报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率Word文档格式.docx

报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率Word文档格式.docx

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tosustainthesteadymarchofprosperity

enjoyedinpreviousdecadesinmost

developedeconomies.

Butlong-termpessimismisunwarranted.

Withtherecentconvergenceofa

transformativesetoftechnologies,

economiesareenteringanewerainwhich

artificialintelligence（AI）hasthepotential

toovercomethephysicallimitationsof

capitalandlaborandopenupnewsources

ofvalueandgrowth.

Indeed,Accentureanalyzed12developed

economiesandfoundthatAIhasthe

potentialtodoubletheirannualeconomic

growthratesby2035.

Toavoidmissingoutonthisopportunity,

policymakersandbusinessleadersmust

preparefor,andworktoward,afuture

withartificialintelligence.Theymustdoso

notwiththeideathatAIissimplyanother

productivityenhancer.Rather,theymust

seeAIasthetoolthatcantransformour

thinkingabouthowgrowthiscreated.

3|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

THENEWFACTOROFPRODUCTION

Acrosstheglobe,ratesofgrossdomesticproduct（GDP）growthhavebeenshrinking.

Moreover,thishasbeentrueforthreedecades.Keymeasuresofeconomicefficiencyare

trendingsharplydownward,whilelabor-forcegrowthacrossthedevelopedworldislargely

stagnant.Itisevenindeclineinsomecountries（seeFigures1to4）.

Giventhispooroutlook,commentatorsThatmissingelementishownew

saythatastagnanteconomyisthe“newtechnologiesaffectgrowthintheeconomy.

normal.”Onanevenmorepessimisticnote,

economistRobertGordonarguesthat

productivitygrowthoverthenextquarter

centurywillcontinueatthesluggishpace

wehaveexperiencedsinceHe

believesthatthepasttwocenturiesof

“GreatInventions,”suchasthesteamship

andtelegraph,areunlikelytoberepeated.

Andthisdeficitofinnovation,combined

Traditionally,capitalandlaborarethe

“factorsofproduction”thatdrivegrowthin

theeconomy（seeFigure5）.Growthoccurs

whenthestockofcapitalorlaborincrease,

orwhentheyareusedmoreefficiently.The

growththatcomesfrominnovationsand

technologicalchangeintheeconomyis

capturedintotalfactorproductivity（TFP）.

withunfavorabledemographictrends,

flaggingeducationalattainmentand

risingwealthinequality,willslow

economicprogress.

Economistshavealwaysthoughtofnew

technologiesasdrivinggrowththrough

theirabilitytoenhanceTFP.Thismade

senseforthetechnologiesthatwehave

So,areweexperiencingtheendofgrowth

andprosperityasweknowit

seenuntilnow.Thegreattechnological

breakthroughsoverthelastcentury—

electricity,railwaysandIT—boosted

Asgrimasmuchofthedataundoubtedlyproductivitydramaticallybutdidnot

is,itmissesanimportantpartofthestory.createentirelynewworkforces.

4|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Today,wearewitnessingthetake-

offofanothertransformativesetof

technologies,commonlyreferredtoas

artificialintelligence（see“Whatisartificial

intelligence”）.ManyseeAIassimilarto

pasttechnologicalinventions.Ifwebelieve

this,thenwecanexpectsomegrowth,but

nothingtransformational.

ButwhatifAIhasthepotentialtobenot

justanotherdriverofTFP,butanentirely

newfactorofproductionHowcanthisbe

ThekeyistoseeAIasacapital-laborhybrid.

AIcanreplicatelaboractivitiesatmuch

greaterscaleandspeed,andtoevenperform

sometasksbeyondthecapabilitiesof

humans.Nottomentionthatinsomeareas

ithastheabilitytolearnfasterthanhumans,

ifnotyetasdeeply.Forexample,byusing

virtualassistants,1,000legaldocumentscan

bereviewedinamatterofdaysinsteadof

takingthreepeoplesixmonthsto

Similarly,AIcantaketheformofphysical

capitalsuchasrobotsandintelligent

machines.Andunlikeconventionalcapital,

suchasmachinesandbuildings,itcan

actuallyimproveovertime,thankstoits

self-learningcapabilities.

Basedonouranalysisandmodeling,we

canillustratewhathappenswhenAIis

seenasanewfactorofproductionrather

thanjustaproductivityenhancer.The

impactonprojectedgrowthfortheUnited

States,forexample,isdramatic.AsFigure

6shows,thefirstscenarioisbusiness-as-

usual,assumingnoAIeffect.Thesecond

indicatesthetraditionalviewofAIasaTFP

enhancerwhereithasalimitedimpact

ongrowth.Thethirdscenarioshowswhat

happenswhenAIcanactasanewfactorof

production—thereisatransformativeeffect

ongrowth.ThisabilityofAItocomplement

andenhancetraditionalfactorsof

productioniswhereitstruepotentiallies.

TheadvanceofAIisleadingustorethinkfundamentaleconomicrelationshipsandhowvalueiscreated.

DAVIDLEHRER,CEO,CONATIX

5|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Developedeconomies:

Theendofgrowth

Onavarietyofkeymeasures,economicdataseemstosupportamood

oflong-termpessimism.

FIGURE1:

GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT

Sincethe1980s,GDPgrowthhassteadilyslowedinmanylargeeconomies.

JAPAN

FRANCE

UNITEDSTATES

ITALY

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

1980s1990s2000s2010s

RealGDPgrowth（%,annualaverageovertheperiod）

NB:

Datapointsacrossthedashedlinesindicatetheaverageforthesixcountries.

Source:

OxfordEconomics

6|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE2:

PRODUCTIVITY

Akeymeasureofhowwellaneconomyusesitsexistingcapitalandpeopleis“totalfactor

productivity”（TFP）.DatashowaweakeningofTFP,especiallyinthepast10years.

Totalfactorproductivity（%,annualaverageovertheperiod）

TheConferenceBoard,TotalEconomicDatabase

7|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE3:

CAPITALEFFICIENCY

Themarginalcapitalefficiencyrate,anindicatoroftheproductivityofcapitalsuchas

machinesandbuildings,hassteadilydroppedovera50-yearperiod.

50

25

19661971197619811986199119962001200620112016

Marginalcapitalefficiency（%,6-yearmovingaverage）

EuropeanCommission,AnnualMacroeconomicDatabase

FIGURE4:

LABOR

Aspopulationsageandbirthratesslow,fewerpeopleareavailabletopickuptheslackin

theworkforce.

UNITED

STATES

SPAIN

UNITEDBELGIUMSWEDENAUSTRIAFRANCENETHERLANDSITALYFINLANDGERMANY

KINGDOM

Workingagepopulation（%,annualaveragegrowthovertheperiod）

8|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE5:

THEAIGROWTHMODEL

OurmodeladaptsthetraditionalgrowthmodelbyincludingAIasafactorofproduction.

TRADITIONALGROWTHMODEL

CapitalLaborTFP

GROWTH

ADAPTEDGROWTH

MODEL

CapitalLaborTFPAI

indicatesthechangeinthatfactor.

Accentureanalysis

FIGURE6:

THREEGROWTHSCENARIOSFORTHEUNITEDSTATES’ECONOMY

AIasanewfactorofproductioncanleadtosignificantgrowthopportunities

fortheUnitedStates’economy.

7,408

897897

UNITEDSTATES’GVA

AI

CWOHNATTEISNATRSTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

AIisnotanewfield;

muchofitstheoreticalandtechnologicalunderpinning

wasdevelopedoverthepast70yearsbycomputerscientistssuchasAlan

Turing,MarvinMinskyandJohnMcCarthy.Today,thetermreferstomultiple

technologiesthatcanbecombinedindifferentwaysto:

SenseComprehendAct

ComputervisionandaudioNaturallanguageAnAIsystemcan

processing,forexample,processingandinferencetakeactionthrough

areabletoactivelyenginescanenabletechnologiessuchas

perceivetheworldaroundAIsystemstoanalyzeexpertsystemsand

thembyacquiringandandunderstandtheinferenceengines,or

processingimages,soundsinformationcollected.undertakeactionsinthe

andspeech.TheuseofThistechnologyisusedphysicalworld.Auto-pilot

facialrecognitionatbordertopowerthelanguagefeaturesandassisted-

controlkiosksisonetranslationfeatureofbrakingcapabilitiesin

practicalexampleofhowitsearchengineresults.carsareexamplesofthis.

canimproveproductivity.

Allthreecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheabilitytolearnfromexperienceandadapt

overtime.AIalreadyexiststosomedegreeinmanyindustriesbuttheextenttowhichitis

becomingpartofourdailylivesissettogrowfast.

TwokeyfactorsareenablingAIgrowth:

1.Unlimitedaccesstocomputingpower.

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