宏观经济分析英文论文.docx

宏观经济分析英文论文.docx

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宏观经济分析英文论文

2010~2011SurveyandanalysisofdomesticinflationIntroduction

Currentinflationhasbecomeahotspot.AsChina'seconomicdevelopmentisastageofdevelopment,andenergy,realestateissues,issuessuchasagriculturalproductthecombinedeffect,makingChina'sinflationproblemevenmorecomplicated.Thisarticlefromthecurrentsituationofinflation,analyzesthecausesofinflation,putforwardtheproposalreducethecurrentinflationinChina.

AccordingtoNationalBureauofStatisticsJanuary20,2011datareleasedin2010,China'sannualconsumerpriceindex（CPI）continuedtorise,1.5%fromthebeginningoftheyearhavebeenrisingtoahighof5.1%inNovember,DecemberCPIrose4.6%,theCentralrose0.5%,annualincreaseof3.3%.Lastyear'spriceincreases,makingChinatheemergenceofalargenumberof"priceoffreshwords",suchas"garlicyouvicious,""beansyouplay","Oilcannotyou","Jiangyourarmy"to"sugarEmperor",etc.endlessvarietyofnewpriceterms,Jokingrevealedahighprice.Thetrendin2011isstillnotreduced,butthemoreintensethemorespeech.Marchconsumerpricesrose5.4%,5.3%inApril.Butmanypeoplebelievethatthisdataislow,generallybelievethatin2010inflationwas7.1%.

Ineconomics,inflationisariseinthegenerallevelofpricesofgoodsandservicesinaneconomyoveraperiodoftime.Whenthegeneralpricelevelrises,each

unitofcurrencybuysfewergoodsandservices.Consequently,inflationalsoreflectsanerosioninthepurchasingpowerofmoney–alossofrealvalueintheinternalmediumofexchangeandunitofaccountintheeconomy.Achiefmeasureofpriceinflationistheinflationrate,theannualizedpercentagechangeinageneralpriceindex（normallytheConsumerPriceIndex）overtime.

Inflation'seffectsonaneconomyarevariousandcanbesimultaneouslypositiveandnegative.Negativeeffectsofinflationincludeadecreaseintherealvalueofmoneyandothermonetaryitemsovertime,uncertaintyoverfutureinflationmaydiscourageinvestmentandsavings,andhighinflationmayleadtoshortagesofgoodsifconsumersbeginhoardingoutofconcernthatpriceswillincreaseinthefuture.Positiveeffectsincludeensuringcentralbankscanadjustnominalinterestrates,andencouraginginvestmentinnon-monetarycapitalprojects.

Economistsgenerallyagreethathighratesofinflationandhyperinflationarecausedbyanexcessivegrowthofthemoneysupply.Viewsonwhichfactorsdeterminelowtomoderateratesofinflationaremorevaried.Lowormoderateinflationmaybeattributedtofluctuationsinrealdemandforgoodsandservices,orchangesinavailablesuppliessuchasduringscarcities,aswellastogrowthinthemoneysupply.However,theconsensusviewisthatalongsustainedperiodofinflationiscausedbymoneysupplygrowingfasterthantherateofeconomicgrowth.Today,mostmainstreameconomistsfavoralow,steadyrateofinflation.Low（asopposedtozeroornegative）inflationmayreducetheseverityof

economicrecessionsbyenablingthelabormarkettoadjustmorequicklyinadownturn,andreducetheriskthataliquiditytrappreventsmonetarypolicyfromstabilizingtheeconomy.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowandstableisusuallygiventomonetaryauthorities.Generally,thesemonetaryauthoritiesarethecentralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingofinterestrates,throughopenmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbankingreserverequirements.

ThemajorinflationprobleminChinatoday

AnalystsgenerallyagreedthattheupcomingDecember2009theconsumerpriceindex（CPI）changeappearsmorelikely-than-expected,CPIisexpectedtoabout1.5%to2%inthelastmonth,basedonrapidriseinfoodprices,takingintoaccountsnowandotherweatherfactors,andevenmonthlyCPIdoesnotruleoutmorethan2%.Thejudgeforthe2010CPI,analystsbelievethatabout3%oftheyear,butmayoccurinthefourthquarter,nearly5%inflationpressures.

1.Thesteadyriseinrealestatedevelopmentandinvestment,housepricesgraduallyincreasetheimpactofinflationexpectations.Realestatehasbeenthegovernment'smacroeconomicregulationandcontrolofthemostintractableproblems,theGovernmentrecentlyintroducedthemostseverehistoryofpricecontrolprograms,suchasthelimitofloans,propertytax,etc.Now,aftertheintroductionofaseriesofcontrolmeasures,manypeoplesaidChina'sgoldenyearswillsoonendofthepropertymarket,somepeoplewouldsayitisshort-termregulation,afterall,istemporary,andmaycauseshock.Butbacktotheviewoftherecentpropertymarket

begantopickup,therehasbeenmoreontheexpansionofthemoresuppressedthestrangephenomenon.Thismakesthealreadyhealthypropertymarketisnearcollapse,acceleratinginflationswell.

2.Thefullpricesofagriculturalproducts,inflationunannounced.

NationalBureauofStatisticsreleasedthemajorfoodpricesin50citiesfound:

April21-30May,tomato,potato,rice,flour,respectively,theaveragepriceof5.87yuan/kg,4.71yuan/kg,4.51yuan/kg,3.46yuan/kg,respectively,overthesameperiodrose6.5%lastmonth,13.5%,2.3%,0.9%,whilethesameperiodlastyearrose20.5%,49%,18.4%,9.5%.Monitoredbythe27majoragriculturalproducts,only5kindsofagriculturalproductshasdeclinedoverthesameperiodlastyear,pricesofagriculturalproductsaccountedfor81.5%,ofwhichthelargestrateofincreaseinvegetableprices.Generalriseinpricesofagriculturalproducts,theindustryanalysisofitscauses,inadditiontotheimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandcausedbyweather,transportationandlaborcostsandotherfactors,thehotmoneytraptheuseofinformation,speculationandothermeansofcollectivecryrosegarlic,greenbeansandotheragriculturalproducts,asthisrounddrivingforcebehindthepricesurge.

3.Energyprices,acceleratedinflation

China'snewroundofenergypriceadjustmentscurtainhasbeenopened.Fullofenergypricesbegantorise.Aftertheoilpriceincreases,therefinedoilproductshavebeenreachingrecordhighs.Inadditiontonaturalgas,startanewroundofpriceincreasesthroughout.Anotherproduct"electricity",theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionhasalsoreportedthesalepricehasbeenadjustedtodiscussthe

programwiththeprovincestocarryouttheworkofthemessage,theterminalsalespriceoftheaverageincreaseisexpectedtobe2centsperso.Thiswillspeeduptheinflation

InflationAnalysis

Findinformationonbeforethecontentsofanindividualundertheschoolin2010to2011,inflationdiditsownanalysis.Inflationperformanceisthemostintuitiveprices.Thisismostfrequentlyheardthenewstwoyearshousingprices,risingoilprices,vegetablepricesrose.Realestatehousingpricesbecauseofcoursecausedbyheat.Priceofoilisbasicallycontrolledbythegovernment,oilpricesmeanthatthegovernmentshouldbemoremoney.Perhapsbecauseofrisingvegetablepricesinshortsupplythelasttwoyearsmorecountriestonaturaldisasters,leadingtocropfailures,naturalvegetablepricestorise.Relatedtotheoilindustry,oilpricesrise,manyproductioncostswillrise,andthecorrespondingproductpriceishigher.Vegetables,thepriceofthemisdirectlyrelatedtofeedingandhousingpeople.Takingthesethreecategories,priceswereallup,andpeoplewithoutacorrespondingincreaseinproductionandIthinktheseshouldbepartofthereasonleadingtotheprice.HerearemyonlinedocumentationundertheinflationtriggeredbyanumberofelementsprovedIsaidonseveralpoints.

1.Becauseofthefrequentnaturaldisasters,agriculturalcropfailure

China'soverallagriculturalharvestin2010,resultinginpriceincreasesrapidly.First,thespreadofdustinaridregionsofInnerMongoliatotheeastandsouth;Secondly,Guizhou,Yunnan,Sichuan,Guangxi,alargeareaofdrought;

Moreover,theearthquakeofYushuCountyofmagnitude7.1occurredinApril,caused2698peoplewerekilled,270missing;thesametime,Hainan,asthesupplyofvegetablesisimportanttohavefloodinginOctober,leadingtoseriousfoodprices.Thesenaturaldisasterscausedfoodshortages,leadingtofurtherpriceincreasescausedbyinflation.Meanwhile,somecountriesexperienceddroughtandfloodsin2010causedbyfoodproductionandinternationalagriculturalpricesandthusdomesticpricesinChinahadasignificantimpact.

2.Adjustmentofnationalpoliciestopromoterisingprices

First,in2010China,thepriceadjustment,electric,water,naturalgaspricesrise,exacerbatinginflation.Second,becauseChina'smarketeconomyisnotstandardized,thecentralgovernmentregulationofrealestate,thecommunityoutalotofhotmoneyfrompropertyspeculationafteraseriousagriculturalproducts.Excessliquidityinthecurrentcircumstances,increasingthevalueofcapitalinvestmentdemandcausedinflation.

Inaddition,earlyNovember2010,theUnitedStatesannouncedanewroundofquantitativeeasingpolicy,thereleasemakestheflowofforeignagriculturalproductsinChina,commoditiesandrawmaterials（suchascrudeoil）pricesrise,andspreadtoChina,theCPIgrowthratethanexpected.

3.Theexcessivecurrencyandtheentryofhotmoney

Since2008,thefinancialtsunami,theglobaleconomicstimuluspoliciesforlarge-scale,issuealotofmoney,theUnitedStatesaftertheimplementationofChina'sfinancialcrisisonWallStreet'seconomicstimuluspolicy,moneysupplyissuetoo,

theoreticallymorethantwicetheGDP,thecurrencymarketliquiditytoolarge,thehighsidewhenthemoneysupplywhenthepricenaturallyrises.A