新能源汽车分析newenergycarsanalysis.docx

新能源汽车分析newenergycarsanalysis.docx

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新能源汽车分析newenergycarsanalysis

Summary

ThemainpointofthisreportistoillustratethereasonswhyNewEnergyVehicleswillinfluenceGasolineVehiclesinthefuture.

ThebeginningofthisreportcoversthebackgroundoftheNewEnergyVehicles,includingbothadvantagesanddisadvantages.

FollowingthebackgroundistheanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenNewEnergyVehiclesandGasolineVehiclesandhowNewEnergyVehiclesinfluenceGasolineVehicles,plusthemacroeconomicsandmicroeconomicseffects.PoliciesfromChinesegovernmentandnationalplanaboutNewEnergyVehiclesarealsointroducedinthispart.

Intheend,suggestionsaregiventothecitizens,firmsandgovernmentrespectively,inordertoachievesustainabledevelopment.

TableofContents

Introduction

1.1BackgroundofNewEnergyVehicles

Automobilesarepopularlydemandedasvehicletoolnowadays.Chinahadacceleratedtheautomobileindustrysince1980.Duringthethirtyyears,Chinaraisedtheamountofvehicleproductionfrom100,000to10,000,000eachyear.

Becauseofitsconvenientandcomfortable,buyingadomesticautomobileisveryhot.Alongwiththedevelopmentofautomobileindustry,variedcarsareproducedfordifferentconsumersbutcustomerbuyingcriterianeverchange.Peoplewillconsideroftheconsumptionofgasolineofthecarandthepriceofit.Solowerpriceandwhethersavepetrolbecometheprincipleswhenbuyingacar.

Asaresult,NewEnergyVehiclesaredevelopedin2004,notonlyfordrivingcheaper,butalsodecreasinggreenhouseeffect.Usuallywecallhybridvehiclesandelectricvehicles（EVs）asnewenergyvehicles;Chinaismorelikelytodosomethinginelectricvehiclesinthecomingdecades.

1.2AdvantagesofEVs

Electricvehicles（wecallthem“EVs”inthisreport）arepropelledbyanelectricmotorpoweredbyrechargeablebatterypacks.Electricmotorshaveseveraladvantagesoverinternalcombustionengines（ICEs）

Suchas

●Energyefficient

●Environmentallyfriendly

●Performancebenefits

●Reduceenergydependence

●Rechargetime

1.3DisadvantagesofEVs

EVsarenotperfectvehicles,theystillhavesomebottlenecktobreakthrough:

●Hardtobreakthroughthecoretechnology

●PricesofEVsareuniversallyhigh.

●Thebatteryhastobechargedregularly.Ittakesabout6-8hourstorechargecompletely. 

●Limitsondrivingdistance.Thenormalworkingrangeofbatteryisabout80-130miles.

●Lackofpower

Body

2.1NationalplanaboutNewEnergyVehicles

MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology（MIIT）announcedrecentlythatChinawillinputover100milliontosupporttheproductionofNewEnergyVehiclesinthecoming10years.BythattimeChinawillbethelargestNewEnergyVehiclesproducingcountryintheworld.

2.2PoliciesforNewEnergyVehiclesfromgovernments

AsEVshaveseveralproblemstobepromoted,theChinese’sgovernmentshouldunveilnewpoliciesespeciallyforthehighcostinordertoenhancepurchasingpowerfromcitizens.Sofromthebeginningof2009tilltoday,ChinesegovernmentandsomeregionalgovernmentcameupwithasetofnewpoliciesforEVsoneafteranother.

InDecember9th2009,Shanghai,Chongqing,Wuhan,ShenzhenandBeijingarechosenastheexperimentalcitieswhichcansalenewenergyvehiclesforpersonaluse.ThegovernmentsofChongqingandShenzhenhavereleaseapolicyofsubsidy,buyerscangetasubsidyofbuyingEVs.Themaximumofsubsidyofbuyingnewenergyvehiclesraiseto60,000yuanbyShenzhengovernment.

2.3WhycouldNewEnergyVehiclesinfluenceGasolineVehicles

Becauseofthelimitedtechnologyandhighcost,thepriceofanEVsstillinahighplace.Ifthegovernmentsdon’tgiveanysubsidies,themarketsituationwon’tbegood.However,manyregionalgovernmentshavegivenprettygoodsubsidiesforbuyingEVs,sohowwillthelowerpriceaffectthesalesvolumeofEVs,whatwillchangeinEVs’demandcurve?

Demandcurvemeansthegraphicalrepresentationofthedemandschedule.Itshowshowmuchofagoodorserviceconsumerswanttobuyatanygivenprice.Itshowshowmuchofagoodorserviceconsumerswanttobuyatanygivenprice.Itshowsthenegativerelationshipbetweenthequantitydemandedandtheprice,whenallotherinfluencesonconsumers’plannedpurchasesremainthesame.Itslopesdownfromlefttorightandisaninverserelationshipbetweenpriceandquantitydemanded.

AccordingtothedefinitionofDemandCurve,weconcludethat,

●IfthepriceofEVsdecrease=thedemandofEVswillincrease

●IfthepriceofEVsincrease=thedemandofEVswilldecrease

Thelinechartbelowshowsthefactthatwhengovernmentsgivesubsidies,itcausesamovementalongthedemandcurvefromBtoA.

SohowcanEVsaffectthemarketandsalesvolumeofGVs?

AltoughEVsandGVsaredifferentproductsinvehiclemarket,theyhaveaspecialrelationship,andwecallthemsubstitutes.Substitutemeansagoodthatcanbeusedinplaceofanothergood.

Forexampleyoucanusebutterormargarine,cocacolaorPepsi,orangejuiceorapplejuice.Sointhisreport,asubstituteforGVscouldbeEVs.

Asaresult,EVsandGVsareconnectedbyamathematicalrelation.

●ThepriceofanEVdecrease.ThenitcausesmorepeoplewillpreferEVsbecauseofitslowerprice,sothedemandofEVswillincrease,asEVsarethesubstitutesofGVs,thenitmeanslesspeoplewillchooseGVs,GVswilllosethemarket,thedemandofGVswilldecrease.

●IfthepriceofanEVincrease.ThenitcauseslesspeoplewillconsumeEVs,EVslosethemarket.ThenitleadstomorepeoplecontinuebuyingGVsandsalesvolumeisverybig,thedemandofGVswillincrease.

ThelinechartbelowshowsthatthereisashiftwhenEVsdecreasetheprice,thedemandcurveofGVsshifttoleft.

2.4Macroandmicroeconomicseffects

MICRO:

AsurveyamongChinesehasshownthat86%ofpeopleconsidersaving-gasolineisveryimportantinbuyingcars,alsoover90%peopleareworryingaboutthegreenhouseeffect.Inthatcase,electriccarcansavefamiliesalotofmoney,atthesametimenopetrolfumesanymoreandlessnoisy.MeanwhileNewEnergyVehiclesgivethefirmslotsofchancestospreadtheirmarket.

MACRO:

Accordingtothetwelfthfive-yearplan,Chinaisgoingtoacceleratetransformationofthemodeofeconomicdevelopment,promotetheadjustmentandupgradingofindustrialstructure,raiseitseconomicandsocialdevelopmenttoanewlevel.BatteryrechargeroomsaregoingtobuiltalloverChina;italsogivesover500,000jobopportunities.Ithelpstoraiseemploymentrate.

Conclusion

3.1Suggestions

AsNewEnergyVehicleindustryisakindofnewindustries,itcan’thelphavingsomeshortages,butwecanclearlyforecasttheprospects.Nextaresomesuggestionstocitizens,firmsandgovernments.

Citizens:

Duetothelowerpricesandbetterservices,IsuggestthatfamiliesshouldchooseEVsastheirtraveltoolsinthefuture.EVswillnotonlysavealotofmoneybutalsogivepeopleahealthydriving-environment.ThemoreimportantthingisthatwhenpeoplearesupportingEVs,theyarealsosavingtheearthinaway.

Firms:

Chinesegovernmenthasalreadydecidedtoput90billionintovehicle-makingindustries.Becauseofthat,vehicle-makingfirmswillgainthepowertoproducemoredifferentkindsofEVstomeettheconsumers’needs.ThefirmsshouldreducethecostbyexploringnewtechnologysothatthepricesofEVswillbedecreasedandpeoplehavenobarrierstobuyEVs.

Government:

Apartfromthesubsidy-policyfromthegovernment,morepreferentialpoliciesshouldcomeintobeinginordertobenefittheconsumers

Appendix

新能源汽车消费者补贴政策破局

2009年05月15日10:

24:

53　来源：

上海证券报

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    随着地方政府开始着手补贴私人购买新能源汽车，新能源汽车无疑将加快驶入寻常百姓家。

据比亚迪销售公司有关人士向本报记者透露，之前只供应政府部门的比亚迪双模电动车F3DM将在今年下半年开始向私人消费者零售。

    本报记者同时还获悉，深圳市政府有关部门已经就市民购买新能源汽车给予多少金额的补贴，进行了广泛深入的市场调研。

   在面对新能源汽车高昂的成本和市场需要之间的矛盾时，地方政府开始发挥重要的作用。

这方面，重庆市政府走在了其他城市的前面。

自从在全国率先启动节能与新能源汽车示范运行工程后，重庆市出台了向个人购买混合动力汽车提供补贴的政策。

尽管重庆的补贴政策看上去并不是那么完美——补贴资金有限，补贴数量较少，而且只针对本地长安汽车生产的混合动力汽车，然而，业内人士誉之为“新能源汽车补贴政策破题之举”。

     补贴政策如何落实是关键

    技术成熟与成本控制是新能源汽车产业化的两个难点，也是国家出台扶持政策的出发点。

清华大学汽车研究所所长陈全世向记者表示，在政策扶持方面，现已出台的在100亿元中安排专项资金支持新能源汽车技术研发，“十城千辆”示范运行，新能源汽车购买给予补贴等政策，自下而上启动市场，路径准确鲜明，对于该产业是重大利好，但关键还要看能否最终落实。

 陈全世认为，《规划》提出的“到2011年新能源汽车形成50万辆的产能”实现较有把握，但这一产能到时能否完全开足，则还要看市场需求；“新能源汽车销量要占到乘用车销售总量的5%左右”则要看消费者的认可程度，能否实现目前难下定论。

    另外，新能源汽车将成为我国赶超世界汽车工业的突破口，但发展新能源汽车不能一哄而上，政府与企业都要稳步推进。

国家信息中心信息开发部主任徐长明在采访中表示，“我国新能源汽车的发展必须经历一个长期、复杂的过程。

目前国内汽车企业对新能源汽车热情高涨，但大多数企业发展新能源汽车更多的还是在造势，吸引眼球。

”徐长明强调，现阶段我国在新能源汽车研发和制造上还有很多问题需要解决，混合动力技术、电池技术与国外企业比较，还存在一定的差距，关键还是依赖技术、成本及公用设施问题的解决。

目前，政府对新能源汽车的补贴还只是“示范工程”，今后很长的一段时间，政府应该在推广新能源汽车方面起到示范作用。

（记者宦璐）

References

Books

Gregory,M2009,PrinciplesofEconomics,fifthedition,CengagaLearning

VictoriaUniversity2010,Economics,secondedition,VictoriaUniversity,MelbourneAustralia.

ElectronicDocuments-InternetAddresses

Huan,L2009,PoliciesaboutNewEnergyVehicles,Xinhuanet,viewed23Oct2010,<>

Cheng,L&Zhu,T&Liu,Z2010,NewEnergyVehicleswillspreadinpeoplesoon,Sohu,viewed25Oct2010,<>

USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency2008,ElectricVehicles,Fueleconomy,viewed25Oct2010,

//www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml>

Jian,Y2010,NewEnergyVehiclesreallysavemoney,BBSLiao,viewed20Oct2010,<>