSYSTEM,includingbyactingas 

LENDEROFLASTRESORT 

tocommercialbanksthatgetintofinancialdifficulties.TheFederalReserve,thecentralbankoftheUnitedStates,wasfoundedin1913.TheBankofEngland,knownaffectionatelyasthe'

OldLadyofThreadneedleStreet'

wasestablishedin1694,26 

yearsafterthecreationoftheworld'

sfirstcentralbankinSweden.Withthebirthofthe 

EURO 

in1999,the 

MONETARYPOLICY 

powersofthecentralbanksof11 

Europeancountriesweretransferredtoanew 

EUROPEANCENTRALBANK,basedinFrankfurt.

Duringthe1990stherewasatrendtomakecentralbanksindependentfrompoliticalinterventionintheirday-to-dayoperationsandallowthemtosetinterestrates.Independentcentralbanksshouldbeabletoconcentrateonthelong-termneedsofaneconomy,whereaspoliticalinterventionmaybeguidedbytheshort-termneedsofthe 

GOVERNMENT.Intheory,anindependentcentralbankshouldreducetheriskof 

INFLATION.Somecentralbanksarelegallyrequriedtosetinterestratessoastohitanexplicit 

inflationtarget.Politiciansareoftentemptedtoexploitapossibleshort-termtrade-offbetweeninflationandUNEMPLOYMENT,eventhoughthelong-termconsequenceofeasingpolicyinthiswayis（mosteconomistssay）thattheunemploymentratereturnstowhatyoustartedwithandinflationishigher.Anindependentcentralbank,becauseitdoesnothavetoworryaboutpersuadinganelectoratetovoteforit,ismorelikelytoactinthebestlong-runinterestsoftheeconomy.

ChicagoSchool

Aferventlyfree-marketeconomicphilosophylongassociatedwiththeUniversityofChicago.Attimes,especiallywhen 

KEYNESIANECONOMICS 

wastheorthodoxyinmuchoftheworld,theChicagoSchoolwasregardedasabastionofunworldlyextremism.However,fromthelate1970sitcametoberegardedasmainstreambymanyandChicagotrainedeconomistsoftenplayedacrucialpartintheimplementationofpoliciesoflow 

INFLATIONandmarket 

LIBERALISATION 

thatswepttheworldduringthe1980sand1990s.By2003,boastedtheUniversityofChicago,some22ofthe49thenwinnersofthe 

NOBELPRIZEFORECONOMICS 

hadbeenfacultymembers,studentsorresearchersthere.

Creditcrunch

When 

BANKS 

suddenlystoplending,or 

BOND 

market 

LIQUIDITY 

evaporates,usuallybecausecreditorshavebecomeextremely 

RISKAVERSE.

Comparativeadvantage

PaulSamuelson,oneofthe20thcentury'

sgreatesteconomists,onceremarkedthattheprincipleofcomparativeadvantagewastheonlybigideathat 

ECONOMICS 

hadprodu