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Atthe

15thPECCGeneralMeeting

Brunei,Darussalam

September1-3,2003

CommercialAgricultureintheWorldTradingSystem

Commercialagricultureplaysanimportantroleintheworldtradingsystem---andnotjustasasignificantsourceoftradedisputesandnegotiatinglogjams.

（Slide1–NetInterregionalFoodFlows）

Oneaspectofthatrolecanbeillustratedbythechangesthathaveoccurredinworld’sagriculturalexports.Forexample,fiftyyearsago,theUnitedStateswasthelargestagriculturalexporter,doingabout$3billioninsalesperyear.SixofitstoptencustomerswereinWesternEurope;

oneinAsiaandonlytwowereindevelopingcountries.

（Slide2–InterregionalFoodFlows）

Today,U.S.agriculturalexportstop$50billionayear.Sixofitstoptencustomersaredevelopingcountries,andthree-fourthsofU.S.agriculturalexportsgotoAsiaandtheAmericas.ThesamehashappenedinBrazil,Argentina,China,AustraliaandCanada.Largeincreasestohighlypopulousdevelopingcountrieswhosepercapitaincomeshavebeguntorisewithglobalization,haveemergedasthestrongestgrowthmarketsforland-intensiveagriculturalproducts.

Butthereisanotherpartofthestoryaswell.Agriculturalprotectionremainsveryhigh–tentimesgreaterthanforindustrialproducttrade.Subsidies,unusuallyhightariffsandemerging“quality”standardsallhavefavoredlocalproductionoverimportsinmostdevelopedcountries,andinsomedevelopingones.Thishighleveloftradedistortioninagricultureislimitingdevelopmentopportunitiesformanylow-incomecountries,jeopardizingtheirfoodsecurityandstressingtheenvironment.

Forallofthesereasons,agricultureisthelinchpinoftheDohaRound.Dohacanshapeforagenerationtheprogresswemakeinmergingagricultureintotherestofthetradingsystem.TheprogressDohamakesonagricultureisimportantforincreasingfoodsecurity,protectingfragileenvironmentalresourcesandreforminglocalfarmpolicies.Letmesayafewwordsabouteach.

IncreasingFoodSecurity

（Slide3-Populationdistvs.percapitaincome）

Formanyoftheworld’speople,agricultureremainsasubsistenceactivity.

Ninetypercentofthefoodproducedintheworldisconsumedwithinthecountryproducingit,andmostofthatusageliesoutsideofthecommercialsystem.AcompanylikeCargillonlybeginstotouchthefoodsystemascommercialproductionemergesandagriculturalproductsflowtourbancentersandintointernationalmarkets.Butascommercialfoodtradeemerges,newopportunitiesarisetoeliminatehungerandenhancefoodsecurity.

Thefirstopportunityistolowerfoodcosts.Accesstolow-costimportshelpskeepfoodcostsdown,especiallyforthepoorwhooftenspend70percentormoreoftheirpersonalincometoeat.

（Slide4–Foodconsumptionvs.percapitaincome）

Second,foodtradecreateschoice.Tradeoffersvariety;

italsoprovidesaccesstofoodsyearroundthatoftencanbegrownlocallyonlyonaseasonalbasis.And,itprovidesefficientlocalfarmersnewmarketingopportunities.Theresultishigherlivingstandardsforthoseabletoparticipate.

Finally,foodtradeprovidesmorereliableaccesstosuppliesatlowercost.Cropproductionoftenfluctuates25percentfromoneyeartothenextwithinagrowingregion.Globalproduction,however,typicallyfluctuateslessthanthreepercentannually,asgoodcropsinsomeplacesoffsetpoorcropselsewhere.Moreover,storingfoodtypicallycosts20percentormoreofitsvalueannually,whilemostfoodscanbeshippedhalfwayaroundtheworldfor10percentoftheirvalue,orhalfthecostofstorage.

Inotherwords,foodtradelowerscosts,widenschoicesandprovidesmorereliableaccesstosupplies.Eachisimportantinachievingfoodsecurity.But,withagriculturaltradebarriersonaverage40to50percentofacommodity’svalue,thetradingsystemispreventedfrommakingthecontributiontofoodsecurityitcould.Unlessthesebarriersarebroughtdowndramaticallyonallagriculturalproductsinallcountries,theglobalfoodsystemneededtoenhancefoodsecuritywillnotdevelopadequately.

（Slide5–Populationdistvs.percapitaincomevs.foodconsumption）

Greaterfoodsecurity,however,isnotjustaboutcost,choiceandaccesstosupplies;

italsoisabouttheabilitytopay.Reducingpovertyisamajorkeytofoodsecurity.

Today,abouthalftheworld’spopulation–3billionpeople–liveinabjectpoverty.Roughlythree-fourthsofthesepoorpeopleliveinruralareasdependentuponagriculture.Nocountrythathasraisedthemajorityofitspeopleoutofpovertyhasdonesowithoutattackingthecausesofruralpoverty.

Agribusinesscompanieswanttobringaccesstomorecomplexfoodaspercapitaincomeimprovesaswellaspoverty-reducingtoolstofarmersindevelopingcountries.Wecanoffermoreproductiveinputs;

wecanprovidepracticalfinance;

wecancreatenewmarketopportunities;

wecanshowfarmerswaystolowerormanagerisks.Butwecannotdothesethingsalone.Theyrequirepublicinvestmentsinphysicalinfrastructureandwell-functioningmarketingsystems.Theyalsorequireaneconomicclimatethatwelcomesinvestment,ascapitalflowstowhereit’sneededandwanted.Thisdoesnotmean“specialincentives.”Rather,itmeanscreatingapredictable,levelplayingfieldinwhichcompetitionthroughpriceandservicedeterminessuccess.

Reducingpovertyalsorequiresthatcurrenthighlevelsofagriculturalprotectioncomedown.Subsidizedcompetitionandtrade-distortingdomesticsupportsindevelopedcountriesmustbecurbed.Butmarketaccessbarriersmustbebroughtdowneverywhere.Fortypercentofglobalagriculturaltradealreadyisamongdevelopingcountriesthemselves.Mostofthefuturegrowthindemandwillbeindevelopingcountries,sotheymustjoininasfullpartnersinthecreationofamoreopenglobalfoodsystem.Itisthesurestroutetoreducingpovertyinallcountries.

ThisisanareawheredevelopingcountriesthemselvesfaceanimportantchoiceintheDohanegotiation.Somedevelopingcountrieswanttoextend“specialanddifferentialtreatment”intoawholeseriesofexceptionstoandexemptionsfromreform.Intheirownbestinterests,developingcountriesshouldresistthistemptationtobeexcludedfromreform.Theyshouldinsistondiscipliningdeveloped-countrysubsidypractices,andtheleastdevelopedcountriesmaydeservelongertransitionperiods.But,developingcountriesrefusingtolowertheirownmarketaccessbarrierswillproveaprescriptionforperpetuatingpoverty,notreducingit.

ProtectingFragileEnvironmentalResources

Agriculturaltradeliberalizationcanalsohelpinprotectingfragileenvironmentalresources.Thepressuresofhungerandpovertyoftenresultinagriculturalpracticesinlow-incomecountriesthatharmtheenvironmentintwoways:

byexhaustingthesoil’sproductivityratherthanreplenishingit;

andbyforcingagriculturetoexpandtonewlandsratherthantousethemosthighlyproductivelandsbetter.

（Slide6–Compositionofcaloricintakevs.income）

Thesepressureswillonlyintensifyovertime.Fooddemandwillcontinuetoriseaswillthedemandformorecomplexfoodsasglobalpopulationincreases.Mostofthatpopulationgrowthwillbeconcentratedindevelopingcountries.Higherpercapitaincomesandacceleratingurbanizationinthedevelopingworldwillincreasethedemandformorecomplexdietsandonlyintensifyagriculture’suseofscarcelandandwaterresources.Newtechnologies,likeGPSforpreciseapplicationsofinputsorbiotechnology-modifiedseedstoreducechemicalpesticides,canpreserveneededefficiencygainswhileeasingenvironmentalstresses.

Thisisanareawhereagribusinesscanhelp,ifconditionspermitthegrowthofthecommercialsectorofagriculture.But,manypoorcountriescurrentlypursuepoliciesthatdiscouragefarmersfromincreasingtheirproductivity.Examplesinclude:

overvaluedexchangerates,whichlimitexports;

underinvestmentinruralinfrastructure,whichraisesmarketingcosts;

uncertainlandtitleandcommercialdisputesettlementsystems,whichdeterrisktaking;

orunder-investmentinresearchandregulatorycapacitiestoadaptnewtechnologiestolocalconditions

Feedingagrowingandmoreprosperousglobalpopulationinamoreenvironmentallysustainablewaycanonlybeachievedbyadoptingproductivity-andefficiency-enhancingtechnologies.Andadoptingbettertechnologiesisdirectlylinkedtotheopeningoftradingopportunitiesthatcangeneratecashforreinvestmentandmarketopportunitiesforexpandedoutput.

ReformingLocalFarmPolicies

Beyondfoodsecurityandenvironmentprotection,theDohanegotiationmustfaceintothedistortingeffectslocalfarmpolicieshaveonagriculturaltrade.Almosteverycountrybelievesthatitslocalconditionsrequirespecialtreatmentforitsfarmers.Itisthecumulativeeffectofthesespecialpreferencesthathasmadeagriculturaltradesodistorted.

Infact,however,thereareanumberofglobalprinciplesthatapplyacrossagricultureineverycountry.Iftheyweremorecarefullyobserved,thetaskofreformingdomesticpolicieswouldbeeasierandtheabilityofcountriestocooperateinjointreformundertheDohaagendawouldbegreatlyincreased.Whataresomeofthoseprinciples?

Oneisthatraisingcommoditypricesartificially–eitherthroughdomesticfarmprogramsortradebarriers–doesnotresultinsustainableincomegainsforthemajorityoffarmers.Why?

Forthreesimplebutuniversalreasons.First,farmersrespondtohigherpricesbybiddinguplandvalues,sothebenefitofhighercommoditypric