特斯拉的电力革 命需要新硬件-全球-汽车行业.docx

特斯拉的电力革 命需要新硬件-全球-汽车行业.docx

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AA GlobalResearch 20August2018

IsTeslaRevolutionaryorEvolutionary?

Lap2:

Electronics–TheRevolutionNeedsNewHardware

Autonomousneedsaredrivingmajorchangesinautoelectronics

InLap2ofourteardownseries,welookatautoelectronicstoseeifTesladeservesitsreputationastheelectronicsleader.ThetransitiontoLevel2+autonomousvehicles（AVs）significantlyincreasesacar'sneededcomputepower.Inthepast,addinganewfeaturemeantaddinganewECU（electroniccontrolunit）,butthetraditionalelectronicarchitecture（EA）isinadequateforfutureneeds,particularlyformoreadvancedADASapplications.Thisdrivesour1stmajortrend-domaincentralization.ECUswillbeconsolidatedintomorepowerfuldomaincontrollers,addinghardware&semicontent.

Hardwareabstractionrequiredfor“thesoftware-definedvehicle”

CentralizationenablessecureOTAupdates,bettermaintenance,&anenhancedconsumerexperience（see:

HowWillBigDataRevolutionizetheAutoIndustry?

）.However,connectivitywillalsorequiretheneedtoupdatesoftwareonanyhardware,drivingthe2ndmajortrend-hardwareabstraction.Today,hardwarehasdeeplyembeddedsoftwarethatisdifficulttovalidate&update.Withabstraction,thehardwarebecomeslessvaluable,butthesoftwareismorevaluable.Thistrendisdisruptiveforsuppliersthatcouldloseshareorbedisintermediatedbytheautomakers.

SowhowinsLap2:

Electronics…

TeslawinsLap2offeringAutoPilot（Level2）.TheModel3givesusalookintofutureEAswithitscentralcomputeplatform&connectivity;however,thehighcentralizationaddscomplexitytoassembly,andthelackofredundancyimpliesLevel4isunlikely.Additionally,thehigherdegreeofcentralizationdoesnotappeartoofferanadvantagevs.thedomaincontrollerstrategybeingpursuedbymostOEMs.WealsothinkLiDARisneededforLevel4（seeQ-Series:

Whowillwintheracetoautonomouscars?

）.

GoodforsemisandGOOG,buthigherriskforTier1electronicssuppliers

TheModel3had~4xmoresemicontentvs.theaverageICEvehicleduetoADAS&powertrainsemis.DespiterecentnewsthatTSLAplanstoin-sourcesomesemisitsnewHardware3platform,softwareintegrationremainskey.AutosupplierslikeAPTV&Contishouldseestrongdemandfordomaincontrollerhardware,althoughtheroleofautosuppliersinAVsoftwaredevelopmentislessclear.Forinfotainmentoperatingsystems,weseeAndroidAutoasasignificantchallengerforexistingsystemstoday.

Equities

GlobalAutomobiles

ColinLangan,CFA

Analystcolin.langan@

+1-212-7139949

GeneVladimirov,CFAAssociateAnalystgene.vladimirov@

+1-212-713-1091

PatrickHummel,CFA

Analystpatrick.hummel@

+41-44-2397923

DavidLesne

Analystdavid.lesne@

+44-20-75675815

JulianRadlinger,CFA

Analystjulian.radlinger@

+44-20-75681171

KoheiTakahashi

Analystkohei.takahashi@

+81-3-52086172

PaulGong

Analystpaul.gong@

+852-29717868

EugeneJung

Analysteugene.jung@

+82237028801

DavidMulholland,CFA

Analystdavid.mulholland@

+44-20-75684069

TimothyArcuri

Analysttimothy.arcuri@

+1-415-3525676

NicolasGaudois

Analystnicolas.gaudois@

+852-29715681

EricJ.Sheridan

Analysteric.sheridan@

+1-212-7139310

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE36.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Contents

Summary 3

Surprise#1:

CheaperthanExpected 3

Surprise#2:

Model3ElectronicArchitectureNottheFuture?

4

Surprise#3:

HardwareAbstractionLikelyDisruptive 5

Surprise#4:

ConnectivityDrivingBetterUserExperience 6

Surprise#5:

ClosedSystemMayLose 7

Surprise#6:

Goodforsemis 9

…butthebattlegroundisheatingup 9

Surprise#7:

Level2HardwareCostOnly~$1,800 10

Whoisbest/worstpositioned?

11

SectorSummary 12

GlobalAutos 13

GlobalAutoSuppliers 14

Tech 15

Semiconductors 15

TheFutureofAutoElectronics 16

Q:

HowdidtheModel3costcomparetoourexpectations?

17

Q:

Howwillautoelectronicschange?

17

#1:

DomainCentralization 18

#2:

HardwareAbstraction 19

Q:

Whowinsfromthesetrends?

21

Q:

Aretraditionalautomakersbehind?

22

Q:

AreAutomakersInvestinginConnectivity&UserExperience?

22

Q:

CompetingwithAutoPilot?

22

Q:

WhatarelongtermrisksforTesla?

24

#1:

Level4AutonomousDrivingLooksUnlikely 24

#2:

PossiblyTooCentralized?

24

#3:

SimplerNotAlwaysBetter 25

ADeeperLookattheModel3Electronics 26

Appendix 34

IsTeslaRevolutionaryorEvolutionary?

20August2018

AA

Summary

TeslaisnowrampingproductionoftheModel3,thehighestprofilecarlaunchinthelastdecade.TounderstandhowrevolutionarythisvehiclewillbetheUBSEvidenceLabtoredownthenewTeslaModel3,the2014BMWi3,and2017ChevyBolt.TheLap1reportfocusedonpowertrain.Lap2isfocusedonelectronics.AndthefinalLapwilllookatfit&finish.TheUBSteardownexpertsprovidedafullbreakdownofthemajorvehiclecomponentsincludingthePowertrain&Battery,theControllingElectronics,theBody&Chassis,andtheInterior&Safety.Eachcomponentwasremoved,studied,andscrutinizedforafullviewoftheprosandconsofthedesign,functionality,theeaseofmanufacturing,andthecostofproduction.

Surprise#1:

CheaperthanExpected

TeslaisthewinnerofLap2:

electronics,thoughTesla'sAutoPilotoptiongavethemaclearadvantage.TheModel3hasADAS（advanceddriverassistancesystem）capabilitiesdesignedintothevehicleaswellasamoreefficientoverallelectronicarchitecture（EA）.TheTeslaModel3electronicmoduleswere~$1,200morecostlythantheChevyBolt.However,withthestandardADASfeaturesincluded,weexpectedthecosttobe$1,500higher.Teslasavedmoneybyeliminatingtheinstrumentclusterandinteriorswitches.



UBStoredownaTeslaModel3,the2014BMWi3,and2017ChevyBolt.Thisreportwillfocusonthedifferenceinelectronics.

TheaddedcostoftheADASsystemwasabout$300lowerthanweexpected.

Figure1:

TSLAModel3Teardownvs.PriorEstimatedCost Figure2:

TeslaModel3vs.ChevyBolt&BMWi3

Lap3

$5,100

$4,800

Model3PreviousEstimate Model3Teardown

Estimate



+$300lowerthanourestimate

+$900higherthanourestimate

$6,000

$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

$0

Other

RearviewMirrorLeadAcidBatteryInteriorSwitchesInstrumentClusterInfotainmentInteriorControls

WireHarness

Interior&Safety Body&Chassis

ControllingElectronics Powertrain&Battery

TeslaModel3

BMWi3ChevyBolt ADAS/Chassis

Source:

UBS Source:

UBS

NoPromisedWiringSavings

WhileTeslamadeclaimsaboutreducingthewiringintheModel3vs.theModelSandX,theoveralllowvoltagewiringcostwassurprisinglyabout$150moreexpensivethantheBolt.TheaddedcostlikelyreflectswiringforADASsensors,butoverallthisshowsnostepfunctionchangeincorewiring.Thatsaid,inourLap1Teardownwehighlightedthehighvoltagewiringwasreducedby$160inthepowertrainduetoamoreefficientdesign.All-in,thelowandhighvoltagewiringcostswereonly~$10lowerthantheBolt.ThisisaslightpositiveforwiringsupplierslikeAptivandLear.



TheredoesnotappeartobeasignificantchangeinLVwiringvstheBolt.

Surprise#2:

Model3ElectronicArchitectureNottheFuture?

Designedmorerecently,Tesla'selectronicarchitecture（EA）shouldbeagoodtemplateforthefuture;however,traditionalOEMswilllikelytakeadifferentapproach.TraditionalOEMsarefocusedonconsolidatingADASandinfotainmentcomputeintohighpowereddomaincontrollers.TeslatookthingsastepfurtherbyconsolidatingADAS&infotainmentdomaincontrollersintoasinglecentralcomputemodule.Whilethisreducesoverallcomplexity,itdoesnotaddfunctionalitycomparedtousingdiscretedomaincontrollers.Inaddition,expertshighlighttwoadditionalchallenges:

（1）NotLevel4ready:

WearealreadyskepticalTeslacandeliverLevel4autonomywithoutLiDAR（seeourQ-SeriesWhoWillWintheRacetoAutonomousCars?

）.MostexpertsalsobelieveLevel4willrequireahighlevelofredundancy（ex.backupcomputer）.TheModel3’sADASfunctionsarecontrolledbyasingle,centralizedcomputerwithpoint-to-pointconnectionstolowerlevelECUs,whichintroducesasinglepointoffailurefortheentiresystem（Starnetwork）.AnetworktopologywithasinglepointoffailurelackstheredundancytoreachLevel4/5asasmallerrorinthecentralcomputercancrashtheentirenetwork.Inthefuture,expertsexpectautomakerstoshifttoaself-healing,meshnetworktopologywithsomeformofdistributedcomputesolution.

（2）Addsassemblycomplexity:

Tesla’sEAmaybetoocentralized.Byheavilyrelyingononemaincontroller,itisdifficulttotesteachsystemasitflowsthroughtheassemblyline.Anissuewithelectronicsmaynotbeidentifieduntilitisfurtherdowntheline,makingithardertoidentifytherootcause.Forexample,Teslausestwobodydomaincontrollers,butitmightbebettertohavemore'zones',eachassociatedwithpartoftheassemblyprocess.Thesavingsfromreducingmicrocontrollerscouldbeoffsetbyhigherfailurecostsontheassemblyline.

Tesla’sabilitytopackagethreedomaincontrollersintoasingle,centra