外文文献及翻译_中国的低碳发展之路 China’s Pathway to Low-carbon Development.docx

外文文献及翻译_中国的低碳发展之路 China’s Pathway to Low-carbon Development.docx

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本科毕业论文

外文文献及译文

文献、资料题目China’sPathwaytoLow-carbonDevelopment

文献、资料来源：

JournalofKnowledge-based

InnovationinChina

文献、资料发表（出版）日期：

Vol.2No.3,2010

院（部）：

管理工程学院

专 业：

工程造价

班 级：

姓 名：

学 号：

指导教师：

翻译日期：

2012.5.28

山东建筑大学毕业论文外文文献及译文

外文文献



China’sPathwaytoLow-carbonDevelopment

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Abstract

Purpose–ThepurposeofthispaperistoexploreChina’scurrentpolicyandpolicyoptionsregardingtheshifttoalow-carbon（LC）development.

Design/methodology/approach–Thepaperusesbothaliteraturereviewandempiricalsystemsanalysisofthetrendsofsocio-economicconditions,carbonemissionsanddevelopmentofinnovationcapacitiesinChina.

Findings–Theanalysisshowsthataholisticsolutionandco-benefitapproachareneededforChina’stransitiontoagreenandLCeconomy,andthat,especiallyfordevelopingcountries,itisnotenoughtohaveonlygoalsregardingmitigationandadaptation.Instead,aconcreteroadmaptowardsaLCfutureisneededthataddresseskeyissuesoftechnologytransfer,institutionalarrangementsandsharingthecostsinthecontextofaglobalclimateregime.Inthislight,itisarguedthatChinashouldadoptanapproachforlow-carbondevelopmentcentredoncarbonintensityreductionoverthenexttenyears.

Originality/value–Thepaperthusprovidesauniquesummary,inEnglish,oftheargumentssupportingChina’scurrentlow-carboninnovationpoliciesfromoneoftheauthorsofthispolicy.Keywords：

Carbon,Sustainabledevelopment,Environmentalmanagement,Governmentpolicy,China

Papertype–Researchpaper

Climatechangehasbecomethemostsignificantenvironmentanddevelopmentchallengetohumansocietyinthetwenty-firstcentury.Respondingtoclimatechangeisthecoretasktoachievingglobalsustainabledevelopment,bothfortodayandforaratherlongperiodoftimefromtoday.Internationalnegotiationsonpreventionofglobalwarmingandrelatedactionsnotonlyconcernthehumanlivingenvironment,butalsodirectlyimpactthemodernizationprocessofdevelopingcountries.Althoughtheprocessofglobalclimateprotectiondependsontheconsensusofourscientificawareness,politicalwills,economicinterests,society’slevelof

acceptance,aswellasmeasuresadopted,alow-carbon（LC）developmentpathis,undoubtedly,thecriticalchoiceoffuturehumandevelopment.

Thesciencebasisofclimatechangeanditsextendedpoliticalandeconomicimplications

Globalwarmingoftheclimatesystemhasbecomeanunequivocalfact.Accordingtoalargeamountofmonitoringdata,globalaveragelandsurfacetemperaturehasrisen0.748Coverthelastcentury（IPCC,2007a,b,c,d）.Andtherateofrisinghasbeenspedup.Inthemeantime,globalaveragesealevelhasbeenconstantlyrisingtoo.GlobalwarminghasposedaseriouschallengetoChina’sclimate,environmentanddevelopment.Intheglobalcontextofclimatechange,China’sclimateandenvironmentarechangingtoo.Forinstance,inthelastcentury,thelandsurfaceaveragetemperaturehaswitnessedanobviousincrease;thoughtheprecipitationhasnotchangedtoomuch,itsinterdecadalvariationsandregionaldisparityhavebeenbig.Inthelast50years,therehavealsobeenmajorchangesinthefrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherandclimateevents（EditorialBoardofChina’sNationalAssessmentReportonClimateChange,2007）.

TheIPCC（2007a,b,c,d）integratedassessmentshowsthatsince1750,humanactivitieshavebeenamajorcauseofglobalwarming,whileinthelast50years,mostoftheglobalwarmingistheconsequenceofhumanactivities,withaprobabilityofmorethan90percent,inparticularfromthegreenhousegases（GHGs）emissionsduetothehumanuseoffossilfuels.Itisforecastthatbeforetheendofthetwenty-firstcentury,globalwarmingwillcontinue,andhowmuchthetemperaturewillrisedependsonwhatactionshumanswilltake.AccordingtheThirdWorkingGroupReportoftheIPCCfourthAssessment（IPCC,2007a,b,c,d）,humanactionstomitigateclimatechangearefeasible,botheconomicallyandtechnologically.Actionstodeploykeymitigationtechnologiesinvarioussectors,adoptingpolicyandadministrativeinterferenceandshiftingthedevelopmentpathwaycouldallcontributegreatlytomitigationofclimatechange.WithChinabecomingtheworld’slargestCO2emitter,Chinafacesincreasingpressuretoreduceitsemissions.Beingaresponsiblecountry,Chinawilltakeactionstotackleclimatechange.Whendevelopingitsmitigationtarget,Chinawillconsidersuchfactorsaslevelofdevelopment,technologyknow-how,socialimpact,internationalimageandanewinternational

climateregimeunderpinnedbyfairnessandeffectiveness.Chinawillmoveintoawin-windevelopmentpathtoachieveclimateprotection,qualityeconomicdevelopmentandotherrelatedpolicytargets.

TodevelopLCeconomy–background,opportunitiesandchallenges

Asillustratedabove,systematicsolutionsarerequiredtotackleclimatechange,duetothecomplexityoftheglobalclimatesystemaswellasitscoverageofbroadsocialandeconomicissues.Afternearlytwodecades’exploration,humansocietyhasrealizedthatinordertoeffectivelymitigateandadapttoclimatechange,wehavetofundamentallyreduceourrelianceonfossilfuels,whichmeansthatwehavetoachievetheshifttoaLCfuturefromthewayweproduceandconsumetohowglobalassetsareallocated（includingindustries,technology,capitalsandresources）andhowtheyaretransferred.FromtheperspectiveofthelimitedstoragecapacityofGHGsintheclimatesystemasaglobalpublicgood,bothahighlevelofhumanwisdomandanewinternationalclimateregimetodealwithmarketfailurearerequired,whichalsodemandstheparticipationofallstakeholdersandtogethertheyshallcharteranewdevelopmentpathway.Humansocietyhastopaytheeconomicpricestosolveclimatewarming.Thus,thethreeflexible“mechanisms”intheKyotoProtocol（jointimplementation,emissionstradingandcleandevelopmentmechanism）demonstrateameaningfulexperimentfortheAnnexIcountriestodecreasetheiremissionsreductioncosts.Whatisneededistomoveforwardfromwherewearenowtoexploreamoreuniversallyapplicablemechanismthatwouldeffectivelyallocatetheresourcesamongthekeyresponsiblestakeholders.TheLCdevelopmentpathembodiesanintegratedsolutionstrategy.ItaimstobuildupaLCsocietythroughLCeconomicdevelopment,triestoachievetherestructuringofallthekeyelementsdiscussedaboveandoffersnewopportunitiesforhumansocietyinresponsetoclimatechangethroughcollaborations.

Asafundamentalvenuetocoordinatesocialandeconomicdevelopment,guaranteeenergy

securityandrespondtoclimatechange,developmentofLCeconomyisgraduallygainingtheneededconsensusfrommoreandmorecountries.Thoughwithoutafixedacademicdefinition,thecoreofdevelopingaLCeconomyistoestablishadevelopmentpathwaythathashigh-energyefficiency,low-energyconsumptionandlowemissions.Underafairandeffectiveinternational

climateregime,theefficiencyofenergyexploration,generation,transmission,transformationanduseisexpectedtobeincreasedgreatlyandenergyconsumptiongreatlyreduced,sothatthecarbonintensityinenergysupplyforeconomicgrowthisdramaticallyreduced,alongwiththecarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumption.Throughincreasingcarbonsinkandusingcarboncaptureandstorage（CCS）technology,theGHGemissionsfromfossilfuelsthatarehardtoreducecanbeoffset.Inthemeanwhile,throughtheestablishmentofreasonableandfairtechnologytransferandfinancialsupportmechanisms,developingcountriescanundertakethecostsofshiftingtowardsLCpatternswhilebeingatthelowestendofthevaluechainintheinternationaltradestructure.TheperspectivesofdevelopmentvalueneedtobechangedinordertopromotethetransitionofconsumptiontowardsasustainableandLCfuture.

Whatneedstobeclarifiedisthat,duetothedifferencesofvariouscountries’socialandeconomiccontexts,thestartingpointstowardsaLCfuturemightvary,asmightthepursuedgoals.Fordevelopedcountriesthataretakingtheleadtocommittoreductiontargets,theirfirstobjectivetodevelopaLCeconomyistoreduceemissions.Fordevelopingcountrieswhoseeconomiesarestillatafastgrowingstage,theirfirstpriorityisdevelopmentandtheirpercapitaenergyconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuetogrow.Theobjectivesshallbemultiple.Atthecurrentstage,itishardtomainstreamtheclimatechangepoliciesdomestically.Whatispossibleistoreduceenergyintensityandincreasecarbonproductivityinordertograduallydecoupleeconomicgrowthandcarbonemissions.WhatisequallyimportantisthatthereexistmanyuncertaintiesindevelopmentofLCeconomy,particularlyfordevelopingcountries.Tremendousdifficultiesandbarriersneedtobeovercomeintheprocess.Attheinternationallevel,theuncertaintiesofdevelopingLCeconomyinclude:

Costsandmarkets–atthismomentwecouldhardlybeabletoestimatethewholecoststhatarerequiredtodevelopaLCeconomy.ItisfarfrombeingassimpleascalculatingthedirectcostsofadoptingLCtechnologies.ItalsotakestimetoestablishLCtechnologyandproductmarkets,especiallynow,whentheglobalfinancialcrisishashiteveryonehardandwhennoonecangiveagoodestimateaboutwhentheworldeconomycouldturnaroundandrecover;thoughmanyexpertsandscholarsholdthattheresponsetothelong-termclimatechangecouldbringnewopportunitiestoeconomicrecovery（Stiglitz,2009;Wang,2008b）.WhatmakesthesituationmorecomplicatednowishowtheUSA,China,India